地方债利差
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地方债周度跟踪:下周发行环比小幅上升至2725亿元-20260302
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-03-02 07:06
2026 年 03 月 02 日 下周发行环比小幅上升至 2725 亿 元 ——地方债周度跟踪 20260227 证 券 研 究 报 告 《2 月实际发行或超 1 万亿元—— 地方债周度跟踪 20260214》 2026/02/23 《2 月实际发行或明显大于发行计 划——地方债周度跟踪 20260206》 2026/02/08 《下周置换隐债地方债发行提速,2 月或集中在首周发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20260130》 2026/02/01 《下周地方债供给明显放量——地 方债周度跟踪 20260123》 2026/01/25 《地方债发行或在 1 月下旬提速— —地方债周度跟踪 20260116》 2026/01/18 《地方债,正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 ⚫ 本期地方债发行与净 ...
走在债市曲线之前系列报告(十五):从曲线与成交看地方债投资价值(下)
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-09 15:06
Group 1: Report Highlights - The widening spread between special-purpose bonds and general bonds was mainly driven by supply shocks and the differentiated risk weights of commercial banks. The relative relationship of spreads between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds was driven by changes in Treasury yields. There were regional differentiations in the primary spread levels of local government bonds, and the difference between primary and secondary spreads verified the differences in the marketization degree of issuance in each region. The liquidity level of local government bonds affected the historical spread changes. There were certain differences in the number of market quotes from brokers in each region, reflecting the differences in liquidity. Moreover, there were regular differentiations in the trading preferences of each province and various institutional entities [3]. Group 2: Core Views - The report systematically analyzed the investment value of local government bonds from two core dimensions: the changes in local government bond spreads and their influencing factors, and the trading and buying situations in the local government bond market. It provided in - depth analyses of the driving factors behind the widening of the spread between special - purpose bonds and general bonds from late 2024 to early 2025 and the change in the relative relationship between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds around Q4 2024. It also focused on the regional differentiations in primary and secondary spreads and their causes, and summarized the regular characteristics in trading and net - buying preferences in the market [78]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Exploration of Factors Affecting Local Government Bond Spreads 1.1 Widening of Spread between Special - Purpose Bonds and General Bonds - From 2020 to early 2024, the spread between special - purpose bonds and general bonds remained stable within the range of - 4 to 4bp. However, from late 2024 to early 2025, the spread widened significantly, reaching a peak of 8bp in early May 2025 and then gradually falling back to around 2bp. The main reasons were the concentrated supply shock of special - purpose bonds and the differentiated risk weights of commercial banks. In November and December 2024, over 2 trillion yuan of special - purpose bonds were issued, which exceeded the market demand and broke the supply - demand balance. The "Commercial Bank Capital Management Measures" implemented on January 1, 2024, differentiated the risk exposure weights of general bonds (10%) and special - purpose bonds (20%), which increased the capital occupation cost of commercial banks for special - purpose bonds and reduced their allocation demand [14][18]. 1.2 Changes in Spreads of 20Y and 30Y Local Government Bonds - The spread between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds changed around Q4 2024, with the spread of 30Y local government bonds minus that of 20Y local government bonds turning from negative to positive. This change was mainly due to the change in the relative level of 20Y and 30Y Treasury yields, as the change point of Treasury yields coincided with that of local government bond spreads [32]. 1.3 Difference between Primary and Secondary Spreads - From 2015 - 2025, the primary spreads of local government bonds showed significant regional differentiations and term - related characteristics. Regionally, the primary spreads were inversely related to the regional economic development level, with higher spreads in the central, western, and northeastern regions. In terms of term, the primary spread of 1Y local government bonds was relatively low, while those of 2 - 10Y bonds were generally over 20bp, and the spread of 5Y bonds was the highest at 23.21bp. The spreads of 15 - 30Y long - term local government bonds fluctuated around 18bp. The difference between primary and secondary spreads reflected the regional differentiations in the marketization degree of local government bond issuance. Some provinces had a small difference between primary and secondary spreads, while in some areas such as Ningbo, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the non - marketization of issuance was more serious [35][40]. 1.4 Factors Affecting Spreads - The offensive and defensive characteristics of local government bonds changed significantly around August 2023. Before August 2023, local government bonds had stronger defensive attributes than Treasury bonds, and their spread changes were mainly passive. After August 2023, their offensive attributes became prominent, and the active widening and narrowing of spreads were obvious. The main reasons were the change in the participation of trading desks and the impact of policies on the supply term structure of local government bonds. The increase in the supply of special - purpose bonds also led to the widening of spreads in some stages [45][49][52]. 