北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）2月13日，人民银行发布2026年1月金融统计数据报告。初步统计，2026年1月 末社会融资规模存量为449.11万亿元，同比增长8.2%。 从结构看，1月末对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额占同期社会融资规模存量的60.9%，同比低1.2个百 分点；对实体经济发放的外币贷款折合人民币余额占比0.2%，同比低0.1个百分点；委托贷款余额占比 2.5%，同比低0.2个百分点；信托贷款余额占比1%，同比低0.1个百分点；未贴现的银行承兑汇票余额占 比0.6%，同比持平；企业债券余额占比7.7%，同比低0.2个百分点；政府债券余额占比21.4%，同比高 1.7个百分点；非金融企业境内股票余额占比2.7%，同比低0.1个百分点。 其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为273.3万亿元，同比增长6.1%；对实体经济发放的外币贷款 折合人民币余额为1.09万亿元，同比下降12.1%；委托贷款余额为11.3万亿元，同比增长0.2%；信托贷 款余额为4.67万亿元，同比增长7%；未贴现的银行承兑汇票余额为2.78万亿元，同比增长6.7%；企业债 券余额为34.69万亿元，同比增长6.1%；政府债券余额为9 ...

财政部数据显示，2025年全国一般公共预算支出约28.74万亿元，同比增长1%。全国政府性基金支出约11.29万亿元，同比增长 11.3%。 2026年地方预计财政收入小幅增长。 为了稳经济，中国首次在2025年实施更加积极财政政策，广义财政支出规模首次突破40万亿元。 根据财政部数据，2025年广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）支出约为40.03万亿元，同比增长3.7%；广义财 政收入约为27.38万亿元，同比下降约2.9%；广义财政支出超过收入约12.65万亿元，同比增长21.3%。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，去年面对收入端多重压力，财政政策通过提高赤字率与扩大债务规模，实施超常 规逆周期调节，保持必要支出强度，有力发挥了宏观政策的支撑作用，推动全年经济平稳运行。 去年底全国财政工作会议提出，今年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，包括扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度等，以推动今 年经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 罗志恒认为，2026年财政政策预计在现有基础上进一步加力提效，通过提升赤字规模、优化支出结构、创新政策工具等，以更 强的政策力度推动经济稳中向好并切实改善民生。 财政 ...

记者丨 周潇枭 编辑丨张星 1月30日，财政部对外发布2025年财政收支数据。 2025年，全国一般公共预算收入实现21.6万亿元，比上年下降1.7%。其中，税收收入约17.6万 亿元，增长0.8%；非税收入3.97万亿元，下降11.3%。 尽管财政收入小幅下降，但是财政支出仍在持续扩张，重点支出得到有效保障。2025年全国一 般公共预算支出28.7万亿元，比上年增长1%。 财政部副部长廖岷表示，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体 支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。把更多的财政资金用在提振消费、"投资于 人"、民生保障等方面，多渠道增加居民收入。 （财政部召开2 0 2 5年度财政收支情况新闻发布会现场图，图片来源：财政部） 申报收入位居全国前1 0%的个人 缴纳个税占比九成以上 2025年全国一般公共预算收入较上年下降1.7%，主要在于2024年一次性安排中央单位上缴专 项收益抬高基数，税收收入保持小幅正增长。 具体来看，主体税种保持正增长。2025年国内增值税实现6.89万亿元，增长3.4%；国内消费 税1.69万亿元，增长2%；企业所得税4.13万亿元，增长1 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 21.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1% [1] - The overall fiscal revenue in China remained stable, with tax revenue steadily rebounding and key areas of expenditure being well-supported [1][2] - Tax revenue grew by 0.8% in 2025, reflecting a steady upward trend in the economy, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% due to a high base from 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Major tax categories such as value-added tax, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and individual income tax grew by 3.4%, 2%, 1%, and 11.5% respectively, accounting for about 81% of total tax revenue [2] - The growth in consumption tax was primarily driven by increases in cigarette and refined oil taxes, while corporate income tax growth was supported by the manufacturing sector [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty reached 203.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57.8%, indicating a strong correlation with market activity [2][3] Group 3 - National general public budget expenditure increased by 1%, with social security and employment, technology, education, and health spending rising by 6.7%, 4.8%, 3.2%, and 5.7% respectively, together accounting for about 42% of total expenditure [3] - Fiscal funds showed a clear trend of investing in human capital, with over 30 million infants receiving childcare subsidies [3] - In 2025, the total expenditure on special bonds and other financial instruments reached 6.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.69 trillion yuan or 37.6%, enhancing economic development momentum [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on increasing total expenditure, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum [1][4]. Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and total expenditure will maintain necessary levels in 2026, ensuring that overall expenditure increases and key areas are strongly supported [1][3]. - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with new government debt reaching 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [3][4]. Strategic Focus Areas - The fiscal policy will play a crucial role in boosting consumption and expanding effective investment [4]. - The 2025 National Fiscal Work Conference emphasized the need to expand the fiscal expenditure pool and ensure necessary expenditure while optimizing the expenditure structure and enhancing support for key areas [4]. Investment Direction - The fiscal expenditure structure will continue to be optimized, with a focus on supporting major national strategies and directing more resources towards people's livelihoods and key sectors [5]. - Government bond funds will prioritize improving people's livelihoods, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing future growth, particularly in areas such as urban renewal and manufacturing upgrades [5]. Expected Fiscal Metrics - The expected fiscal deficit for the current year is approximately 5.