2025 年 11 月 23 日 減国债利差皆收窄,下周发 開東 -地方债周度跟踪 20251121 減国债利美表 愤反行提读 地方债周度跟踪 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄 下吉发行明显提速 -邯方债洁度 限层 20251107 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速 关注中长端地方 地方债周度跟踪 债性价比 20251031 》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速 偿还存量债务 珠再融资债再发行 地方信信 2025/10/26 度跟踪 20251024》 《5000 亿元结存限额下达,四季度 地方债发行或继续放量 -地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共15页 本期地方债发行与净融资发行环比皆大 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明显 提速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251121 相关研究 《新增债发行提速，减国债利差表 现分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251114》 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 ...

2025 年 11 月 16 日 新增债发行提速，减国债利差表现 分化 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251114 相关研究 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《发行持续放缓，减国债利差表现 分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251010 》 2025/10/12 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 债券周评 目录 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a week-on-week basis next period. The current weighted issuance term of local government bonds has lengthened compared to the previous period [2]. - The current issuance progress of new local government bonds is relatively slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan, including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. - The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds this period (November 3 - November 9, 2025) was 91.607 billion yuan (compared to 270.682 billion yuan in the previous period), and the net financing was -33.641 billion yuan. The expected issuance and net financing next period (November 10 - November 16, 2025) are 285.067 billion yuan and 242.792 billion yuan respectively [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, which was longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 it was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][13][16]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 71.33 billion yuan for local government bonds from November to December 2025 (70.16 billion yuan in November and 1.17 billion yuan in December), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan in November and 0.36 billion yuan in December) [2][24]. - This period, 1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 billion yuan and 5.7 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 5.07 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025. They are at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a week-on-week basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][37]. - Taking the 10Y local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased both in the current period and are expected to decline in the next period. The current issuance and net financing are 825.28 billion yuan and 386.37 billion yuan respectively, and the next period's expected issuance and net financing are 323.01 billion yuan and -197.81 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The issuance progress of new local government bonds has slowed down, and the cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.0% of the annual quota respectively [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 892.1 billion yuan, including 500.9 billion yuan of new special bonds [3]. - The yield spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y local government bonds narrowed. The weekly turnover rate decreased compared to the previous period [3]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploring the yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has increased, and 10Y local government bonds are more cost - effective [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased in the current period, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The current issuance of local government bonds totaled 825.28 billion yuan (compared to 1960.51 billion yuan in the previous period), and the next - period forecast issuance is 323.01 billion yuan [3][10]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 12.93 years, significantly shorter than the 19.81 years in the previous period [3][12]. - As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the next - period forecast issuance, they are 83.9% and 83.4% respectively [3][13][17]. - As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds is 1202.9 billion yuan (1.7 billion yuan was issued in the current period), and the cumulative issuance of replacement hidden - debt special refinancing bonds is 1986.2 billion yuan (0 billion yuan was issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 99.3% [3]. 2. The yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period widened for 10Y and narrowed for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of October 10, 2025, the yield spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 25.40BP and 15.71BP respectively, widening by 3.08BP and narrowing by 2.59BP compared to September 26, 2025 [3][27][32]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.35%, a decrease compared to 0.89% in the previous period [3][40]. - The yield and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Jilin, Tianjin, and Sichuan are better than the national average [3].

——地方债周度跟踪 20250919 2025 年 09 月 21 日 发行回落，新增地方债累计发行进 度约 80% 债 券 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 《新增地方债发行提速，26 年提前 批额度下达——地方债周度跟踪 20250912》 2025/09/14 《发行明显回落，但下周再提速— —地方债周度跟踪 20250905》 2025/09/08 《发行保持高位，但下周发行较少— —地方债周度跟踪 20250829》 2025/08/31 《新增地方债发行提速，30Y 减国债 利差大幅走阔 ——地方债周度跟 踪 20250822》 2025/08/24 《发行继续降速，10Y 地方债减国债 利差走阔 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250815》 2025/08/17 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正 ...