2. Analysis of Local Government Bond Trading and Buying 2.1 Bid/Ofr Quote Quantity and Spread - According to the sampling data of 10Y new local government bonds issued after August 8, 2025, in the broker market, there were significant differences in the liquidity of local government bonds in each region. Some regions had high broker - market activity, with sufficient bid and ofr quotes and active trading, while some regions had poor liquidity. The average bid - ofr difference of the sampled provinces was about 1.68bp, and the ChinaBond valuation price was generally 1 - 2bp higher than the ofr price [58]. 2.2 Regional Trading Patterns - By comparing the trading volume and trading value of local government bonds in 2024 and 2025, it was found that some regions had obvious trading preferences for certain - term local government bonds. For example, 1 - 3Y bonds were more actively traded in Zhejiang, 5 - 7Y bonds were more popular in Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Jiangsu, and long - term bonds with a term of over 20Y were actively traded in Fujian, Shandong, and Sichuan. The weighted average trading terms calculated by trading volume and trading value were consistent with the above - mentioned trading preferences [63]. 2.3 Net Buying - Based on the data from 2021 - 2025, different institutional entities had different net - buying preferences for local government bonds of different terms. Large - scale banks mainly focused on local government bonds with a term of less than seven years, rural commercial banks had a more diverse range of term preferences, city commercial banks' net - buying characteristics were similar to those of rural commercial banks, securities firms' self - operation mainly concentrated on 1 - 5Y local government bonds, funds' net - buying terms were more dispersed, and insurance companies showed an increasing preference for long - term local government bonds and were the largest net - buying entities for 15 - 30Y local government bonds [68]. 2.4 Cross - Market Trading Comparison - After the optimization of the local government bond transfer - custody business, it became more convenient to transfer local government bonds between the inter - bank market and the exchange market. The inter - bank market had the largest trading volume of local government bonds, and the absolute values of the differences between the trading prices in the inter - bank and broker markets and the ChinaBond valuation were smaller. The Shanghai Stock Exchange had a larger trading volume than the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with higher trading yields [73][76].
【申万固收|地方债周报】下周地方债供给明显放量——地方债周度跟踪20260123
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2026-01-27 02:26
【申万固收】黄伟平 杨雪芳 正文 1. 本期地方债发行量上升,加权发行期限缩短 摘要 本期地方债发行与净融资皆环比上升,预计下期地方债发行和净融资将环比大幅上升。 本期(2026.1.19-2026.1.25)地方债合计发行/净融资2315.70亿 元/2031.60亿元(上期为748.41亿元/685.66亿元),下期(2026.1.26-2026.2.1)预计发行/净融资4392.75亿元/3108.54亿元。从加权发行期限来看,本 期地方债加权发行期限为15.88年,较上期(2026.1.12-2026.1.18)的19.45年有所缩短。从发行情绪来看,本期10/30年地方债较同期限国债的发行利 差分别环比下降至14.64/12.78BP(上期为14.70/19.80BP),全场倍数环比皆有所提升(本期分别为20倍和17倍,上期为27倍和23倍)。 今年新增一般债发行进度慢于往年同期,但新增专项债发行在1月下旬开始明显提速。 截至2026年1月23日,新增一般债/新增专项债累计发行占全年额 度的比例分别为2.7%和4.0%,考虑下期预计发行为7.6%和8.4%。2025年累计发行进度分别为12.6%/4 ...
【申万固收|地方债周报】地方债发行或在1月下旬提速——地方债周度跟踪20260116
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2026-01-20 02:49
Core Viewpoint - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous period, but an increase is expected in the upcoming period. The total issuance/net financing for the period from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 748.41 billion yuan/685.66 billion yuan, down from 1,176.64 billion yuan/1,146.68 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance/net financing for the upcoming period (January 19 to January 25, 2026) is 2,315.70 billion yuan/2,031.60 billion yuan [3]. Local Bond Issuance - The weighted average issuance period for local bonds is 19.45 years, shortened from 21.36 years in the previous period [4]. - The issuance rates for 10-year and 30-year local bonds have decreased to 14.70 BP and 19.80 BP, respectively, compared to the previous period [5]. - The overall subscription multiples for the bonds have increased, with the 10-year and 30-year bonds seeing multiples of 27 and 23, respectively, up from 18 and 17 in the previous period [3][5]. Special Bonds and Financing - The progress of newly issued special bonds is faster than in previous years, with the cumulative issuance of general bonds and special bonds as of January 16, 2026, being 0.1% and 2.5% of the annual quota, respectively [3][7]. - The total planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21,179 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][17]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement and repayment of existing debts was 389 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 645 billion yuan for debt replacement as of January 16, 2026 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads at 21.76 BP and 17.64 BP, respectively [23]. - The weekly turnover rate for local bonds has slightly decreased to 0.64% from 0.65% in the previous period [28]. - Current 10-year and 15-year local bonds are considered to have a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread adjustments indicating potential for favorable investment conditions [3][23].
