Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company, Guoquan, is positioned as a leading one-stop brand for home dining products in China, focusing on providing diverse meal solutions [11]. - The market for home dining products is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 22.81%, reaching a retail value of 940 billion yuan by 2027 [6][30]. - Guoquan's competitive advantages include a well-integrated supply chain, extensive community store network, and a high-engagement membership system, which are expected to drive both short-term and long-term growth [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 6.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.27 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 15%, and 14% respectively [3][7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 240 million yuan in 2023 to 652 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth of 96%, 22%, and 19% in the respective years [3][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.09 yuan in 2023 to 0.25 yuan in 2027 [3]. Business Model and Market Position - Guoquan operates a unique "community central kitchen" model, which combines food manufacturing and community retail, allowing for cost efficiency and high-quality product offerings [44]. - The company has established a robust store network, with over 10,761 stores across 31 provinces as of Q3 2025, positioning it as the largest one-stop home dining product retailer in China [47]. - The company has a market share of 3.0% in the home dining product sector, leading among competitors [34]. Growth Strategies - Guoquan plans to enhance its store performance through a dual approach of upgrading existing stores and expanding into rural markets, aiming to replicate its successful business model [7][39]. - The company is actively exploring new business formats, including outdoor dining and ready-to-eat meals, to capture additional market segments [7]. - Digital transformation initiatives are underway to improve operational efficiency and enhance customer engagement through data-driven decision-making [83]. Supply Chain and Logistics - The company has invested in seven proprietary food factories to ensure quality control and cost efficiency across its product range [66]. - A comprehensive cold chain logistics system supports the timely delivery of products to stores, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational reliability [70]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - Guoquan leverages celebrity endorsements and social media marketing to strengthen its brand presence and engage with consumers [72]. - The company has implemented a tiered membership system to enhance customer loyalty and increase repeat purchases [76].

国泰海通主要观点如下： 爆品套餐+会员运营，蹲苗计划后重启增长 ①爆品套餐：2024年5月下旬，公司推出"99元毛肚自由火锅套餐"深受广大消费者欢迎，2024全年该套 餐累计售出超过人民币5亿元。2025年继续推出多款高性价比套餐，通过多层级的抖音账号矩阵增强曝 光，实现销售高增。 ②会员运营：锅圈的会员战略经历了从流量思维到用户资产经营的演进。一方面持续推动会员拉新，结 合知名电视广告，线下社区广告和社交电商平台触达消费者;同时通过完善会员计划，提高会员黏性。 2025年11月锅圈注册会员数突破6000万。 乡镇市场具备开店潜力，品类与时段拓展提升店效 国泰海通发布研报称，预测锅圈(02517)2025-2027年收入分别为76.12/88.32/101.75亿元(人民币，下同)， 增速分别为18%/16%/15%预测公司2025-2027年核心经营利润分别为4.48/5.53/6.75亿元，增速分别为 44%/23%/22%;2025-2027年归母净利润分别为4.35/5.37/6.55亿元，增速分别为89%/23%/22%。参考同行 业可比公司估值，给予公司2026年核心经营利润20xPE，目标市值1 ...

