Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant narrowing of the yield spread between 30-year local government bonds and national treasury bonds, indicating a shift in the bond market dynamics and a notable increase in upcoming supply of local government bonds [2] Group 1: Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between 30-year local government bonds and national treasury bonds has narrowed significantly, reflecting changing investor sentiment and market conditions [2] - This narrowing spread suggests a potential increase in demand for local government bonds as investors reassess risk and return profiles [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - There is a clear indication that the supply of local government bonds is set to increase in the upcoming period, which may impact pricing and investor strategies [2] - The anticipated rise in supply could lead to adjustments in market liquidity and interest rates, influencing overall bond market performance [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds, including primary and secondary market conditions, such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates. It also provides information on the issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026 and the next week [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 272.5 billion yuan, with a net financing of 255.2 billion yuan, a net increase of 64.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance included 4.8 billion yuan in new general bonds, 78.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, 54.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 135.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (28%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 93%, a decrease compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 7%, 23%, 28%, 15%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds increased significantly, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 25 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 112.6 billion yuan were issued. As of the end of this week, 28 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 804.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds in 2026, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang had relatively large issuance volumes, with 80 billion yuan, 57.3 billion yuan, and 56.4 billion yuan respectively. This week, 5.6 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 118 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 15.1 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 10.3 billion yuan respectively [2][16][20]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 19.2bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 22.5bp. The issuance spreads of 7 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Inner Mongolia, Fujian, and Hebei had relatively high local government bond issuance spreads this week, at 23.8bp, 20.5bp, and 19.3bp respectively [2][25]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of the funds raised by new special bonds in 2026 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (34%), transportation infrastructure (17%), affordable housing projects (14%), social undertakings (11%), and agriculture, forestry, and water conservancy (8%) [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance volumes in January and February, the total disclosed issuance volume for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 936.2 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance volumes of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter are 1387.6 billion yuan and 1570.1 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 135.5 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 70.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 64.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 190.6 billion yuan compared to this week. The issuance includes 19.4 billion yuan in new general bonds, 17.7 billion yuan in new special bonds, 55.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 43.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [3][31][32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had a relatively high secondary spread. Except for the 20 - year and 30 - year local government bonds whose secondary spreads widened, the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spread of 10 - year local government bonds reached 14.4bp. From the historical quantile of the past three years, the historical quantile of the 7 - year local government bond secondary spread was relatively high, at 59%. Regionally, the 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the 10 - 20 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads, exceeding 12bp [4][5][35]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds in Ningxia had a relatively high turnover rate. This week, the trading volume of local government bonds reached 632.1 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.12%. Among them, the trading volume of local government bonds in Guangdong was large, reaching 85.5 billion yuan; the turnover rate of local government bonds in Ningxia was relatively high, reaching 5.7% [5][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the next period will increase compared to the current period [2]. - The issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds this year is faster than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025 [3]. - As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 26.3% and 18.7% of the annual quota respectively (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9% and 20.5% [3]. - The scale of local government bonds planned to be issued in March 2026 is 934.7 billion yuan, including 306.7 billion yuan of new special bonds [3]. - The current 10 - year and above local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted issuance term was lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds in this period (February 23 - March 1, 2026) was 256.42 billion yuan (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.15 was 322.136 billion yuan), and the expected issuance in the next period (March 2 - March 8, 2026) is 272.484 billion yuan [2][10]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 21.76 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 15.48 years [12]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds decreased to 12.09BP and increased to 23.46BP respectively, and the full - field multiples decreased compared to the previous period [13][14]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and national bonds widened for 10 - year and narrowed slightly for 30 - year, and the weekly turnover rate decreased significantly - As of February 27, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 22.47BP and 20.74BP respectively, widening by 3.46BP and narrowing by 0.66BP compared to February 14, 2026, and were at the 69.40% and 79.30% historical quantiles since 2023 [3][35][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.42%, a significant decrease compared to the previous period's 1.08% [42]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Liaoning, Shandong, and Jilin were better than the national average [3].

Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased this period, with a total issuance/net financing of 322.14 billion yuan/320.50 billion yuan, down from 579.67 billion yuan/578.93 billion yuan in the previous period [5] - The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds shortened to 15.48 years from 16.12 years in the previous period [5] - The issuance of new general bonds and special bonds has progressed faster than in the same period of 2024 and 2025, with cumulative issuance ratios of 24.7% and 15.8% respectively as of February 20, 2026 [5][7] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 240.26 billion yuan, which is comparable to the actual issuance in the same period of 2025 [5][14] - Special new bonds issued this period totaled 25.2 billion yuan, with 33.3 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and no issuance for repaying existing debts [5][12] - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds for 10Y and 30Y bonds slightly narrowed, with weekly turnover rate significantly increasing to 1.08% from 0.78% in the previous period [5][19] Group 3 - The current yield spread for 10Y and 30Y local government bonds is 19.01 BP and 21.40 BP respectively, which are at historical percentiles of 46.50% and 83.00% since 2023 [5][19] - The current value of the 10Y local government bond yield is 1.98%, while the 30Y yield is 2.48% [21] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to continue to provide certain value for investors, particularly in the 20-30Y range [5][19]

Group 1: Report Highlights - The widening spread between special-purpose bonds and general bonds was mainly driven by supply shocks and the differentiated risk weights of commercial banks. The relative relationship of spreads between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds was driven by changes in Treasury yields. There were regional differentiations in the primary spread levels of local government bonds, and the difference between primary and secondary spreads verified the differences in the marketization degree of issuance in each region. The liquidity level of local government bonds affected the historical spread changes. There were certain differences in the number of market quotes from brokers in each region, reflecting the differences in liquidity. Moreover, there were regular differentiations in the trading preferences of each province and various institutional entities [3]. Group 2: Core Views - The report systematically analyzed the investment value of local government bonds from two core dimensions: the changes in local government bond spreads and their influencing factors, and the trading and buying situations in the local government bond market. It provided in - depth analyses of the driving factors behind the widening of the spread between special - purpose bonds and general bonds from late 2024 to early 2025 and the change in the relative relationship between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds around Q4 2024. It also focused on the regional differentiations in primary and secondary spreads and their causes, and summarized the regular characteristics in trading and net - buying preferences in the market [78]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Exploration of Factors Affecting Local Government Bond Spreads 1.1 Widening of Spread between Special - Purpose Bonds and General Bonds - From 2020 to early 2024, the spread between special - purpose bonds and general bonds remained stable within the range of - 4 to 4bp. However, from late 2024 to early 2025, the spread widened significantly, reaching a peak of 8bp in early May 2025 and then gradually falling back to around 2bp. The main reasons were the concentrated supply shock of special - purpose bonds and the differentiated risk weights of commercial banks. In November and December 2024, over 2 trillion yuan of special - purpose bonds were issued, which exceeded the market demand and broke the supply - demand balance. The "Commercial Bank Capital Management Measures" implemented on January 1, 2024, differentiated the risk exposure weights of general bonds (10%) and special - purpose bonds (20%), which increased the capital occupation cost of commercial banks for special - purpose bonds and reduced their allocation demand [14][18]. 1.2 Changes in Spreads of 20Y and 30Y Local Government Bonds - The spread between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds changed around Q4 2024, with the spread of 30Y local government bonds minus that of 20Y local government bonds turning from negative to positive. This change was mainly due to the change in the relative level of 20Y and 30Y Treasury yields, as the change point of Treasury yields coincided with that of local government bond spreads [32]. 1.3 Difference between Primary and Secondary Spreads - From 2015 - 2025, the primary spreads of local government bonds showed significant regional differentiations and term - related characteristics. Regionally, the primary spreads were inversely related to the regional economic development level, with higher spreads in the central, western, and northeastern regions. In terms of term, the primary spread of 1Y local government bonds was relatively low, while those of 2 - 10Y bonds were generally over 20bp, and the spread of 5Y bonds was the highest at 23.21bp. The spreads of 15 - 30Y long - term local government bonds fluctuated around 18bp. The difference between primary and secondary spreads reflected the regional differentiations in the marketization degree of local government bond issuance. Some provinces had a small difference between primary and secondary spreads, while in some areas such as Ningbo, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the non - marketization of issuance was more serious [35][40]. 1.4 Factors Affecting Spreads - The offensive and defensive characteristics of local government bonds changed significantly around August 2023. Before August 2023, local government bonds had stronger defensive attributes than Treasury bonds, and their spread changes were mainly passive. After August 2023, their offensive attributes became prominent, and the active widening and narrowing of spreads were obvious. The main reasons were the change in the participation of trading desks and the impact of policies on the supply term structure of local government bonds. The increase in the supply of special - purpose bonds also led to the widening of spreads in some stages [45][49][52]. 2. Analysis of Local Government Bond Trading and Buying 2.1 Bid/Ofr Quote Quantity and Spread - According to the sampling data of 10Y new local government bonds issued after August 8, 2025, in the broker market, there were significant differences in the liquidity of local government bonds in each region. Some regions had high broker - market activity, with sufficient bid and ofr quotes and active trading, while some regions had poor liquidity. The average bid - ofr difference of the sampled provinces was about 1.68bp, and the ChinaBond valuation price was generally 1 - 2bp higher than the ofr price [58]. 