【申万固收|地方债周报】Q1已披露计划发行21076亿元,与去年相当但1月体量大——地方债周度跟踪20260109
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2026-01-14 02:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in local government bond issuance, highlighting an increase in issuance volume and a lengthening of the weighted average maturity of bonds, while forecasting a decrease in issuance and net financing in the upcoming period [4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds for the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026, reached 1176.64 billion yuan and 1146.68 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 260.00 billion yuan and 174.49 billion yuan in the previous period [4]. - The weighted average maturity of local government bonds increased to 21.36 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 5.26 years [4]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21076 billion yuan, which is comparable to the same period in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Refinancing - A total of 33 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, along with 256 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and 36 billion yuan for repaying existing debts [4]. - The issuance progress for special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts reached 1.3% as of January 9, 2026 [4]. Group 3: Bond Yield and Liquidity - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10-year bonds to 23.18 basis points, while it widened for 30-year bonds to 17.76 basis points [4]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds increased to 0.65%, up from 0.24% in the previous period [4]. Group 4: Regional Bond Performance - Regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao exhibited better yield and liquidity for 7-10 year local government bonds compared to the national average [4]. - The current value of 10-year local government bonds is seen as having a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 basis points at the upper end and 5-10 basis points at the lower end [4].
地方债周度跟踪:Q1已披露计划发行21076亿元,与去年相当但1月体量大-20260111
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-01-11 14:42
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current issuance and net financing of local government bonds have increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened this period. The issuance progress of new special bonds at the beginning of this year is faster than in previous years. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to the same period in 2025, with a larger planned issuance scale in January and March [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds. The weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period. Currently, 10 - year and 15 - year local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (January 5 - 11, 2026) is 117.664 billion yuan/114.668 billion yuan (the previous period was 26 billion yuan/17.449 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 70.201 billion yuan/63.925 billion yuan in the next period (January 12 - 18, 2026). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period is 21.36 years, significantly longer than 5.26 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 0.1% and 2.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 0.1% and 2.5%. The cumulative issuance progress was 0.0%/0.0% and 2.8%/0.8% in 2025, and 0.0%/0.0% and 0.0%/0.0% in 2024 [2][18]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 210.76 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of January 9, 2026, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 210.76 billion yuan. The issuance in Q1 26 may be similar to Q1 25, with the front - loaded issuance of refinancing bonds boosting the issuance volume. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The issuance terms of local government bonds in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Beijing in Q1 show a shortening trend, but the term of bonds issued in the first week of this year is still relatively long [2][24]. - This period, 3.3 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 25.6 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively [2][21]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period - As of January 9, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 23.18BP and 17.76BP respectively. Compared with December 31, 2025, they have narrowed by 0.09BP and widened by 2.50BP respectively, and are at the 73.70% and 65.50% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period is 0.65%, an increase compared to 0.24% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][43]. - Currently, 10/15Y local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].
地方债周度跟踪:明年发行或继续前置,Q1已披露计划发行16809亿元-20251228
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-28 13:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis this period, and are expected to increase next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) was 20.37 billion yuan/-31.74 billion yuan, compared with 400.37 billion yuan/281.57 billion yuan in the previous period. Next period (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), it is expected to be 260.00 billion yuan/174.49 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 - billion - yuan carry - over quota. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 96.2% and 103.8% considering the next - period issuance [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is 168.09 billion yuan. As of December 26, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale. The issuance in 26Q1 may be similar to that in 25Q1, with refinancing bonds issued earlier. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger [2]. - There was no issuance of special new special bonds this period, nor of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 136.68 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 200 billion yuan, with the issuance progress at 100%; and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 28.75 billion yuan [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and 30Y this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a week - on - week basis. As of December 26, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 20.24BP and 15.67BP respectively, narrowing by 2.68BP and 5.81BP compared with December 19, 2025 [2]. - Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of current 3/10/15Y local government bonds. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be 20 - 25BP above the issuance spread floor, and the bottom may be near the issuance spread floor [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Declined and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - The issuance of local government bonds in this period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) was 20.37 billion yuan, compared with 400.37 billion yuan in the previous period. Next period (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the forecasted issuance is 260.00 billion yuan [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 15.14 years, shorter than 16.15 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 96.2% and 103.8% considering the next - period issuance [2][18]. - There was no issuance of special new special bonds this period, nor of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 136.68 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 200 billion yuan, with the issuance progress at 100%; and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 28.75 billion yuan [2][20]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is 168.09 billion yuan. As of December 26, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale. The issuance in 26Q1 may be similar to that in 25Q1, with refinancing bonds issued earlier. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 69.25 billion yuan, 24.22 billion yuan, and 74.62 billion yuan respectively [2][24]. - The issuance terms of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Zhejiang, where term data are disclosed, show signs of shortening compared with the same period last year [2][31]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Narrowed for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Week - on - Week Basis - As of December 26, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 20.24BP and 15.67BP respectively, narrowing by 2.68BP and 5.81BP compared with December 19, 2025 [2][37]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.66%, down from 0.77% in the previous period [2][47]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Jilin this period are better than the national average [2].
