来源：华泰睿思 回顾2025年以来的财政政策运行，一个突出特征是广义财政的明显扩张并没有推动固定资产投资增速的明显改善，1-10月份投资累计增速下滑1.7%，我们 认为主因在于大量财政资源用于化债、清偿企业拖欠和土储等暂时不产生或滞后产生实物工作量的存量问题上。展望2026年，"十五五"开局之年与"化债 攻坚期"的关键一年双期叠加，我们预计，实施更加积极有为的财政政策，仍然是化解存量、优化增量的题中之义。2026年财政赤字率有望维持在4%左 右，为配合化债等政策推进，新增专项债额度或进一步扩容至5万亿左右，特别国债或仍维持1.8万亿左右的水平。年底的中央经济工作会议是观察当前政 策储备、展望明年政策部署的观察窗口，预计明年会尽量靠前形成实物工作量。 核心观点 2025年财政政策回顾：稳增长与防风险的平衡 预算内收入端弱修复、支出端调结构，预算执行情况基本符合预期。政府性基金收入受土地出让收入下行形成拖累，支出端强劲增长。前10个月政府性基 金收入进度55%，主因国有土地出让收入下滑压力较大。支出端看，受益于今年专项债和特别国债的大量发行，政府性基金支出增速高企。从专项债发行 情况看，总量的扩张和结构的调整是主 ...

《每日经济新闻》记者在现场注意到，有记者提问，今年是否考虑上调赤字率红线，或者增发特别国债来弥补疫情冲击所带来的收支缺口？ 每经记者｜周程程 每经编辑｜陈星 3月5日，国务院联防联控机制就有效应对新冠肺炎疫情影响加强地方财政"三保"工作有关情况举行发布会。 许宏才指出，另外一方面，聚焦受疫情影响的行业和领域，继续研究出台阶段性有针对性的措施，优化支出结构，加大对地方转移支付的力度，把疫情的影 响降到最低。 许宏才表示，研究阶段性的措施和政策，还要研究出台符合供给侧结构性改革方向的长期举措，推动经济高质量发展。通过系统谋划，落实落细积极的财政 政策，做到防控疫情和推动经济社会发展两手抓，确保完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，确保全面建成小康社会和"十三五"规划圆满收官。 许宏才强调，财政收入与经济运行密切相关，我国经济发展潜力大、韧性强，长期向好的趋势没有变，结构调整的空间和回旋的余地都比较大。随着疫情形 势的好转，经济回暖向好，财政收支的矛盾也会得到缓解。 值得注意的是，许宏才指出，财政赤字的确定，需要综合考虑经济形势、宏观调控需要、财政收支状况等各种因素，同时也要经过全国人大审议等法定程 序。"我们将按照党中央 ...

11月13日，中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙学工在2025中国外贸信托财富论坛上表示，建议2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，以保持政策的连续性、稳定性，营造稳定的支 持性宏观政策环境。更加积极的财政政策加力增效，要加大中央政府支出力度，可以考虑将预算赤字率 提高到4.5%，继续增发特别国债，确保中央政府持续发力。（人民财讯） ...

人民财讯11月13日电，11月13日，中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙学工在2025中国外贸信托财富 论坛上表示，建议2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，以保持政策的连续性、 稳定性，营造稳定的支持性宏观政策环境。更加积极的财政政策加力增效，要加大中央政府支出力度， 可以考虑将预算赤字率提高到4.5%，继续增发特别国债，确保中央政府持续发力。 ...

Core Insights - National general public budget revenue for the first three quarters reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first eight months [1] - Tax revenue for the first three quarters was 132,664 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% to 31,212 billion yuan [2] - General public budget expenditure for the first three quarters was 208,064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with central government expenditure rising by 7.3% and local government expenditure increasing by 2.4% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Central government general public budget revenue was 70,837 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 93,039 billion yuan, up 1.8% [1] - Government fund budget revenue for the first three quarters was 30,717 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with central government fund revenue increasing by 0.7% and local government fund revenue decreasing by 0.6% [5] Expenditure Insights - Social security and employment expenditure, agricultural and forestry expenditure, and energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure saw significant growth, increasing by 10%, 9%, and 8.8% respectively [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to expedite the use of special bonds and other financial tools to support major project construction and address issues like debt defaults [5][6] Policy Considerations - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the 2026 new local government debt limit, focusing on major strategic projects and addressing hidden debt issues [6] - Market expectations for growth stabilization policies have increased, with a focus on fiscal priorities beyond infrastructure, including childcare subsidies and urban renewal [5]

