Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a rebound due to effective policy measures, although export pressures remain [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of growth [2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [2]. - New export orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points, continuing its upward trend for two months [2]. - Special bond issuance reached approximately 21,607 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 44.7% increase compared to 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]. Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year, particularly through special bonds and local government financing to support economic growth and counteract tariff impacts [3][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is anticipated to be a critical point for policy adjustments [3][5]. Inflation and Economic Growth - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has recorded negative growth for 32 consecutive months since October 2022 [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in May, with four consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is projected to be around 5.2%, with a target of 5% for the full year [4]. Future Outlook - Economic downward pressure persists, influenced by tariff fluctuations and weak domestic demand [5]. - The government may introduce additional policies to support key sectors and stabilize the economy, including potential monetary easing if external conditions worsen [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of social financing in May is primarily driven by government bond issuance, as highlighted by the People's Bank of China's recent data release [1] Group 1: Social Financing Growth - The scale of social financing in May maintained a rapid growth rate [1] - Government bonds are identified as the main factor contributing to this growth [1] Group 2: Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated this year, with net financing exceeding 3.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - A significant portion of the bond issuance is aimed at replacing hidden debts through special refinancing bonds [1] - In the second quarter, the issuance of special government bonds has further accelerated, alongside the ongoing issuance of special refinancing bonds [1] Group 3: Local Government Bonds - There is a noticeable increase in the issuance of new special bonds by local governments, with May's issuance reaching 443.2 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high for the year [1]