【申万固收|地方债周报】7Y以上地方债减国债利差收窄,下周发行明显提速——地方债周度跟踪20251107
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-11-14 02:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrowing of the yield spread between local government bonds with maturities over 7 years and national government bonds, indicating a shift in the bond market dynamics and a potential increase in local bond issuance in the coming week [2] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield spread between local government bonds with maturities over 7 years and national government bonds has decreased, suggesting a change in investor sentiment and market conditions [2] - The upcoming week is expected to see a significant acceleration in local government bond issuance, which may impact overall market liquidity and investor strategies [2] Group 2: Local Government Bond Issuance - The article highlights that local government bonds are likely to be issued at a faster pace, reflecting the need for funding in various local projects and initiatives [2] - This increase in issuance may lead to a more competitive environment for investors, as they assess the risk and return profiles of these bonds compared to national government bonds [2]
流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题:地方债还有什么机会
Minsheng Securities· 2025-11-11 03:10
Group 1 - The report indicates that the central bank's net investment in government bonds in October 2025 was 20 billion yuan, which is lower than the monthly net purchases in 2024, which ranged from 100 billion to 300 billion yuan [1][8] - Since June 2025, major banks have significantly increased their net purchases of government bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, with monthly net purchases exceeding 230 billion yuan [1][8] - The liquidity outlook remains relatively loose, with a weekly net payment of 369.2 billion yuan in government bonds, the highest in two months, despite low maturity amounts and the absence of tax periods [2][9] Group 2 - The sentiment in the secondary market for local government bonds has been positive since late October, with insurance and fund institutions being the main net buyers, particularly in the 15-20 year and 3-5 year maturities [2][18] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is currently less than one-fifth of the planned 500 billion yuan, with a focus on maturities that may widen the spread between local government bonds and national bonds [3][18] - The report highlights that the newly issued bonds in November have an implied tax rate of 3% or below, with many bonds deviating significantly from secondary market pricing [3][18]
地方债周报:地方债利差仍有收窄空间-20251104
CMS· 2025-11-04 10:05
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report suggests that there is still room for the narrowing of local government bond spreads. It analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, capital investment directions, and trading volumes [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bond issuance reached 270.7 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 12.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 178 billion yuan, including 17 billion yuan in new general bonds, 154.9 billion yuan in new special bonds, 77.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 21.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The issuance proportion of 10 - year local government bonds was the highest at 24%, and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 63%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportion of 5 - year local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 9 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, 24.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2.0536 trillion yuan in special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Henan having 251.1 billion yuan, 132.4 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 116.1 billion yuan respectively [2][17]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 17.5bp, lower than last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 22.8bp. Except for 5 - year and 30 - year bonds, the weighted average issuance spreads of other terms narrowed. Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Shandong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [2][25]. - **Fund - Raising Investment Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds raised since 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (16%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (11%). In 2025, the proportion of land reserve investment increased by 16.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.0% [2][29]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 33 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance in October, the total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is about 1.3 trillion yuan, with 705 billion yuan in November. Next week, 91.6 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment of 127.6 billion yuan and a net repayment of 36 billion yuan, a decrease of 213.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3][32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spreads of all terms widened. The secondary spreads of 3 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year bonds reached 19.6bp, 18.7bp, and 18.5bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region were relatively high, ranging from 18 - 21bp, and the 15 - 20 - year bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads [5][36]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. Hebei and Guizhou had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 385.3 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.72%. Hebei had a large trading volume of 42.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rates of Hebei and Guizhou were the highest, reaching 1.8% and 1.7% respectively [5][41].