1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds, including primary and secondary market conditions, such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates. It also provides information on the issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026 and the next week [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 272.5 billion yuan, with a net financing of 255.2 billion yuan, a net increase of 64.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance included 4.8 billion yuan in new general bonds, 78.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, 54.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 135.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (28%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 93%, a decrease compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 7%, 23%, 28%, 15%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds increased significantly, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 25 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 112.6 billion yuan were issued. As of the end of this week, 28 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 804.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds in 2026, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang had relatively large issuance volumes, with 80 billion yuan, 57.3 billion yuan, and 56.4 billion yuan respectively. This week, 5.6 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 118 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 15.1 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 10.3 billion yuan respectively [2][16][20]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 19.2bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 22.5bp. The issuance spreads of 7 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Inner Mongolia, Fujian, and Hebei had relatively high local government bond issuance spreads this week, at 23.8bp, 20.5bp, and 19.3bp respectively [2][25]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of the funds raised by new special bonds in 2026 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (34%), transportation infrastructure (17%), affordable housing projects (14%), social undertakings (11%), and agriculture, forestry, and water conservancy (8%) [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance volumes in January and February, the total disclosed issuance volume for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 936.2 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance volumes of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter are 1387.6 billion yuan and 1570.1 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 135.5 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 70.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 64.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 190.6 billion yuan compared to this week. The issuance includes 19.4 billion yuan in new general bonds, 17.7 billion yuan in new special bonds, 55.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 43.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [3][31][32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had a relatively high secondary spread. Except for the 20 - year and 30 - year local government bonds whose secondary spreads widened, the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spread of 10 - year local government bonds reached 14.4bp. From the historical quantile of the past three years, the historical quantile of the 7 - year local government bond secondary spread was relatively high, at 59%. Regionally, the 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the 10 - 20 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads, exceeding 12bp [4][5][35]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds in Ningxia had a relatively high turnover rate. This week, the trading volume of local government bonds reached 632.1 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.12%. Among them, the trading volume of local government bonds in Guangdong was large, reaching 85.5 billion yuan; the turnover rate of local government bonds in Ningxia was relatively high, reaching 5.7% [5][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of local bonds in the week of March 2, 2026, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading volume and turnover rate, and also presents the issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026 and the upcoming week [1][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local bonds issued 2564 billion yuan in total, with a net financing of 1904 billion yuan, a net financing increase of 2118 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance includes 125 billion yuan of new general bonds, 1272 billion yuan of new special bonds, 211 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 956 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 2725 billion yuan, with a repayment of 173 billion yuan, and a net financing of 2552 billion yuan, a net financing increase of 648 billion yuan compared to this week [1][3][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the issuance proportion of 30Y local bonds is the highest (51%), and the issuance proportion of 10Y and above is 96%, showing an increase compared to the previous issuance week. The issuance proportions of 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds are 1%, 22%, 12%, 11%, and 51% respectively, with the issuance proportion of 30Y local bonds increasing significantly and that of 10Y local bonds decreasing by about 9 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued 1167 billion yuan. In 2026, 27 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 7959 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang have relatively large issuance volumes of 800 billion yuan, 573 billion yuan, and 564 billion yuan respectively. This week, 53 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1055 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 151 billion yuan, 106 billion yuan, and 103 billion yuan respectively [2][15][20]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local bonds is 19.7bp, widening compared to the previous issuance week. The 30Y local bonds have the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 23.4bp. The issuance spreads of 3Y, 10Y, and 30Y local bonds have all widened, while those of other - term local bonds have narrowed. This week, Ningxia, Liaoning, and Hebei have relatively high local bond issuance spreads, at 25.4bp, 22.7bp, and 22.4bp respectively [2][25]. - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, since 2026, the fundraising of new special bonds has been mainly directed towards cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (18%), affordable housing projects (15%), social undertakings (11%), and land reserves (8%) [2][28][29]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance scale in January and February, the total disclosed issuance scale for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 9347 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 13916 billion yuan and 15647 billion yuan respectively [3][31]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spread of 10Y local bonds is relatively high. Except for the narrowing of the secondary spreads of 5Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds, the secondary spreads of other - term local bonds have all widened. The secondary spread of 10Y local bonds reaches 15.9bp. