证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2026 年 3 月 2 日 3 月计划发行 9347 亿元地方债 ——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 2564 亿元，净融资为 1904 亿元，净融资环比增 加 2118 亿元。本周地方债发行量为 2564 亿元，偿还量为 660 亿元，净融资为 1904 亿元。发行债券中，新增一般债 125 亿元，新增专项债 1272 亿元，再融 资一般债 211 亿元，再融资专项债 956 亿元。 【发行期限】本周 30Y 地方债发行占比最高（51%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 96%，与上一发行周相比有所提升。7Y、10Y、15Y、20Y 和 30Y 地方债发行 占比分别为 1%、22%、12%、11%、51%，其中 30Y 地方债发行占比上升较 多；10Y 地方债发行占比下降较多，环比下降约 9 个百分点。 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 19.7bp，较上一发行周有所走阔。 其中 30Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 23.4bp。本周 3Y、10Y、30Y 地方 债发行利差均有走阔，其余期限地方债发行利差有所收窄。本周宁夏、辽宁、 河北发行地 ...

2026 年 03 月 02 日 下周发行环比小幅上升至 2725 亿 元 ——地方债周度跟踪 20260227 证 券 研 究 报 告 《2 月实际发行或超 1 万亿元—— 地方债周度跟踪 20260214》 2026/02/23 《2 月实际发行或明显大于发行计 划——地方债周度跟踪 20260206》 2026/02/08 《下周置换隐债地方债发行提速，2 月或集中在首周发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20260130》 2026/02/01 《下周地方债供给明显放量——地 方债周度跟踪 20260123》 2026/01/25 《地方债发行或在 1 月下旬提速— —地方债周度跟踪 20260116》 2026/01/18 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 ⚫ 本期地方债发行与净 ...

【申万固收】黄伟平 杨雪芳 正文 1. 本期地方债发行量上升，加权发行期限缩短 摘要 本期地方债发行与净融资皆环比上升，预计下期地方债发行和净融资将环比大幅上升。 本期（2026.1.19-2026.1.25）地方债合计发行/净融资2315.70亿 元/2031.60亿元（上期为748.41亿元/685.66亿元），下期（2026.1.26-2026.2.1）预计发行/净融资4392.75亿元/3108.54亿元。从加权发行期限来看，本 期地方债加权发行期限为15.88年，较上期（2026.1.12-2026.1.18）的19.45年有所缩短。从发行情绪来看，本期10/30年地方债较同期限国债的发行利 差分别环比下降至14.64/12.78BP（上期为14.70/19.80BP），全场倍数环比皆有所提升（本期分别为20倍和17倍，上期为27倍和23倍）。 今年新增一般债发行进度慢于往年同期，但新增专项债发行在1月下旬开始明显提速。 截至2026年1月23日，新增一般债/新增专项债累计发行占全年额 度的比例分别为2.7%和4.0%，考虑下期预计发行为7.6%和8.4%。2025年累计发行进度分别为12.6%/4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous period, but an increase is expected in the upcoming period. The total issuance/net financing for the period from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 748.41 billion yuan/685.66 billion yuan, down from 1,176.64 billion yuan/1,146.68 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance/net financing for the upcoming period (January 19 to January 25, 2026) is 2,315.70 billion yuan/2,031.60 billion yuan [3]. Local Bond Issuance - The weighted average issuance period for local bonds is 19.45 years, shortened from 21.36 years in the previous period [4]. - The issuance rates for 10-year and 30-year local bonds have decreased to 14.70 BP and 19.80 BP, respectively, compared to the previous period [5]. - The overall subscription multiples for the bonds have increased, with the 10-year and 30-year bonds seeing multiples of 27 and 23, respectively, up from 18 and 17 in the previous period [3][5]. Special Bonds and Financing - The progress of newly issued special bonds is faster than in previous years, with the cumulative issuance of general bonds and special bonds as of January 16, 2026, being 0.1% and 2.5% of the annual quota, respectively [3][7]. - The total planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21,179 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][17]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement and repayment of existing debts was 389 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 645 billion yuan for debt replacement as of January 16, 2026 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads at 21.76 BP and 17.64 BP, respectively [23]. - The weekly turnover rate for local bonds has slightly decreased to 0.64% from 0.65% in the previous period [28]. - Current 10-year and 15-year local bonds are considered to have a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread adjustments indicating potential for favorable investment conditions [3][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in local government bond issuance, highlighting an increase in issuance volume and a lengthening of the weighted average maturity of bonds, while forecasting a decrease in issuance and net financing in the upcoming period [4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds for the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026, reached 1176.64 billion yuan and 1146.68 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 260.00 billion yuan and 174.49 billion yuan in the previous period [4]. - The weighted average maturity of local government bonds increased to 21.36 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 5.26 years [4]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21076 billion yuan, which is comparable to the same period in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Refinancing - A total of 33 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, along with 256 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and 36 billion yuan for repaying existing debts [4]. - The issuance progress for special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts reached 1.3% as of January 9, 2026 [4]. Group 3: Bond Yield and Liquidity - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10-year bonds to 23.18 basis points, while it widened for 30-year bonds to 17.76 basis points [4]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds increased to 0.65%, up from 0.24% in the previous period [4]. Group 4: Regional Bond Performance - Regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao exhibited better yield and liquidity for 7-10 year local government bonds compared to the national average [4]. - The current value of 10-year local government bonds is seen as having a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 basis points at the upper end and 5-10 basis points at the lower end [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds in January 2026, covering both primary and secondary market conditions, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, capital investment directions, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 117.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 117.7 billion yuan, a 100.2 - billion - yuan increase compared to last week. There was no bond repayment. The issued bonds included 1 billion yuan of new general bonds, 87.4 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 29.2 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no refinancing general bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (47%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 96%, showing a significant increase from last week. The 30 - year bond issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 3 - year bond issuance proportion decreased by about 47 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 29.2 billion yuan were issued. In 2026, five regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 68.1 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Shandong and Liaoning have relatively large issuance volumes, with 25.6 billion yuan and 17 billion yuan respectively. This week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds were issued, and as of the end of this week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Qingdao and Ningbo issuing 2.2 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [16][19]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 21.7bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted - average issuance spread at 24.3bp. The weighted - average issuance spreads of 7 - year and 30 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Shandong and Zhejiang issued local government bonds this week, with issuance spreads of 22.5bp and 18.8bp respectively [2][24]. - **Raised Funds Investment Directions**: As of the end of this week, the raised funds from new special bonds in 2026 were mainly invested in cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (47%), transportation infrastructure (14%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (10%) [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan for local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, with a total planned issuance of about 2 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in January is 814.5 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 812.4 billion yuan and 1198 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 70.2 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 9.