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 200 billion yuan from the previous year, primarily borne by the central government [5]. - The issuance of special long-term government bonds is projected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 200 billion yuan from the previous year, to support key projects [5].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of 2025, the total social financing scale is projected to reach 442.12 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [1] Summary by Category Loans to the Real Economy - The balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy is expected to be 268.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - The balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy, converted to RMB, is anticipated to be 10.5 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 18% [1] Other Financing Instruments - The balance of entrusted loans is projected to be 11.35 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1] - The balance of trust loans is expected to reach 4.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [1] - The balance of undiscussed bank acceptance bills is anticipated to be 2.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1] Corporate Bonds and Stocks - The balance of corporate bonds is projected to be 34.24 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [1] - The balance of government bonds is expected to reach 94.92 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [1] - The balance of domestic stocks held by non-financial enterprises is anticipated to be 12.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's broad fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first 11 months of the year, highlighting a slight decline in revenue and an increase in expenditure, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth and expanding domestic demand [3][5]. Fiscal Revenue - In the first 11 months, broad fiscal revenue reached 24,079 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 0.2% [3]. - The national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, slightly better than the initial forecast of 0.1%, driven by stable economic performance and active capital markets [5]. - Government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, falling short of the initial forecast of 0.7%, primarily due to a sluggish real estate market and lower land transfer income [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Broad fiscal expenditure amounted to 34,066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.5%, which is lower than the expected growth rate of 9.3% for the year [6]. - The government allowed local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in bonds in the fourth quarter to support local financial capacity and major project construction [6][7]. - The fiscal expenditure structure has been optimized, with increased focus on social welfare and public services, such as social security and education, which grew faster than average expenditure growth [9]. Government Debt - Net financing of government bonds reached 1.315 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, an increase of 361 billion yuan year-on-year [8]. - Experts anticipate that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 will be set around 4%, with total government debt expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the optimization of fiscal expenditure structure in China, with a focus on investing in people and ensuring the well-being of the population [1][8] - In the first 11 months of this year, the broad fiscal revenue reached 24,079 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 0.2%, while broad fiscal expenditure was 34,066 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 4.5% [1][4] - The broad fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by 99,872 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of approximately 17.9%, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand [1][6] Group 2 - The broad fiscal revenue is close to the initial official expectations for the year, with a projected