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 7Y local bonds is relatively high, at 64%. Region - wise, the 7 - 10Y local bonds in each region have relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of local bonds over 10Y in medium - level regions are also relatively high, exceeding 12bp [5][35]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous issuance week. The turnover rate of Tibet's local bonds is relatively high. This week, the trading volume of local bonds reached 2390 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.42%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local bonds is large, reaching 231 billion yuan, and the turnover rate of Tibet's local bonds is relatively high, reaching 1.5% [5][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the next period will increase compared to the current period [2]. - The issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds this year is faster than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025 [3]. - As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 26.3% and 18.7% of the annual quota respectively (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9% and 20.5% [3]. - The scale of local government bonds planned to be issued in March 2026 is 934.7 billion yuan, including 306.7 billion yuan of new special bonds [3]. - The current 10 - year and above local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted issuance term was lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds in this period (February 23 - March 1, 2026) was 256.42 billion yuan (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.15 was 322.136 billion yuan), and the expected issuance in the next period (March 2 - March 8, 2026) is 272.484 billion yuan [2][10]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 21.76 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 15.48 years [12]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds decreased to 12.09BP and increased to 23.46BP respectively, and the full - field multiples decreased compared to the previous period [13][14]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and national bonds widened for 10 - year and narrowed slightly for 30 - year, and the weekly turnover rate decreased significantly - As of February 27, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 22.47BP and 20.74BP respectively, widening by 3.46BP and narrowing by 0.66BP compared to February 14, 2026, and were at the 69.40% and 79.30% historical quantiles since 2023 [3][35][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.42%, a significant decrease compared to the previous period's 1.08% [42]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Liaoning, Shandong, and Jilin were better than the national average [3].

Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased this period, with a total issuance/net financing of 322.14 billion yuan/320.50 billion yuan, down from 579.67 billion yuan/578.93 billion yuan in the previous period [5] - The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds shortened to 15.48 years from 16.12 years in the previous period [5] - The issuance of new general bonds and special bonds has progressed faster than in the same period of 2024 and 2025, with cumulative issuance ratios of 24.7% and 15.8% respectively as of February 20, 2026 [5][7] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 240.26 billion yuan, which is comparable to the actual issuance in the same period of 2025 [5][14] - Special new bonds issued this period totaled 25.2 billion yuan, with 33.3 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and no issuance for repaying existing debts [5][12] - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds for 10Y and 30Y bonds slightly narrowed, with weekly turnover rate significantly increasing to 1.08% from 0.78% in the previous period [5][19] Group 3 - The current yield spread for 10Y and 30Y local government bonds is 19.01 BP and 21.40 BP respectively, which are at historical percentiles of 46.50% and 83.00% since 2023 [5][19] - The current value of the 10Y local government bond yield is 1.98%, while the 30Y yield is 2.48% [21] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to continue to provide certain value for investors, particularly in the 20-30Y range [5][19]

Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have increased compared to the previous period, with total issuance/net financing for the period of January 19-25, 2026, reaching 231.57 billion yuan/203.16 billion yuan, up from 74.84 billion yuan/68.57 billion yuan in the previous period [3] - The weighted average issuance term of local bonds has shortened to 15.88 years from 19.45 years in the previous period [3][4] - The issuance of new general bonds is lagging behind previous years, while the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated significantly since late January [3][5] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 totals 23,587 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][13] - The issuance schedule for January and March 2026 is larger than in previous years due to the later timing of the Spring Festival [3][18] - The issuance of special new bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts has reached 1,023 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1,667 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts [3][11] Group 3 - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads decreasing to 21.02 BP and 14.29 BP, respectively [19][22] - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds has increased slightly to 0.66% from 0.64% in the previous period [19][26] - The current 10-year local bonds still offer a certain level of cost-effectiveness, with the spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 BP at the upper limit and 5-10 BP at the lower limit [3][19]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous period, but an increase is expected in the upcoming period. The total issuance/net financing for the period from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 