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 60.9 billion yuan, a 56.7 - billion - yuan decrease compared to this week. The issued bonds will include 22.8 billion yuan of new special bonds, 8.6 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 38.9 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no new general bonds [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spread of 30 - year local government bonds widened, while the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds reached 13.5bp and 13.1bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the secondary spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year local government bonds had relatively high historical quantiles, at 39% and 33% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 15 - year bonds in medium - strength regions, 10 - 15 - year bonds in strong regions, and 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak regions were also relatively high, reaching about 14 - 17bp [4][34]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds of Qingdao and Shandong had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 321 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.59%. Among them, Shandong's local government bonds had a large trading volume of 57 billion yuan, and the turnover rates of Qingdao and Shandong's local government bonds were relatively high, at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [5][40].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current issuance and net financing of local government bonds have increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened this period. The issuance progress of new special bonds at the beginning of this year is faster than in previous years. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to the same period in 2025, with a larger planned issuance scale in January and March [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds. The weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period. Currently, 10 - year and 15 - year local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (January 5 - 11, 2026) is 117.664 billion yuan/114.668 billion yuan (the previous period was 26 billion yuan/17.449 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 70.201 billion yuan/63.925 billion yuan in the next period (January 12 - 18, 2026). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period is 21.36 years, significantly longer than 5.26 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 0.1% and 2.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 0.1% and 2.5%. The cumulative issuance progress was 0.0%/0.0% and 2.8%/0.8% in 2025, and 0.0%/0.0% and 0.0%/0.0% in 2024 [2][18]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 210.76 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of January 9, 2026, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 210.76 billion yuan. The issuance in Q1 26 may be similar to Q1 25, with the front - loaded issuance of refinancing bonds boosting the issuance volume. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The issuance terms of local government bonds in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Beijing in Q1 show a shortening trend, but the term of bonds issued in the first week of this year is still relatively long [2][24]. - This period, 3.3 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 25.6 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively [2][21]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period - As of January 9, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 23.18BP and 17.76BP respectively. Compared with December 31, 2025, they have narrowed by 0.09BP and widened by 2.50BP respectively, and are at the 73.70% and 65.50% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period is 0.65%, an increase compared to 0.24% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][43]. - Currently, 10/15Y local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in 2025 and the planned issuance in 2026Q1, covering aspects such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 2 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 31.2 billion yuan. The issuance volume was 2 billion yuan, and the repayment volume was 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan. Only new special bonds were issued, amounting to 2 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (59%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 84%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds were 16%, 25%, and 59% respectively, with the 20 - year bond proportion increasing significantly and the 10 - year bond proportion decreasing by about 11 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, a total of 2.3097 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds were disclosed for issuance, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou had 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively in special bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of the end of this week, 1.3668 trillion yuan of special special bonds were disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan, and Yunnan issuing 128.9 billion yuan, 112.7 billion yuan, 76 billion yuan, and 73 billion yuan respectively [2][13][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 24.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25.3bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds widened. Hunan and Guangdong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [1][24]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 17.1% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.5% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volumes in October and November, the total disclosed issuance volume for the fourth quarter was about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter were 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Some regions also disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance volume of about 1.68 trillion yuan, including 692.5 billion yuan in January. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter were 619.1 billion yuan and 1.0618 trillion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to issue 26 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 8.6 billion yuan and a net financing of 17.4 billion yuan, a 20.6 - billion - yuan increase compared to this week [3][28][30]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year bonds widened, while those of other - term bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year bonds reached 19.5bp and 16.4bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantiles in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 1 - year bonds were relatively high, at 83% and 61% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak and medium - strength regions were also relatively high, ranging from 13bp to 16bp [5][33][34]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume of Xinjiang's local government bonds was large, reaching 37.