2026年03月02日 下周发行环比小幅上升至 2725 亿 7 A 5 -地方债周度跟踪 20260227 日一十分 《2 月实际发行或超 1 万亿元: 地方债周度跟踪 20260214》 2026/02/23 《2 月实际发行或明显大于发行计 -地方债周度跟踪 2026/02/08 20260206 % 《下周置换隐债地方债发行提速， 月或集中在首周发行- 度跟踪 20260130》 -地方债周 2026/02/01 《下周地方债供给明显放量 -110 方债周度跟踪 20260123 》 2026/01/25 《地方债发行或在 1 月下旬提速一 -地方债周度跟踪 20260116》 2026/01/18 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 本期地方债发行与净融资皆环比下降,预计下期地方债发行和净融资将环比上升。本期 (2026.2 ...

2026 年 03 月 02 日 下周发行环比小幅上升至 2725 亿 元 ——地方债周度跟踪 20260227 证 券 研 究 报 告 《2 月实际发行或超 1 万亿元—— 地方债周度跟踪 20260214》 2026/02/23 《2 月实际发行或明显大于发行计 划——地方债周度跟踪 20260206》 2026/02/08 《下周置换隐债地方债发行提速，2 月或集中在首周发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20260130》 2026/02/01 《下周地方债供给明显放量——地 方债周度跟踪 20260123》 2026/01/25 《地方债发行或在 1 月下旬提速— —地方债周度跟踪 20260116》 2026/01/18 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 ⚫ 本期地方债发行与净 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next period. The current period (January 26 - February 1, 2026) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period (February 2 - February 8, 2026) is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, the cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately the same as that in the same period of 2025. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February), the planned issuance scale in January and March is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2]. - The current 10 - year local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period increased, and the weighted issuance term was extended - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period. The current period's issuance/net financing is RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 17.31 years, which is longer than the previous period's 15.88 years [2][11]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term treasury bonds decreased/increased to 8.79/16.58BP respectively in the current period, and the full - field multiples decreased/increased [2][12]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. The cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 7.6% and 8.4% respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, they are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2][15][19]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is RMB 248.85 billion, which is comparable to that in the same period of 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2][25][30]. - In the current period, 19.1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 8.39 billion yuan and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts and repay existing debts were issued respectively [2][23]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate remained flat - As of January 30, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.88BP and 16.10BP respectively, narrowing by 0.14BP and widening by 1.81BP compared to January 23, 2026, and were at the 59.50% and 57.90% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][37][38]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.66%, which is the same as the previous period [2][44]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Ningbo, Qinghai, and Sichuan are better than the national average [2].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous period, but an increase is expected in the upcoming period. The total issuance/net financing for the period from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 748.41 billion yuan/685.66 billion yuan, down from 1,176.64 billion yuan/1,146.68 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance/net financing for the upcoming period (January 19 to January 25, 2026) is 2,315.70 billion yuan/2,031.60 billion yuan [3]. Local Bond Issuance - The weighted average issuance period for local bonds is 19.45 years, shortened from 21.36 years in the previous period [4]. - The issuance rates for 10-year and 30-year local bonds have decreased to 14.70 BP and 19.80 BP, respectively, compared to the previous period [5]. - The overall subscription multiples for the bonds have increased, with the 10-year and 30-year bonds seeing multiples of 27 and 23, respectively, up from 18 and 17 in the previous period [3][5]. Special Bonds and Financing - The progress of newly issued special bonds is faster than in previous years, with the cumulative issuance of general bonds and special bonds as of January 16, 2026, being 0.1% and 2.5% of the annual quota, respectively [3][7]. - The total planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21,179 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][17]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement and repayment of existing debts was 389 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 645 billion yuan for debt replacement as of January 16, 2026 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads at 21.76 BP and 17.64 BP, respectively [23]. - The weekly turnover rate for local bonds has slightly decreased to 0.64% from 0.65% in the previous period [28]. - Current 10-year and 15-year local bonds are considered to have a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread adjustments indicating potential for favorable investment conditions [3][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) will also decline significantly. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has lengthened. The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds shows a narrowing trend for the 10Y and a widening trend for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased. Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of 3/10/15Y local government bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) was 40.037 billion yuan/28.157 billion yuan (compared with 106.955 billion yuan/62.187 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) is 2.037 billion yuan/- 3.174 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.15 years, which was longer than 12.52 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it remains at 96.2% and 103.4%. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original 4.4 trillion yuan quota by 14.95 billion yuan/15.15 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 92.0%/99.7% and 94.5%/99.8%, and in 2023, it was 97.2%/98.0% and 97.3%/98.1% [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in December 2025 is 176.1 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 58.4 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, 17 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 176.