2.2 Regional Trading Patterns - By comparing the trading volume and trading value of local government bonds in 2024 and 2025, it was found that some regions had obvious trading preferences for certain - term local government bonds. For example, 1 - 3Y bonds were more actively traded in Zhejiang, 5 - 7Y bonds were more popular in Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Jiangsu, and long - term bonds with a term of over 20Y were actively traded in Fujian, Shandong, and Sichuan. The weighted average trading terms calculated by trading volume and trading value were consistent with the above - mentioned trading preferences [63]. 2.3 Net Buying - Based on the data from 2021 - 2025, different institutional entities had different net - buying preferences for local government bonds of different terms. Large - scale banks mainly focused on local government bonds with a term of less than seven years, rural commercial banks had a more diverse range of term preferences, city commercial banks' net - buying characteristics were similar to those of rural commercial banks, securities firms' self - operation mainly concentrated on 1 - 5Y local government bonds, funds' net - buying terms were more dispersed, and insurance companies showed an increasing preference for long - term local government bonds and were the largest net - buying entities for 15 - 30Y local government bonds [68]. 2.4 Cross - Market Trading Comparison - After the optimization of the local government bond transfer - custody business, it became more convenient to transfer local government bonds between the inter - bank market and the exchange market. The inter - bank market had the largest trading volume of local government bonds, and the absolute values of the differences between the trading prices in the inter - bank and broker markets and the ChinaBond valuation were smaller. The Shanghai Stock Exchange had a larger trading volume than the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with higher trading yields [73][76].

Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have increased compared to the previous period, with total issuance/net financing for the period of January 19-25, 2026, reaching 231.57 billion yuan/203.16 billion yuan, up from 74.84 billion yuan/68.57 billion yuan in the previous period [3] - The weighted average issuance term of local bonds has shortened to 15.88 years from 19.45 years in the previous period [3][4] - The issuance of new general bonds is lagging behind previous years, while the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated significantly since late January [3][5] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 totals 23,587 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][13] - The issuance schedule for January and March 2026 is larger than in previous years due to the later timing of the Spring Festival [3][18] - The issuance of special new bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts has reached 1,023 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1,667 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts [3][11] Group 3 - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads decreasing to 21.02 BP and 14.29 BP, respectively [19][22] - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds has increased slightly to 0.66% from 0.64% in the previous period [19][26] - The current 10-year local bonds still offer a certain level of cost-effectiveness, with the spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 BP at the upper limit and 5-10 BP at the lower limit [3][19]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous period, but an increase is expected in the upcoming period. The total issuance/net financing for the period from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 748.41 billion yuan/685.66 billion yuan, down from 1,176.64 billion yuan/1,146.68 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance/net financing for the upcoming period (January 19 to January 25, 2026) is 2,315.70 billion yuan/2,031.60 billion yuan [3]. Local Bond Issuance - The weighted average issuance period for local bonds is 19.45 years, shortened from 21.36 years in the previous period [4]. - The issuance rates for 10-year and 30-year local bonds have decreased to 14.70 BP and 19.80 BP, respectively, compared to the previous period [5]. - The overall subscription multiples for the bonds have increased, with the 10-year and 30-year bonds seeing multiples of 27 and 23, respectively, up from 18 and 17 in the previous period [3][5]. Special Bonds and Financing - The progress of newly issued special bonds is faster than in previous years, with the cumulative issuance of general bonds and special bonds as of January 16, 2026, being 0.1% and 2.5% of the annual quota, respectively [3][7]. - The total planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21,179 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][17]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement and repayment of existing debts was 389 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 645 billion yuan for debt replacement as of January 16, 2026 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads at 21.76 BP and 17.64 BP, respectively [23]. - The weekly turnover rate for local bonds has slightly decreased to 0.64% from 0.65% in the previous period [28]. - Current 10-year and 15-year local bonds are considered to have a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread adjustments indicating potential for favorable investment conditions [3][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in local government bond issuance, highlighting an increase in issuance volume and a lengthening of the weighted average maturity of bonds, while forecasting a decrease in issuance and net financing in the upcoming period [4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds for the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026, reached 1176.64 billion yuan and 1146.68 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 260.00 billion yuan and 174.49 billion yuan in the previous period [4]. - The weighted average maturity of local government bonds increased to 21.36 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 5.26 years [4]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21076 billion yuan, which is comparable to the same period in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Refinancing - A total of 33 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, along with 256 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and 36 billion yuan for repaying existing debts [4]. - The issuance progress for special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts reached 1.3% as of January 9, 2026 [4]. Group 3: Bond Yield and Liquidity - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10-year bonds to 23.18 basis points, while it widened for 30-year bonds to 17.76 basis points [4]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds increased to 0.65%, up from 0.24% in the previous period [4]. Group 4: Regional Bond Performance - Regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao exhibited better yield and liquidity for 7-10 year local government bonds compared to the national average [4]. - The current value of 10-year local government bonds is seen as having a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 basis points at the upper end and 5-10 basis points at the lower end [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current issuance and net financing of local government bonds have increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened this period. The issuance progress of new special bonds at the beginning of this year is faster than in previous years. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to the same period in 2025, with a larger planned issuance scale in January and March [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds. The weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period. Currently, 10 - year and 15 - year local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (January 5 - 11, 2026) is 117.664 billion yuan/114.668 billion yuan (the previous period was 26 billion yuan/17.449 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 70.201 billion yuan/63.925 billion yuan in the next period (January 12 - 18, 2026). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period is 21.36 years, significantly longer than 5.26 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 0.1% and 2.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 0.1% and 2.5%. The cumulative issuance progress was 0.0%/0.0% and 2.8%/0.8% in 2025, and 0.0%/0.0% and 0.0%/0.0% in 2024 [2][18]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 210.76 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of January 9, 2026, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 210.76 billion yuan. The issuance in Q1 26 may be similar to Q1 25, with the front - loaded issuance of refinancing bonds boosting the issuance volume. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The issuance terms of local government bonds in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Beijing in Q1 show a shortening trend, but the term of bonds issued in the first week of this year is still relatively long [2][24]. - This period, 3.3 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 25.6 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively [2][21]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period - As of January 9, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 23.18BP and 17.76BP respectively. Compared with December 31, 2025, they have narrowed by 0.09BP and widened by 2.50BP respectively, and are at the 73.70% and 65.50% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period is 0.65%, an increase compared to 0.24% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][43]. - Currently, 10/15Y local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis this period, and are expected to increase next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) was 20.37 billion yuan/-31.74 billion yuan, compared with 400.37 billion yuan/281.57 billion yuan in the previous period. Next period (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), it is expected to be 260.00 billion yuan/174.49 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 - billion - yuan carry - over quota. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 96.2% and 103.8% considering the next - period issuance [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is 168.09 billion yuan. As of December 26, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale. The issuance in 26Q1 may be similar to that in 25Q1, with refinancing bonds issued earlier. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger [2]. - There was no issuance of special new special bonds this period, nor of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 136.68 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 200 billion yuan, with the issuance progress at 100%; and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 28.75 billion yuan [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and 30Y this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a week - on - week basis. As of December 26, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 20.24BP and 15.67BP respectively, narrowing by 2.68BP and 5.81BP compared with December 19, 2025 [2]. - Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of current 3/10/15Y local government bonds. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be 20 - 25BP above the issuance spread floor, and the bottom may be near the issuance spread floor [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Declined and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - The issuance of local government bonds in this period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) was 20.37 billion yuan, compared with 400.37 billion yuan in the previous period. Next period (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the forecasted issuance is 260.00 billion yuan [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 15.14 years, shorter than 16.15 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 96.2% and 103.8% considering the next - period issuance [2][18]. - There was no issuance of special new special bonds this period, nor of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 136.68 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 200 billion yuan, with the issuance progress at 100%; and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 28.75 billion yuan [2][20]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is 168.09 billion yuan. As of December 26, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale. The issuance in 26Q1 may be similar to that in 25Q1, with refinancing bonds issued earlier. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 69.25 billion yuan, 24.22 billion yuan, and 74.62 billion yuan respectively [2][24]. - The issuance terms of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Zhejiang, where term data are disclosed, show signs of shortening compared with the same period last year [2][31]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Narrowed for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Week - on - Week Basis - As of December 26, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 20.24BP and 15.67BP respectively, narrowing by 2.68BP and 5.81BP compared with December 19, 2025 [2][37]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.66%, down from 0.77% in the previous period [2][47]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Jilin this period are better than the national average [2].