growth of about 0.2% for 2025, aligning with the current year-to-date performance [4] - The general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year in the first 11 months, slightly better than the initial forecast of 0.1%, driven by stable economic performance and increased tax revenues from a vibrant capital market [4] - However, government fund revenue remains below initial expectations, primarily due to a sluggish real estate market and lower-than-expected land transfer income, which decreased by 10.7% year-on-year [5] Group 3 - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure is lower than the initial official forecast, with an actual increase of 4.5% compared to an expected 9.3% for 2025, largely due to underperformance in land transfer income [6] - To maintain fiscal expenditure levels, the central government has allowed local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in bonds in the fourth quarter to support local financial capacity and major project construction [6] - The total investment from new policy financial tools has reached approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, artificial intelligence, and urban infrastructure projects [6][8] Group 4 - The net financing of government bonds reached 1.315 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, an increase of 361 billion yuan year-on-year [7] - The central economic work conference has called for continued implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy next year, with expectations for the fiscal deficit rate to be set around 4% for 2026 [9] - The anticipated increase in government debt issuance, including long-term special bonds and local government bonds, is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan in 2025, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [9]

接下来，政府债券需统筹兼顾供给与需求、消费与投资，进一步优化投向、提升效率，将重点更加 聚焦投资于人，为投资于物锚定新方向，持续优化债券的额度、投向及运作模式。 一方面，在现有政策框架基础上扩大民生领域专项债、国债等资金的额度，并加强项目谋划与储 备，确保资金有效落地。维持较高的政府债券规模以增强财力，腾出更多资金用于解决群众急难愁盼的 民生项目和人力资本领域。此外，延续特别国债支持以旧换新政策，促进消费与投资的良性循环，并加 快布局数字、绿色、智能等新型消费领域的政府债券项目。可利用政府债券资金作为项目资本金、"债 券资金+社会资本"等杠杆撬动或引导模式，吸引社会资本参与民生、消费领域的项目投资运营。 另一方面，应积极拓展政府债券使用范围、创新政府债券品种，允许部分政府债券投向符合条件的 民生或人力资本。例如，可借鉴国外经验设立人力资本债券、社会债券、可持续发展债券等新品种，专 门用于育儿、教育、医疗、养老等特定领域。继续强化财政与金融的协同，如通过政府债券补充银行资 本金、设立产业引导基金、"政府债券+市场化融资"等方式，支持相关领域发展。在此过程中，需充分 调动各方主体的积极性，既要关注人的能力提升和潜 ...

Financial Data Overview - In November, China's new social financing (社融) reached 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 2.02 trillion yuan[2] - New RMB loans amounted to 390 billion yuan, lower than the expected 504.3 billion yuan[2] - M2 growth year-on-year was 8.0%, slightly below the expected 8.2%[2] Economic Insights - The financial data indicates stabilization in total volume with structural differentiation, as social financing growth remained steady at 8.5% month-on-month[5] - Corporate loans showed marginal improvement, with non-standard and direct financing rebounding significantly, suggesting a potential bottoming out of manufacturing investment sentiment[5] - Government deposits decreased significantly year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in government spending, which is crucial for supporting the economy[5] Credit and Loan Analysis - Credit data remains weak, with five consecutive months of year-on-year declines, particularly in household loans, which decreased by 476.3 billion yuan[5][14] - New corporate loans increased by 610 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans rising by 1 trillion yuan, indicating improved corporate financing demand[12] - Household loans showed a negative growth of 206.3 billion yuan, reflecting low consumer and housing demand[14] Financing Structure - Government bond financing increased by 1.2 trillion yuan, becoming the main source of social financing growth for the month[16] - Direct corporate financing reached 451.1 billion yuan, up 170.2 billion yuan year-on-year, with credit bonds contributing significantly[18] - The overall financing structure indicates a shift towards non-standard and direct financing, which has been more resilient compared to traditional bank loans[5][18] Monetary Indicators - Total deposits increased by 1.41 trillion yuan, but this was a decrease of 760 billion yuan year-on-year, with M2 growth continuing to decline[22] - M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, reflecting limited changes in actual monetary circulation[22] - The widening gap between M2 and M1 growth rates indicates a potential liquidity issue in the economy[22]