①开店：锅圈升级新乡镇门店，在产品、陈列等方面更匹配下沉市场消费需求。乡镇店盈利模型较好， 未来随着供应链强化，有望在下沉市场展现更优的产品性价比。 ②店效：品类拓展方面，公司逐步布局西餐、饮品、冰品等品类，覆盖一日三餐全场景。时段拓展方 面，公司推出24小时无人零售模式，有效提升了门店创收能力。 探索锅圈小炒和锅圈露营新店型，通过场景延伸增强用户黏性与品牌渗透 2026年1月6日，"锅圈小炒"将进行首店试营业，以智能炒菜机为核心载体，结合锅圈在复合调味料与食 材供应链领域的核心优势，致力在社区场景中为老百姓提供兼具效率与口感的现制中餐。"锅圈露营"则 提供户外餐饮一站式解决方案。新的场景拓展增强了用户黏性与品牌渗透，为公司带来成长动力。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 爆品套餐+会员运营，蹲苗计划后重启增长 ①爆品套餐：2024年5月下旬，公司推出"99元毛肚自由火锅套餐"深受广大消费者欢迎，2024全年该套 餐累计售出超过人民币5亿元。2025年继续推出多款高性价比套餐，通过多层级的抖音账号矩阵增强曝 光，实现销售高增。 ②会员运营：锅圈的会员战略经历了从流量思维到用户资产经营的演进。一方面持续推动会员拉新，结 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The report provides an in-depth analysis of the company's sustainable growth logic in the "at-home dining" market, addressing three key questions: how the scale of 10,000 stores translates into competitive barriers, how to capture opportunities in a fragmented market, and how supply chain and channel innovations create differentiated advantages [8] - The company has established a leading position with a store count of 10,150, optimizing its cost structure through a vertical supply chain [8][11] - The "at-home dining" market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2027, indicating significant opportunities in lower-tier markets [8][31] - The company employs a strategy of explosive products, membership ecosystems, and channel innovations to build a competitive moat [8] Market Data - As of July 9, 2025, the company's current price is HKD 3.39, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 8,999 million [5] - The company has a retail market share of 3.0% in the "at-home dining" segment, ranking first in China [38] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 64.70 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.17% [16] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 71.83 billion, RMB 80.36 billion, and RMB 90.80 billion, respectively [9] - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 2.31 billion, with forecasts of RMB 3.40 billion, RMB 3.96 billion, and RMB 4.63 billion for the following years [9] Competitive Advantages - The company has optimized its product offerings and channels, with a focus on explosive products and a robust membership system, resulting in a registered membership of 41.3 million by the end of 2024 [8][58] - The company has established six production facilities to enhance its supply chain capabilities, which helps in cost optimization and product quality [50][52] Growth Strategy - The company plans to add 10,000 new stores over the next five years, focusing on expanding into lower-tier markets [57] - The establishment of a new production base in Hainan is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and support the company's growth objectives [57]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan, reported a steady growth in its 2024 annual performance, with revenue reaching 6.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Guoquan achieved a gross profit of 1.417 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.9% year-on-year growth, with a gross margin of 21.9% [1] - The core operating profit was 311 million yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Cash reserves increased by 9.8% from 1.936 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to 2.125 billion yuan, while the debt ratio decreased to 3.2% [1] - The company announced a significant increase in shareholder dividends by 39.8%, totaling approximately 200 million yuan [1] Operational Highlights - Guoquan's store count reached 10,150 by December 31, 2024, maintaining a scale above 10,000 stores, supported by the "seedling plan" initiated in the second half of 2023 [1] - The company launched new upgraded store types targeting township markets, adding 287 new township stores throughout the year [2] Online and Membership Growth - Guoquan's exposure through Douyin (TikTok) reached 6.21 billion times in 2024, with the "99 yuan free hot pot set" generating over 500 million yuan in sales [2] - The registered membership count grew by 48.2% to 41.3 million by December 31, 2024, with prepaid card deposits increasing by 36.6% to 990 million yuan [2] Supply Chain Enhancements - The company strengthened vertical integration in its supply chain, adding three new food production factories, doubling the total to six [2] - The proportion of products sold from self-owned factories increased to 20% [2] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 25% compared to 2023, aided by partnerships with logistics providers and a network of 18 digital central warehouses [2] Future Development Plans - Guoquan aims to consolidate its advantages by expanding its sales network and targeting lower-tier markets, with a goal of reaching 20,000 stores in five years [3] - The company plans to enhance its membership ecosystem and leverage IP to improve brand reach [3] - There are intentions to innovate sales channels, including the development of instant retail and smart retail networks using IoT, big data, and AI technologies [4] International Expansion - Guoquan intends to explore overseas markets, particularly in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, by establishing a new paradigm for Chinese food supply chains abroad [4]

通过门店精益化运营、强化供应链等手段，不断夯实自身业务基本面。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 从线下端来看，锅圈在乡镇市场取得了突破式进展。财报提到，锅圈推出的面向乡镇市场的升级店型 ——新乡镇门店可以更好地满足乡镇市场消费者需求，全年净增新乡镇门店287家。这一成果验证了 下沉市场的消费潜力，进一步巩固了锅圈的全国化布局优势，成为其进一步布局下沉市场的重要战略 动作。 锅圈董事长杨明超曾表示，锅圈在未来 5年门店总量要达到两万家。新乡镇店将成为达成这 一目标的突破口之一 。 从线上端来看，锅圈在 2024年通过多层级的抖音账号进行锅圈产品的消费者触达，全年通过抖音渠 道的曝光量达到62.1亿次。其5月底开始推出的"99元毛肚自由火锅套餐"通过抖音等线上渠道引爆 销量，全年累计销售额超过5亿元，成为2024年的现象级单品。 在线上渠道开拓顺利的基础上，锅圈的 "会员工程"进展顺利，带动了会员数量的大幅增长和黏性显 著提升。截至2024年12月31日，锅圈的注册会员数4130万，同比增长48.2%。 此外， 锅圈在 2024年加强了产业端垂直整合的力度 ...