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds of 58.4 billion yuan. The previous year's issuance in the same regions was 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan, and the national issuance in the same period of the previous year was 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 1.2 billion yuan, and there was no issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1366.8 billion yuan (1.2 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 2000 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period), with the issuance progress reaching 100%, and this year's quota has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 287.5 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period) [2]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for the 10Y and widened for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of December 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.92BP and 21.48BP respectively, narrowing by 1.12BP and widening by 3.35BP compared with December 12, 2025 (which were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively on December 12, 2025), and were at the 72.20% and 83.20% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.77%, a decrease compared with 0.86% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Guizhou were better than the national average [2]. - Regarding the cost - effectiveness of local government bonds, taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly on a weekly basis this period but are expected to decline significantly next period. As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period [4]. - As of November 28, 2025, the issuance of special new special-purpose bonds this period was 541 billion yuan, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 27 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 788 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds reached 13,508 billion yuan, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 19,989 billion yuan with a progress of 99.9%, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 2,204 billion yuan [4]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a weekly basis. As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period [4]. - Currently, the spreads of 15/20/30Y, especially 15Y, local government bonds over treasury bonds have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - This period (November 24 - 30, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 351.359 billion yuan/326.212 billion yuan (last period was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan), and next period (December 1 - 7, 2025), the expected issuance/net financing is 108.717 billion yuan/60.494 billion yuan [4][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 15.41 years, longer than 14.30 years last period (November 17 - 23, 2025) [4][12]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period. The part exceeding 100% may come from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17 [4][20]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 105 billion yuan in total, including 21.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of November 28, 2025, 11 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 105 billion yuan, compared with 242.6 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan in the same regions and 1,091.3 billion yuan and 21.1 billion yuan nationwide in the same period last year [4][26]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 13,508 billion yuan (54.1 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 19,989 billion yuan (2.7 billion yuan issued this period) with a progress of 99.9%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (only 1.1 billion yuan of quota in Henan remains to be issued); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 2,204 billion yuan (78.8 billion yuan issued this period) [4][22]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Weekly Basis - As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025, and were at the 42.70% and 88.00% historical percentiles since 2023 respectively [4][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Tianjin were better than the national average [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the content. Core View of the Report - Current period's local government bond issuance and net financing both increased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that both will rise significantly in the next period. As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is faster than that of 2024 but slower than that of 2023. The issuance of new local government bonds accelerated in the current period and is expected to continue to speed up in the next period [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July to September 2025 is 286.17 billion yuan, including 161.1 billion yuan of new special bonds. As of July 18, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed their planned issuance scales [2]. - In the current period, 102.7 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, but no special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts were issued. As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 622.2 billion yuan, and the issuance progress of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts reached 91.2% [2]. - In the current period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month. Currently, the spread - mining space for local government bonds is shrinking. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local government bonds have certain allocation value; for institutions such as public funds, local government bonds still have trading value [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. The current period's local government bond issuance volume increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (July 14 - 20, 2025) was 251.183 billion yuan/152.933 billion yuan (compared to 231.79 billion yuan/107.789 billion yuan in the previous period), and it is expected to be 375.754 billion yuan/292.39 billion yuan in the next period (July 21 - 27, 2025) [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 14.57 years, longer than 14.17 years in the previous period (July 7 - 13, 2025) [2]. - As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 61.7% and 54.3% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it would be 64.6% and 59.0%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 48.8%/40.2%, and in 2023 it was 62.7%/57.6% [2][18]. - As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 622.2 billion yuan (with 102.7 billion yuan issued in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 1824.6 billion yuan (0 billion yuan issued in the current period), and the issuance progress reached 91.2%, with 24 regions such as Zhejiang having completed all issuances [2][20]. 2. In the current period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month - As of July 18, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 10.48BP and 16.15BP respectively, narrowing by 0.99BP and 0.44BP compared to July 11, 2025, and were at the 6.10% and 63.20% historical quantiles since 2023 [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.74%, up from 0.71% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 20 - 30Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Hunan were better than the national average [2].