新华财经上海2月14日电城投债市场近期迎来阶段性回暖。据新华财经城投债专题数据显示，1月全国城投债净融资规模实现回正。这 一信号改变了此前两年净偿还为主的态势，释放出地方债务化解与融资环境边际改善的积极信号。 据新华财经城投债专题数据显示，2026年1月共发行城投债666只，净融资规模由负转正，达394.97亿元。值得关注的是，城投债发行 利率已下行至2.23%，融资成本明显改善。此外，1月城投债发行总规模达4228.48亿元，在自去年8月连续下跌后，首次迎来反弹。 从配置角度来看，机构关注点集中于财政实力较强的高级别平台。其中，招商证券固收首席分析师张伟表示："当前短久期城投债收益 率已回升至2.2%以上，配置价值凸显，建议重点关注财政实力较强、债务管理较规范地区的优质主体。" 财通证券首席经济学家孙彬彬也表示，在信用利差压缩至历史低位的背景下，择券应更注重主体层级与区域重要性，优先选择省级或 国家级新区平台。 从区域分布看，优质省份继续领跑发行与净融资。浙江省以141.55亿元的城投净融资规模稳居首位，广东、江苏等地亦表现活跃。 | 序号 | 地域 | 城投债发行(亿) | 城投债到期(亿) | 城投债净 ...

转自：中国经营网 中经记者 杜丽娟 北京报道 自2023年中央部署一揽子化债方案以来，地方债务化解工作持续推进。2026年1月27日，2026年吉林省 政府工作报告明确提到"成功退出地方债务重点省份"，成为继内蒙古之后第二个实现"摘帽"的地区。 在市场看来，吉林、内蒙古退出地方债务重点省份，不仅彰显了一揽子化债政策的落地实效，也有望推 动其他债务重点省份的风险化解工作迈入新阶段。 随着化债举措的密集出台，中央构建起"中央赋能+地方主责"的系统性治理框架，通过债务置换、资产 盘活、平台转型等多重手段，明确了重点省份的退出标准与路径。比如，吉林省就通过中央政策赋能与 地方主动施策的双向发力，实现了债务风险指标的全面达标。 吉林省财政厅数据显示，2025年全省一般公共预算收入1350亿元，同比增长13.3%。其中，省级收入 300.7亿元，下降0.1%；市县级收入1049.3亿元，增长17.9%。 吉林省财政厅相关人员介绍，2025年，吉林省各级财政部门精准实施更加积极的财政政策，强化重点领 域支出保障，全力以赴化债化险，系统加强财政科学管理，一般公共预算收入达到历史最高水平，支出 保持高规模稳定增长，全年财政实现 ...

兰州市政府工作报告回顾"十四五"时期和2025年工作时指出，化债化险工作取得突破性进展。面对地方 债务和中小金融机构风险，坚持在发展中化债、在化债中发展，全力当家理财，稳慎处置风险。制定实 施"1+6"一揽子化债方案，开展债务化解"三大攻坚战"，"六端"发力推进"两防两降"，完成融资平台退 出14家，实现4个高债务率县区风险降级，基层"三保"底线有效兜牢，全市债务风险等级稳定"退红"。 精准拆弹中小金融机构风险，推动农信机构和村镇银行合并重组，不良资产清收处置超额完成任务。有 序清偿拖欠企业账款，单笔50万元及以下欠款全部清零。在两难甚至多难中实现了化债卸包袱、发展不 停步！ 21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道 1月20日，兰州市第十七届人民代表大会第六次会议正式开幕， 兰州市市长刘建勋作政府工作报告。 兰州市政府工作报告明确了2026年工作安排，明确指出要系统化解重点领域风险。继续落实一揽子化债 举措，规范用好置换债券资金，及时足额偿还各类到期政府债务，坚决不新增隐性债务，助力全省退出 高风险省份。健全常态化风险监测预警机制，严厉打击非法金融活动，稳妥推进中小金融机构兼并重组 和改革化险。加快清理拖欠企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies in China has evolved from simple quantitative coordination to a deeper integration at the mechanism level, effectively supporting the real economy and directing financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Collaboration - The establishment of a joint working group by the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China, along with multiple "re-lending + fiscal subsidy" policy combinations, has demonstrated a close collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [1]. - The combination of fiscal policy's leverage and guidance with the ample liquidity released by monetary policy has resulted in a synergistic effect, achieving more than the sum of its parts [1][2]. - The use of government financing guarantees has helped alleviate financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises and the agricultural sector, showcasing the effectiveness of fiscal policy tools [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2026, the focus of fiscal and monetary policy collaboration is expected to center on areas such as technological innovation and real estate inventory reduction, with regular operations in government bond trading anticipated [3]. - The monetary policy will provide a suitable financial environment for fiscal efforts, while new policy financial tools will leverage fiscal funds to attract more financial resources for key sectors [3][4]. - The integration of fiscal and monetary policies will continue to enhance the effectiveness of funding directed towards small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and consumer spending [4].

