2025 年 11 月 23 日 減国债利差皆收窄,下周发 開東 -地方债周度跟踪 20251121 減国债利美表 愤反行提读 地方债周度跟踪 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄 下吉发行明显提速 -邯方债洁度 限层 20251107 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速 关注中长端地方 地方债周度跟踪 债性价比 20251031 》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速 偿还存量债务 珠再融资债再发行 地方信信 2025/10/26 度跟踪 20251024》 《5000 亿元结存限额下达,四季度 地方债发行或继续放量 -地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共15页 本期地方债发行与净融资发行环比皆大 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明显 提速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251121 相关研究 《新增债发行提速，减国债利差表 现分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251114》 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 ...

2025 年 11 月 16 日 新增债发行提速，减国债利差表现 分化 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251114 相关研究 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《发行持续放缓，减国债利差表现 分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251010 》 2025/10/12 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 债券周评 目录 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a sequential basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a sequential basis next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds lengthened. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a sequential basis. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Current Situation of Local Government Bond Issuance - This period (from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 9.1607 billion yuan/-3.3641 billion yuan (compared to 27.0682 billion yuan/17.5677 billion yuan in the previous period). It is expected that the issuance/net financing next period (from November 10, 2025, to November 16, 2025) will be 28.5067 billion yuan/24.2792 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][6]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][15]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan (70.16 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan in November and December respectively), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan and 0.36 billion yuan in November and December respectively). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 189.76 billion yuan and 7.18 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 240.54 billion yuan and 10.68 billion yuan [2]. - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 100 million yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 0 yuan and 570 million yuan respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan (100 million yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan (0 yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance (no new regions this period); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 - billion - yuan unused quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 5.07 billion yuan (570 million yuan issued this period) [2]. 3.2 Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025 (23.46BP and 23.69BP on October 31, 2025), and were at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a sequential basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao were better than the national average this period [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a week-on-week basis next period. The current weighted issuance term of local government bonds has lengthened compared to the previous period [2]. - The current issuance progress of new local government bonds is relatively slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan, including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. - The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds this period (November 3 - November 9, 2025) was 91.607 billion yuan (compared to 270.682 billion yuan in the previous period), and the net financing was -33.641 billion yuan. The expected issuance and net financing next period (November 10 - November 16, 2025) are 285.067 billion yuan and 242.792 billion yuan respectively [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, which was longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 it was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][13][16]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 71.33 billion yuan for local government bonds from November to December 2025 (70.16 billion yuan in November and 1.17 billion yuan in December), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan in November and 0.36 billion yuan in December) [2][24]. - This period, 1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 billion yuan and 5.7 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 5.07 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025. They are at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a week-on-week basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][37]. - Taking the 10Y local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This period's local bond issuance and net financing have both increased significantly compared to the previous period, and the next period is expected to see a slight sequential increase. The weighted issuance term has also lengthened. Currently, the issuance progress of new bonds is slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. The planned issuance scale of local bonds from October to November 2025 is large, and the special new special - purpose bonds and special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts have been issued. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds have widened, and the weekly turnover rate has increased. The cost - effectiveness of exploring the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has improved [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. This period's local bond issuance volume has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - This period (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.26) local bonds were issued a total of 2472.28 billion yuan (323.01 billion yuan in the previous period), and the next period (2025.10.27 - 2025.11.2) is expected to issue 2706.82 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period is 16.32 years, longer than 16.21 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of October 24, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special - purpose bonds accounted for 84.1% and 86.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 86.2% and 89.5%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 87.6%/94.6% and 88.4%/97.0%, and in 2023 it was 90.1%/89.0% and 91.2%/92.5% [2][18]. - As of October 24, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of local bonds of 1271.6 billion yuan from October to November 2025 (546 billion yuan in October and 725.6 billion yuan in November), including 742 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds (361.1 billion yuan in October and 380.9 billion yuan in November) [2][24]. - This period, 32 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds were issued, 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, and 21.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts. As of October 24, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special - purpose bonds was 1238 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1992.4 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.6%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed issuance. Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 21.4 billion yuan [2]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds have widened, and the weekly turnover rate has increased sequentially - As of October 24, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 21.14BP and 19.74BP respectively, widening by 0.60BP and 1.76BP compared to October 17, 2025, and were at the 61.00% and 77.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - This period's local bond weekly turnover rate was 0.63%, a sequential increase from 0.56% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Tianjin, and Ningxia were better than the national average [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased both in the current period and are expected to decline in the next period. The current issuance and net financing are 825.28 billion yuan and 386.37 billion yuan respectively, and the next period's expected issuance and net financing are 323.01 billion yuan and -197.81 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The issuance progress of new local government bonds has slowed down, and the cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.0% of the annual quota respectively [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 892.1 billion yuan, including 500.9 billion yuan of new special bonds [3]. - The yield spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y local government bonds narrowed. The weekly turnover rate decreased compared to the previous period [3]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploring the yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has increased, and 10Y local government bonds are more cost - effective [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased in the current period, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The current issuance of local government bonds totaled 825.28 billion yuan (compared to 1960.51 billion yuan in the previous period), and the next - period forecast issuance is 323.01 billion yuan [3][10]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 12.93 years, significantly shorter than the 19.81 years in the previous period [3][12]. - As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the next - period forecast issuance, they are 83.9% and 83.4% respectively [3][13][17]. - As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds is 1202.9 billion yuan (1.7 billion yuan was issued in the current period), and the cumulative issuance of replacement hidden - debt special refinancing bonds is 1986.2 billion yuan (0 billion yuan was issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 99.3% [3]. 2. The yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period widened for 10Y and narrowed for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of October 10, 2025, the yield spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 25.40BP and 15.71BP respectively, widening by 3.08BP and narrowing by 2.59BP compared to September 26, 2025 [3][27][32]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.35%, a decrease compared to 0.89% in the previous period [3][40]. - The yield and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Jilin, Tianjin, and Sichuan are better than the national average [3].

