Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company, Guoquan, is a leading brand in the home dining food product sector in China, with over 10,150 stores as of 2024, and a revenue forecast of 6.47 billion yuan for the same year, with 84% of revenue coming from franchisees [1][4]. - The home dining market in China has grown significantly, with a CAGR of approximately 14.7% from 2018 to 2022, and the segment for food products has seen even faster growth at 25.5% [1][34]. - Guoquan's business model includes a deep integration of the supply chain and a focus on optimizing its commercial model, which is expected to enhance profitability [2][55]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoquan is positioned as a leading brand in home dining food products, offering a variety of ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook ingredients across eight categories [12][14]. - The company has established a nationwide franchise network, achieving a store count of 10,150 by the end of 2024 [1][26]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has expanded from 32.48 trillion yuan in 2018 to 56.16 trillion yuan in 2022, with projections to reach 71.09 trillion yuan by 2027 [34]. - The competitive landscape is highly fragmented, with Guoquan holding a market share of approximately 3.0%, leading the industry [39]. Core Advantages - Guoquan employs a "single product, single factory" model, operating seven factories to cover various product categories, which enhances its supply chain efficiency [2][55]. - The company has established a robust network of over 300 suppliers, ensuring a comprehensive supply chain and optimizing production costs [55][56]. Future Outlook - The company aims to expand its store count to 20,000, primarily targeting lower-tier cities, with a projected revenue growth of 13.3% to 95.9 billion yuan by 2027 [2][3]. - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit margins projected to rise as operational efficiencies are realized [3][27].

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.24 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [1] - Gross profit reached 717 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, resulting in a gross margin of 22.1% [1] - Net profit was 190 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 122.5% [1] - Core operating profit also stood at 190 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.3%, marking the largest growth since the company went public [1] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of stores reached 10,400, with a net increase of 740 stores compared to the same period last year [1] - The company has focused on expanding its presence in lower-tier markets, with 270 new stores in rural areas [1] - Over 2,000 stores have been upgraded to smart, unmanned formats, contributing to same-store revenue growth [1] Future Plans and Market Positioning - The company aims to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year, targeting various scenarios including community kitchens and integrated new rural store models [3] - The company is exploring overseas expansion through pilot projects in regions with significant Chinese populations, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe [3][4] - The company plans to enhance its product offerings, particularly in the hot pot and barbecue categories, to improve customer retention and frequency of purchases [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Guoquan Food (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has regained confidence, reporting significant growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2023, with a focus on solidifying its existing market base and preparing for future expansion [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2023, Guoquan achieved revenue of 3.24 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%; gross profit was 717 million RMB, up 17.8%, with a gross margin of 22.1%; net profit reached 190 million RMB, a substantial increase of 122.5% [2][4]. - Core operating profit also stood at 190 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 52.3% year-on-year [2]. Strategic Focus - The company has adopted a strategy of "rooting down and growing up," focusing on consolidating its existing stores, enhancing membership, and improving online operations [4]. - Guoquan plans to accelerate the opening of new stores, targeting various market scenarios, including community kitchens and new town models [7]. Product Development - The company has developed a barbecue product matrix over the past four years, which has helped mitigate seasonal performance fluctuations [6]. - Guoquan aims to continue leveraging its strengths in hot pot offerings while expanding its product range to include more barbecue options [6]. Membership Growth - As of June 30, 2025, Guoquan reported 50.3 million registered members, a year-on-year increase of 62.8%, with a prepaid card balance of 590 million RMB, up 37.2% [9][10]. - The membership system is seen as a key driver for future growth, with plans to increase membership to 60 million by the end of the year [10]. International Expansion - Guoquan is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, with various potential models for expansion, including establishing supply chains and creating new brands [11]. - The company is currently in the exploratory phase for international expansion while maintaining a primary focus on domestic market growth [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading one-stop solution brand for home dining in China, ranking first among all retailers. It focuses on hot pot and barbecue meal categories, providing diverse, high-quality, and cost-effective products through a franchise model, establishing a significant scale advantage with a community central kitchen concept. After experiencing operational fluctuations during the pandemic, the company has innovated its store model, implemented a best-selling product strategy, and strengthened its membership ecosystem, leading to a recovery in same-store sales and a return to growth. Looking ahead, the company is expected to achieve sustainable growth through "quality supply, cost-effectiveness, and food equity" [3][11][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has expanded its sales network from B2B to B2C since its establishment in 2015, growing from 1,441 stores in early 2020 to 10,150 stores by the end of 2024, covering all provinces in China [27][28]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has seen rapid growth, with a market size increasing from 3,248.2 billion RMB in 2018 to 5,615.6 billion RMB in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 14.7%. The proportion of home dining meal products is expected to rise from 4.55% in 2022 to 13.22% by 2027 [11][49][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company offers a three-pronged competitive advantage through products, channels, and supply chain integration. Its products are generally priced 60%-80% lower than social dining channels and about 20% lower than supermarket retail channels. The average profit margin for franchisees is between 8%-10%, indicating a healthy and sustainable model [11][12][14]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 71.2 billion RMB, 82.4 billion RMB, and 95.2 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 10.1%, 15.6%, and 15.6%. The gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 22.4% by 2027. The core operating net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% over three years [12][16].