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is currently facing a critical period of adjustment, with old problems and new challenges intertwining, necessitating more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize and promote economic growth [2][3] - A survey indicates that 47% of economists predict GDP growth in Q4 2025 will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, while 65% expect 2026 growth to be in the range of 4.8% to 5.0% [3][2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization but remains in a deep adjustment phase, with 53% of economists forecasting a 5% to 15% decline in housing prices in first and second-tier cities in 2026 [9][10] - The focus for 2026 will be on optimizing supply-side policies, including enhancing the quality of housing and promoting urban renewal as a key strategy for stabilizing investment and expanding demand [10][9] Debt and Financial Risks - Local government debt remains a significant concern, exacerbated by declining land revenues due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, with experts emphasizing the need for effective management of local debts [4][5] - The survey highlights that 47% of economists believe stimulating market vitality is crucial for stabilizing growth, alongside improving the social security system and increasing investment in key sectors [15][2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be between -2.1% and -2.5% in Q4 2025, with a potential recovery to 1.6% to 2.0% in 2026 [7][8] - The most concentrated investment areas are technology (42%), large infrastructure (33%), and energy (16%) [8] Consumer Demand and Income - There is a pressing need to increase household income, with 36% of economists suggesting that enhancing residents' income is essential for expanding domestic demand [16][17] - The survey indicates that 33% of economists prioritize stabilizing employment as a key measure to increase household income [17] Global Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are identified as the primary disruptor for the global economy in 2026, with 48% of economists highlighting this concern [18] - The macroeconomic policy combination for 2026 is expected to focus on fiscal measures to expand demand and monetary policies to reduce costs [18][19]

Economic Outlook - China's economy is currently facing a critical period of adjustment, with old problems and new challenges intertwining, necessitating more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize and promote economic growth [1][7][8] - Economists predict that GDP growth for Q4 2025 will likely be between 4.7% and 4.9%, with a consensus for 2026 growth around 4.8% to 5.0% [2][7] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization but remains in a deep adjustment phase, with 79% of economists believing that the market will slow its decline in 2026 but has not yet bottomed out [2][17] - Economists suggest that the focus should not be on a trend reversal but rather on whether the rate of decline can be reduced [17] Investment Trends - Investment is seen as a key support for economic recovery, with 47% of economists forecasting a decline in fixed asset investment growth for Q4 2025, while 31% expect a modest increase in 2026 [17] - The primary sectors attracting investment include technology (42%), large infrastructure (33%), and energy (16%) [17] Debt and Financial Risks - Local government debt remains a significant concern, exacerbated by declining land revenues due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market [8][10] - Economists emphasize the need for macroeconomic management to address the debt risks faced by real estate companies, which are currently in a "non-normal" state due to cash flow issues and declining sales [10][11] Consumer Demand and Employment - There is a pressing need to stimulate consumer demand, with suggestions including increasing residents' income and improving the social security system [26][27] - Employment remains a critical issue, particularly for recent graduates, with the urban unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in 2025, indicating a stable but concerning job market [28] Policy Recommendations - Economists recommend a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate demand and reduce costs for businesses and residents [30] - Long-term strategies should focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden and reforming the fiscal system to ensure sustainable economic growth [11][30]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the debt resolution efforts in Shaanxi Province, highlighting the effectiveness of various measures implemented to mitigate debt risks [2][4]. Core Insights - Shaanxi Province has adopted a comprehensive debt resolution plan, which includes establishing regional stability development funds, coordinating financial institution support, and optimizing debt structures. These measures have led to a slowdown in debt growth and a reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing the self-sustaining capabilities of local investment companies and accelerating their market-oriented transformation for long-term debt resolution [2][4]. Summary by Sections Debt Management in Shaanxi Province - The province has implemented a series of coordinated debt resolution measures, achieving notable results in debt replacement and risk mitigation. The central government has also supported these efforts through a comprehensive debt resolution plan [4][5]. - As of 2024, Shaanxi Province has secured significant government bond allocations for debt replacement, with a total of 1,192 billion yuan aimed at addressing hidden debts [6][8]. Financial Performance of Local Investment Companies - The financial performance of local investment companies in Shaanxi shows a trend of slowing investment growth, with construction assets constituting approximately 68% of total assets. The report notes that investment growth rates have varied across different cities, with some cities like Shangluo and Baoji showing higher growth rates [10][11]. - The report highlights that the overall debt scale of local investment companies has continued to grow, but at a slower pace, with a notable decrease in short-term debt ratios, indicating an improvement in debt structure [33][35]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The report indicates that cash flow from financing activities has shown a net inflow, although the scale of this inflow has been declining. The cities of Xi'an and Xianyang have maintained positive net inflows, while other regions have experienced net outflows [26][30]. - Accounts receivable have been increasing due to delayed project payments, but recent policies have aimed to clear overdue accounts, leading to a slowdown in the growth of receivables [19][20].