2025 年 09 月 28 日 10Y 和 30Y 减国债利差走阔，下周 发行再放缓 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250926 相关研究 《发行回落，新增地方债累计发行进 度约 80%——地方债周度跟踪 20250919》 2025/09/21 《新增地方债发行提速，26 年提前 批额度下达——地方债周度跟踪 20250912》 2025/09/14 《26 年地方债务额度提前下发，化 债持续推进——申万宏源建筑周报 （20250908-20250912）》 2025/09/14 《发行明显回落，但下周再提速— —地方债周度跟踪 20250905》 2025/09/08 《发行保持高位，但下周发行较少— —地方债周度跟踪 20250829》 2025/08/31 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 ...

——地方债周度跟踪 20250919 2025 年 09 月 21 日 发行回落，新增地方债累计发行进 度约 80% 债 券 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 《新增地方债发行提速，26 年提前 批额度下达——地方债周度跟踪 20250912》 2025/09/14 《发行明显回落，但下周再提速— —地方债周度跟踪 20250905》 2025/09/08 《发行保持高位，但下周发行较少— —地方债周度跟踪 20250829》 2025/08/31 《新增地方债发行提速，30Y 减国债 利差大幅走阔 ——地方债周度跟 踪 20250822》 2025/08/24 《发行继续降速，10Y 地方债减国债 利差走阔 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250815》 2025/08/17 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the next period. The current period (August 18 - August 24, 2025) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 369.15 billion/RMB 208.80 billion (previous period: RMB 91.432 billion/RMB -13.736 billion), and the next period (August 25 - August 31, 2025) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of RMB 351.597 billion/RMB 243.653 billion [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds started to accelerate in the current period. As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 73.1% and 69.3% of the annual quota respectively, higher than the same period in 2024 but comparable to 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from August to September 2025 totals RMB 1.7503 trillion, including RMB 1.063 trillion of new special bonds [2]. - The current period saw the issuance of RMB 9.75 billion of special new special bonds, RMB 2.12 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, and RMB 0.33 billion of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts [2]. - The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, while the spread between 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened significantly in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased compared to the previous period. As of August 22, 2025, the spreads were 18.82BP and 21.25BP respectively, narrowing by 0.53BP and widening by 10.00BP compared to August 15, 2025 [2]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploiting the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high at present [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (August 18 - August 24, 2025) was RMB 369.15 billion, compared to RMB 91.432 billion in the previous period. The next period (August 25 - August 31, 2025) is expected to issue RMB 351.597 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 17.35 years, longer than 12.42 years in the previous period (August 11 - August 17, 2025) [2][10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 73.1% and 69.3% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 77.6% and 73.6%. In 2024, the cumulative issuance progress was 61.1%/52.1% and 67.7%/60.6%, and in 2023, it was 73.7%/69.0% and 80.7%/75.1% [2][18]. - As of August 22, 2025, 30 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of local government bonds of RMB 1.7503 trillion from August to September 2025 (RMB 1.0238 trillion in August and RMB 0.7265 trillion in September), including RMB 1.063 trillion of new special bonds [2][22]. - In the current period, RMB 9.75 billion of special new special bonds were issued, and the cumulative issuance reached RMB 90.52 billion. RMB 2.12 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued, with a cumulative issuance of RMB 190.42 billion and a progress of 95.2%. RMB 0.33 billion of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued in Guizhou [2]. 3.2 This period's 30Y local government bond - treasury bond spread widened significantly, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of August 22, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 18.82BP and 21.25BP respectively, narrowing by 0.53BP and widening by 10.00BP compared to August 15, 2025, and were at the 49.40% and 83.60% historical quantiles since 2023 [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.62%, a decrease from 0.65% in the previous period [2]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qingdao, Sichuan, and Qinghai are better than the national average [2]. - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].