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地方债周度跟踪:新增地方债发行开始提速-20250720
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the content. Core View of the Report - Current period's local government bond issuance and net financing both increased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that both will rise significantly in the next period. As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is faster than that of 2024 but slower than that of 2023. The issuance of new local government bonds accelerated in the current period and is expected to continue to speed up in the next period [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July to September 2025 is 286.17 billion yuan, including 161.1 billion yuan of new special bonds. As of July 18, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed their planned issuance scales [2]. - In the current period, 102.7 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, but no special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts were issued. As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 622.2 billion yuan, and the issuance progress of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts reached 91.2% [2]. - In the current period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month. Currently, the spread - mining space for local government bonds is shrinking. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local government bonds have certain allocation value; for institutions such as public funds, local government bonds still have trading value [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. The current period's local government bond issuance volume increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (July 14 - 20, 2025) was 251.183 billion yuan/152.933 billion yuan (compared to 231.79 billion yuan/107.789 billion yuan in the previous period), and it is expected to be 375.754 billion yuan/292.39 billion yuan in the next period (July 21 - 27, 2025) [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 14.57 years, longer than 14.17 years in the previous period (July 7 - 13, 2025) [2]. - As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 61.7% and 54.3% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it would be 64.6% and 59.0%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 48.8%/40.2%, and in 2023 it was 62.7%/57.6% [2][18]. - As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 622.2 billion yuan (with 102.7 billion yuan issued in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 1824.6 billion yuan (0 billion yuan issued in the current period), and the issuance progress reached 91.2%, with 24 regions such as Zhejiang having completed all issuances [2][20]. 2. In the current period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month - As of July 18, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 10.48BP and 16.15BP respectively, narrowing by 0.99BP and 0.44BP compared to July 11, 2025, and were at the 6.10% and 63.20% historical quantiles since 2023 [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.74%, up from 0.71% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 20 - 30Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Hunan were better than the national average [2].