Core Insights - In 2025, China's bond market is expected to progress steadily while serving national strategies and deepening reforms, characterized by the emergence of the "debt market technology board" and systematic governance of local debt [1] Group 1: Market Innovation and New Openings - The "technology board" in the bond market was officially launched, with an issuance volume of 1.87 trillion yuan in 2025, driven by supportive policies from the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2] - The "green panda bond" mechanism was upgraded, enhancing international compatibility and attractiveness, which is crucial for aligning with global standards in the green finance sector [3] - Qualified foreign institutional investors were allowed to participate in domestic bond repurchase transactions, significantly improving liquidity management tools and enhancing the appeal of RMB assets [4] - The first private enterprise "Yulan bond" was issued, marking a new offshore financing channel for private enterprises through cross-border infrastructure [5] Group 2: Risk Mitigation and Regulatory Developments - Local debt risk management transitioned to a systematic governance phase, with measures such as issuing special refinancing bonds to effectively reduce hidden debt [6] - Regulatory enforcement intensified against market irregularities, with a focus on addressing issues like self-financing and concealed profit transfers, demonstrating a "zero tolerance" approach [7] - The Ministry of Finance reported on typical cases of hidden debt, reinforcing a lifelong accountability mechanism for borrowing [9] Group 3: Policy Coordination and Market Foundations - The People's Bank of China resumed operations for buying and selling government bonds, enhancing the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [10] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring the sustainable development of the government bond market [11] - The successful issuance of 4 billion euros in sovereign bonds in Luxembourg reflected strong international investor confidence in China's economic fundamentals [12] - The pilot program for commercial real estate REITs was launched, expanding the REITs market into the trillion-level commercial real estate sector [13] - The release of self-regulatory guidelines for bond valuation established a reliable pricing benchmark, crucial for maintaining market fairness and preventing systemic risks [14] Conclusion - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by a symphony of "innovation, governance, and openness," aiming for high-quality development, with significant transformations pointing towards a more mature and resilient modern bond market ecosystem [15]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference has successfully set the direction and boosted confidence for the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the work in 2026, providing a clear roadmap for future efforts [2] - The meeting emphasized the importance of avoiding impatience and adhering to the guiding principles, recognizing the unique potential and challenges faced by the Chinese economy at this stage [2][3] - The complexity of China's economy as a super-large economy means that high-speed growth is no longer feasible, and the focus should shift to innovation-driven, quality improvement, and structural optimization [3] Group 2 - Maintaining strategic determination involves avoiding reckless competition in emerging industries, which require substantial capital, talent, and a robust industrial foundation [4] - Addressing existing risks, such as those in the real estate sector and local government debt, requires a long-term, systematic approach rather than quick fixes [4][5] - The resolution of China's issues relies on development, with existing risks needing to be addressed through new growth, and confidence in market and technological reforms is essential [5]

Core Insights - Guizhou Province is facing significant local debt issues, with a total local government debt balance projected to reach 17,537.09 billion yuan by the end of 2024, and urban investment enterprise debt around 9,000 billion yuan, indicating a heavy debt burden compared to national averages [1][7][10] - The province has implemented a multi-faceted debt resolution strategy, supported by central government policies, which has led to a gradual reduction in urban investment enterprise debt and improved financing structures [2][20][43] Debt Characteristics - The local debt scale in Guizhou has been continuously increasing, with local government debt expected to reach 17,537.09 billion yuan and urban investment enterprise debt around 9,000 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [7][10] - There is a significant regional disparity in debt distribution, with urban investment enterprise debt concentrated in Guiyang and Zunyi, accounting for approximately 60% of the province's total [10][16] - Some cities are experiencing liquidity pressure, with cash assets insufficient to cover short-term debts, particularly in Zunyi and Guiyang [14][16] Debt Resolution Measures - Guizhou has limited self-resources for debt resolution but has received substantial support from central policies, forming a multi-dimensional debt resolution system [2][20] - Financial support includes loan extensions, interest rate reductions, and bond financing, with provincial banks providing over 1 trillion yuan in credit to issuing enterprises [2][30] - The province has issued special refinancing bonds and special new bonds, with cumulative issuance amounts ranking among the top in key provinces since 2024 [40][41] Debt Resolution Outcomes - The debt scale of issuing urban investment enterprises has been significantly reduced since the end of 2022, with a net repayment scale exceeding 350 billion yuan annually for 2023-2024 [2][44] - The concentration of repayment pressure has notably decreased, with the distribution of maturing bonds becoming more balanced [48] - Credit spreads for urban investment bonds have narrowed significantly, although they remain at a high level compared to other key provinces [50][53] Future Outlook - In the short term, liquidity risks are manageable under the current debt resolution policies, but repayment pressures for urban investment enterprises persist [3][20] - Long-term growth is expected in sectors such as liquor, mineral processing, digital economy, and new energy, which may help gradually resolve debt issues through economic development [3][20]