（原标题：明年看好四大投资主题！摩根大通刘鸣镝：消费板块 估值有吸引力） 在配置方面，刘鸣镝看好提出明年"4+1"投资方向。四大可加仓主题包括"反内卷"、全球AI基建开支增 长、发达国家宽松政策利好出口，以及"K型"消费复苏对食饮及超高端消费的带动；另有一个潜在主题 是地产可能企稳。 "当前市场对消费复苏与地产企稳仍有分歧。近期政策将消费、房地产稳定与防化风险置于更重要的位 置，预计到明年初，尤其是全国两会期间，信号将更加明确。"刘鸣镝说。 近日，在摩根大通举办的线上媒体圆桌会议上，摩根大通中国内地及香港地区股票策略研究主管刘鸣镝 接受证券时报·券商中国记者采访时分享道，展望2026年，MSCI中国指数、沪深300指数及MSCI香港指 数目标点位分别为100点、5200点和16000点，对应当前点位均有约两位数上涨空间。 刘鸣镝指出，2026年四大投资主题值得关注：一是"反内卷"；二是全球AI基建开支增长；三是发达国家 宽松政策对出口的提振；四是"K型"消费复苏对食品饮料及超高端消费的带动。 她同时表示，半导体等板块短期估值已偏高，更看好光伏、电池等领域；消费板块当前估值具备吸引 力，建议投资者不宜过度低配。 ...

Group 1: Home Furnishing Industry - The domestic home furnishing sector is under pressure, with Q2 custom home furnishing experiencing significant challenges and a further divergence in soft furniture performance [2][3] - In H1 2025, domestic home furnishing revenue declined by 0.83% year-on-year, while Q2 saw a 2.89% drop, with net profit attributable to the parent company decreasing by 2.95% and 7.63% respectively [3] - The external home furnishing sector showed growth, with H1 revenue increasing by 11.58% year-on-year and Q2 by 6.56%, although Q2 net profit growth slowed to 0.09% [3] - The resumption of furniture consumption subsidies is crucial for the domestic sector, with expectations for stabilization in the real estate market and recovery in consumer spending [3] Group 2: Paper Industry - The paper industry is facing challenges, with H1 revenue for 13 major paper companies declining by 12.5% year-on-year to 76.13 billion yuan, and net profit dropping to -0.894 billion yuan [4] - The market is currently oversupplied, but there are expectations for a recovery in pulp prices in H2 2025 due to improved downstream demand [4] - Recommendations are made for leading paper companies with integrated cost advantages and strong growth potential to benefit from the anticipated stabilization of pulp prices [4] Group 3: Light Industry Consumption - The light industry sector is experiencing competitive pressure, particularly in personal care products, while the pet and trendy toy segments remain highly prosperous [5] - Personal care product revenue growth has slowed, with notable performance disparities among brands, while some products have seen strong sales due to effective marketing strategies [5] - The pet food industry shows significant growth potential, with domestic brands performing well and external sales growth being particularly strong [5] Group 4: Two-Wheeled Vehicle Industry - The two-wheeled vehicle industry has seen growth driven by new national standards and trade-in policies, with a notable increase in volume, price, and profitability [6] - Leading companies are expanding into mid-to-high-end markets through strategies targeting younger demographics, with overall inventory levels in the supply chain remaining healthy [6] - The industry is expected to further optimize its supply structure, enhancing the competitive advantages of leading firms [6]