748.41 billion yuan/685.66 billion yuan, down from 1,176.64 billion yuan/1,146.68 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance/net financing for the upcoming period (January 19 to January 25, 2026) is 2,315.70 billion yuan/2,031.60 billion yuan [3]. Local Bond Issuance - The weighted average issuance period for local bonds is 19.45 years, shortened from 21.36 years in the previous period [4]. - The issuance rates for 10-year and 30-year local bonds have decreased to 14.70 BP and 19.80 BP, respectively, compared to the previous period [5]. - The overall subscription multiples for the bonds have increased, with the 10-year and 30-year bonds seeing multiples of 27 and 23, respectively, up from 18 and 17 in the previous period [3][5]. Special Bonds and Financing - The progress of newly issued special bonds is faster than in previous years, with the cumulative issuance of general bonds and special bonds as of January 16, 2026, being 0.1% and 2.5% of the annual quota, respectively [3][7]. - The total planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21,179 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][17]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement and repayment of existing debts was 389 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 645 billion yuan for debt replacement as of January 16, 2026 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads at 21.76 BP and 17.64 BP, respectively [23]. - The weekly turnover rate for local bonds has slightly decreased to 0.64% from 0.65% in the previous period [28]. - Current 10-year and 15-year local bonds are considered to have a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread adjustments indicating potential for favorable investment conditions [3][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in local government bond issuance, highlighting an increase in issuance volume and a lengthening of the weighted average maturity of bonds, while forecasting a decrease in issuance and net financing in the upcoming period [4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds for the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026, reached 1176.64 billion yuan and 1146.68 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 260.00 billion yuan and 174.49 billion yuan in the previous period [4]. - The weighted average maturity of local government bonds increased to 21.36 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 5.26 years [4]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21076 billion yuan, which is comparable to the same period in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Refinancing - A total of 33 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, along with 256 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and 36 billion yuan for repaying existing debts [4]. - The issuance progress for special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts reached 1.3% as of January 9, 2026 [4]. Group 3: Bond Yield and Liquidity - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10-year bonds to 23.18 basis points, while it widened for 30-year bonds to 17.76 basis points [4]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds increased to 0.65%, up from 0.24% in the previous period [4]. Group 4: Regional Bond Performance - Regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao exhibited better yield and liquidity for 7-10 year local government bonds compared to the national average [4]. - The current value of 10-year local government bonds is seen as having a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 basis points at the upper end and 5-10 basis points at the lower end [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds in January 2026, covering both primary and secondary market conditions, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, capital investment directions, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 117.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 117.7 billion yuan, a 100.2 - billion - yuan increase compared to last week. There was no bond repayment. The issued bonds included 1 billion yuan of new general bonds, 87.4 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 29.2 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no refinancing general bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (47%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 96%, showing a significant increase from last week. The 30 - year bond issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 3 - year bond issuance proportion decreased by about 47 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 29.2 billion yuan were issued. In 2026, five regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 68.1 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Shandong and Liaoning have relatively large issuance volumes, with 25.6 billion yuan and 17 billion yuan respectively. This week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds were issued, and as of the end of this week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Qingdao and Ningbo issuing 2.2 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [16][19]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 21.7bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted - average issuance spread at 24.3bp. The weighted - average issuance spreads of 7 - year and 30 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Shandong and Zhejiang issued local government bonds this week, with issuance spreads of 22.5bp and 18.8bp respectively [2][24]. - **Raised Funds Investment Directions**: As of the end of this week, the raised funds from new special bonds in 2026 were mainly invested in cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (47%), transportation infrastructure (14%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (10%) [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan for local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, with a total planned issuance of about 2 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in January is 814.5 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 812.4 billion yuan and 1198 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 70.2 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 9.