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was relatively high, reaching 2.9%. The total trading volume of local government bonds this week was 295.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.54% [5][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds. In the primary market, there are changes in net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and fundraising directions. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads and trading volume of local government bonds have their own characteristics. [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 40 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 28.1 billion yuan, including 6 billion yuan in new general bonds, 29.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, 3.9 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 0.9 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance is 2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 5.2 billion yuan and a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 64.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [1][3] - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (36%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 87%, showing an increase compared to the previous week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 5%, 36%, 18%, 7%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 30 - year local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 20 - year local government bonds decreased by about 14 percentage points. [1] - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2,298.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds, including 2,000 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou have 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively. This week, 1.2 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1,366.8 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025. [2][19] - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 20.7bp, widening compared to the previous week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of the rest widened. Guangxi, Yunnan, and Xinjiang had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp. [2] - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds since 2025 have been cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). Compared with 2024, the proportion of land reserve (+17.1%) increased significantly, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (-8.5%) decreased significantly. [2] - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in October and November, the total disclosed issuance scale for the fourth quarter is about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter is 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Additionally, 18 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance scale of about 1.07 trillion yuan, including 571.6 billion yuan in January. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 439.6 billion yuan and 625.7 billion yuan respectively. [3] 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spread of 1 - year local government bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds reached 18.9bp and 18.7bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, at 79% and 55% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year local government bonds in strong and medium - strength regions were relatively high, both above 16bp, and the 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region also had relatively high secondary spreads. [5] - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to the previous week. The local government bonds in Ningxia and Shenzhen had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 432 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.79%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local government bonds was large, reaching 40.5 billion yuan; the turnover rates of Ningxia and Shenzhen's local government bonds were relatively high, both reaching 2.3%. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending December 1, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading activities [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 351.4 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 199.2 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 325.9 billion yuan, with new general bonds at 8.7 billion yuan, new special bonds at 225.3 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds at 68.8 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds at 48.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (27%) this week, and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 76%, slightly down from last week. The 30 - year bonds' issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 5 - year bonds' decreased by about 8 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 82.7 billion yuan were issued. As of now, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue special refinancing bonds totaling 2.2802 trillion yuan in 2025, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou are expected to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 20.4bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 25.8bp, and spreads for all terms widened. Jilin, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 25bp [1][25]. - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve increased by 16.9% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.3% [2][28]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their fourth - quarter 2025 local government bond issuance plans. Considering the actual issuance in October and November, the total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is nearly 1.6 trillion yuan, with 104.9 billion yuan in December. Next week, 108.7 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment amount of 48.2 billion yuan and net financing of 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 265.4 billion yuan compared to this week [3][33]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, while those of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 18.7bp and 16.4bp respectively. In terms of historical quantiles over the past three years, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year bonds were at relatively high levels, 44% and 70% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of bonds over 20 - year in each region were relatively high, between 14 - 18bp, and those of bonds over 10 - year in medium - level regions were also relatively high [5][36]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. Shenzhen and Chongqing had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 379 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.70%. Guangdong had the largest trading volume at 3.62 billion yuan, while Shenzhen and Chongqing had the highest turnover rates at 2.0% and 1.6% respectively [5][41].