Core Insights - The issuance of 690 billion yuan in special government bonds is aimed at promoting the "old-for-new" consumption policy, which is expected to stabilize consumer expectations and invigorate the market [1][3] - The total central funding for the year has reached 300 billion yuan, indicating a significant commitment to supporting consumer spending [3] Industry Impact - The "old-for-new" initiative is not just a temporary measure; it is designed to strengthen the entire consumption market by providing subsidies that encourage consumers to replace old products with new ones [3] - This policy is expected to benefit the entire supply chain, from upstream manufacturers of home appliances and automotive parts to downstream retailers and service providers, thereby revitalizing the industry [3] Regulatory Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has emphasized strict measures against fraudulent claims for subsidies, ensuring that product quality and pricing are monitored [3] - This regulatory oversight is crucial for maintaining the integrity of the policy and ensuring that only legitimate businesses that focus on quality and service will benefit, which aligns with long-term investment strategies [3] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on identifying reliable companies within the "old-for-new" consumption chain, as these are likely to be the most stable investment opportunities in the long run [3] - The current policy environment, characterized by substantial financial backing and regulatory support, is seen as a more reliable signal for investment compared to short-term market fluctuations [3]

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to January to July [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 2.0% year-on-year, down 1.2 percentage points from January to July [2] - Full-year infrastructure investment growth is expected to reach around 5.0%, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Government Policies and Financing - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for sustained macro policies and the acceleration of government bond issuance to improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - There will be a large-scale issuance of new special bonds for local governments for project construction in the second half of the year [3] - The issuance scale of special long-term bonds to support "two heavy" investments may be increased, providing sufficient funding for infrastructure investment [5] Group 3: Real Estate Investment - Real estate development investment from January to August decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared to January to July [4] - New commercial housing sales area was 57,304 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [4] - The expected year-on-year decline in real estate investment is projected to be around -9.0%, narrowing by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Group 4: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment from January to August increased by 5.1% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first seven months [7] - The external economic environment and "anti-involution" policies may further impact domestic manufacturing investment, with a projected full-year growth rate of around 5.5%, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous year [7][8] - Manufacturing investment is expected to continue its downward trend in the second half of the year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a proactive fiscal policy to support high-quality economic development, with sufficient room for future fiscal policy adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, stated that the government's debt level is within a reasonable range, with a total debt of 92.6 trillion yuan and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7% as of the end of last year [1]. - The government plans to issue 5 trillion yuan in special bonds to inject capital into large commercial banks, which is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [2]. - Over the past two years, 1.5 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds have been allocated to promote "two重" construction [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Strength and Expenditure - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the fiscal deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 4%, with new local government special bond quotas totaling 19.4 trillion yuan and tax reductions exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4]. - The national fiscal strength has significantly increased during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with general public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, a 19% increase from the previous five-year period [6]. - Total public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [6]. Group 3: Social Welfare and Public Spending - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," nearly 100 trillion yuan has been allocated for social welfare, with significant investments in education (20.5 trillion yuan), social security (19.6 trillion yuan), healthcare (10.6 trillion yuan), and housing security (4 trillion yuan) [7]. - The government has also allocated 1 billion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 million yuan for gradually implementing free preschool education [7]. Group 4: Economic Contribution and Stability - Over the past four years, China's contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30%, with an average economic growth rate of 5.5% [8]. - The central government has arranged nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments during the "14th Five-Year Plan," ensuring stable local fiscal operations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a proactive fiscal policy to support high-quality economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with ample room for future fiscal policy adjustments [1][4]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance the continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight of fiscal policies, ensuring timely adjustments in response to changing economic conditions [1][2]. - A special bond issuance of 500 billion yuan is aimed at injecting capital into major commercial banks, which is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [2]. Fiscal Measures and Investments - Over the past two years, 1.5 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds have been allocated to promote "two重" construction, with a total of 19.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds arranged over five years to support 150,000 construction projects [3]. - The fiscal deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with over 10 trillion yuan in new tax reductions and refunds [3]. Fiscal Strength and Expenditure - The national fiscal strength has significantly improved, with general public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan (approximately 19%) compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [5]. - Total public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the previous five-year period [5]. Social Welfare and Public Spending - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," nearly 100 trillion yuan has been allocated for social welfare, including 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, and 10.6 trillion yuan for health care [6]. - The government has also allocated 1 trillion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 billion yuan for gradually implementing free preschool education [6]. Economic Contribution and Growth - Over the past four years, China's contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30%, with an average economic growth rate of 5.5% [7][8]. - The central government has arranged nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments during the "14th Five-Year Plan," ensuring stable local fiscal operations [9].

Core Insights - The Chinese Ministry of Finance is enhancing the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to create a synergistic effect [1] - A special bond issuance of 500 billion yuan is planned for this year, aimed at injecting capital into large commercial banks, which is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [1] Fiscal Policy - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special bonds is a strategic move to strengthen the financial system [1] - This initiative is part of a broader effort to ensure the successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Monetary Policy - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is intended to optimize the overall economic environment [1] - The expected credit expansion of 6 trillion yuan indicates a significant potential increase in liquidity within the banking sector [1]