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 60.9 billion yuan, a 56.7 - billion - yuan decrease compared to this week. The issued bonds will include 22.8 billion yuan of new special bonds, 8.6 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 38.9 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no new general bonds [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spread of 30 - year local government bonds widened, while the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds reached 13.5bp and 13.1bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the secondary spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year local government bonds had relatively high historical quantiles, at 39% and 33% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 15 - year bonds in medium - strength regions, 10 - 15 - year bonds in strong regions, and 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak regions were also relatively high, reaching about 14 - 17bp [4][34]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds of Qingdao and Shandong had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 321 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.59%. Among them, Shandong's local government bonds had a large trading volume of 57 billion yuan, and the turnover rates of Qingdao and Shandong's local government bonds were relatively high, at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [5][40].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current issuance and net financing of local government bonds have increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened this period. The issuance progress of new special bonds at the beginning of this year is faster than in previous years. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to the same period in 2025, with a larger planned issuance scale in January and March [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds. The weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period. Currently, 10 - year and 15 - year local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (January 5 - 11, 2026) is 117.664 billion yuan/114.668 billion yuan (the previous period was 26 billion yuan/17.449 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 70.201 billion yuan/63.925 billion yuan in the next period (January 12 - 18, 2026). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period is 21.36 years, significantly longer than 5.26 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 0.1% and 2.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 0.1% and 2.5%. The cumulative issuance progress was 0.0%/0.0% and 2.8%/0.8% in 2025, and 0.0%/0.0% and 0.0%/0.0% in 2024 [2][18]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 210.76 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of January 9, 2026, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 210.76 billion yuan. The issuance in Q1 26 may be similar to Q1 25, with the front - loaded issuance of refinancing bonds boosting the issuance volume. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The issuance terms of local government bonds in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Beijing in Q1 show a shortening trend, but the term of bonds issued in the first week of this year is still relatively long [2][24]. - This period, 3.3 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 25.6 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively [2][21]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period - As of January 9, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 23.18BP and 17.76BP respectively. Compared with December 31, 2025, they have narrowed by 0.09BP and widened by 2.50BP respectively, and are at the 73.70% and 65.50% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period is 0.65%, an increase compared to 0.24% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][43]. - Currently, 10/15Y local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in 2025 and the planned issuance in 2026Q1, covering aspects such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 2 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 31.2 billion yuan. The issuance volume was 2 billion yuan, and the repayment volume was 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan. Only new special bonds were issued, amounting to 2 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (59%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 84%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds were 16%, 25%, and 59% respectively, with the 20 - year bond proportion increasing significantly and the 10 - year bond proportion decreasing by about 11 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, a total of 2.3097 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds were disclosed for issuance, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou had 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively in special bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of the end of this week, 1.3668 trillion yuan of special special bonds were disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan, and Yunnan issuing 128.9 billion yuan, 112.7 billion yuan, 76 billion yuan, and 73 billion yuan respectively [2][13][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 24.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25.3bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds widened. Hunan and Guangdong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [1][24]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 17.1% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.5% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volumes in October and November, the total disclosed issuance volume for the fourth quarter was about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter were 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Some regions also disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance volume of about 1.68 trillion yuan, including 692.5 billion yuan in January. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter were 619.1 billion yuan and 1.0618 trillion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to issue 26 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 8.6 billion yuan and a net financing of 17.4 billion yuan, a 20.6 - billion - yuan increase compared to this week [3][28][30]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year bonds widened, while those of other - term bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year bonds reached 19.5bp and 16.4bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantiles in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 1 - year bonds were relatively high, at 83% and 61% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak and medium - strength regions were also relatively high, ranging from 13bp to 16bp [5][33][34]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume of Xinjiang's local government bonds was large, reaching 37.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was relatively high, reaching 2.9%. The total trading volume of local government bonds this week was 295.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.54% [5][39].