文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 核心观点 31省2026年预算报告已全部公布。 我们将31省分为6个经济大省/重点化债12省/中13省三大区域，分别做定 量、定性观察。 由三条老线索（收入目标、卖地收入预期、项目情况），可得定量结论： 1、公共财政收入增速有望自2009~2011年以来首次连续两年回升（目标增速2.7%，2025年实际为2.4% ，2024年实际为1.7%）。 其中，6大省边际承压 （2.4%，2025年实际2.7%）， 重债12省更乐观 （2.9 %，2025年实际2.8%）， 中13省最亮眼 （3.2%，2025年实际3.1%）。 2、卖地收入恢复增长压力较大（政府性基金收入目标增速-1.2% ，2025年实际为-8.2%、目标为0.1%）。 其中，6大省边际最乐观 （-2.4%，2025年实际-10.7%，预算-5.3%）， 重债12省 （-1.2%） 较2025年实 际 （-0.7%）、 预算 （0.7%） 增速均调降 ， 中13省 （0.4%） 较2025年预算增速（10%）大幅 ...

【宏观专题】 31 省预算观察：定量老线索，定性新变化 核心结论 3、"清欠"专项债将继续发行，节奏或更前置，规模或会更高（部分省份表述 为"任务艰巨"、"资金需求大"、"需求大幅增加"）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 31 省 2026 年预算报告已全部公布。我们将 31 省分为 6 个经济大省/重点化债 12 省/中 13 省三大区域，分别做定量、定性观察。 由三条老线索（收入目标、卖地收入预期、项目情况），可得定量结论： 1、公共财政收入增速有望自 2009~2011 年以来首次连续两年回升（目标增速 2.7%，2025 年实际为 2.4%，2024 年实际为 1.7%）。其中，6 大省边际承压 （2.4%，2025 年实际 2.7%），重债 12 省更乐观（2.9 %，2025 年实际 2.8%）， 中 13 省最亮眼（3.2%，2025 年实际 3.1%）。 2、卖地收入恢复增长压力较大（政府性基金收入目标增速-1.2%，2025 年实 际为-8.2%、目标为 0.1%）。其中，6 大省边际最乐观（-2.4%，2025 年实际- 10.7%，预算-5.3%），重债 12 省（-1.2%）较 2025 年 ...

Core Insights - The tax authorities aim to enhance the efficiency of tax revenue governance by 2026, ensuring the quality of tax income and maintaining a strict boundary against over-collection of taxes [3][9] - There will be a focus on regulatory oversight in key areas such as non-compliant tax incentives, overseas income, R&D expense deductions, and fraudulent invoicing [4][11] Policy Overview - The implementation of the VAT law and its regulations will be promoted to optimize the tax system structure [5] - There will be an emphasis on standardizing tax incentives while supporting key sectors and critical links [6] - Collaboration with relevant departments will continue to encourage new employment forms to participate in social insurance [7] Regulatory Focus - Continuous deepening of tax collection reforms and accelerating the revision of tax collection laws will be prioritized [8] - Strengthening oversight in key areas, including serious tax-related cases, will involve a joint mechanism to combat tax evasion and fraud [8] - The tax authorities will maintain a firm stance against over-collection of taxes and ensure effective tax collection practices [9] Compliance and Governance - 2025 is highlighted as a year of enhanced compliance regulation, with significant improvements in tax law adherence among business entities [11] - The trend of strong regulation and compliance is expected to continue into 2026, requiring businesses to invest more effort in tax compliance [11] - Establishing a tax system that aligns with new business models will be a focus, alongside the standardization of tax incentives to support the construction of a unified national market [11]

Group 1 - The medical beauty industry will no longer enjoy VAT exemption as profit-oriented medical institutions are excluded from the definition of "medical institutions" under the new VAT law and its implementation regulations [1] - The removal of VAT exemption for profit-oriented beauty medical institutions reflects the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference's emphasis on "standardizing tax incentives" [1] - The adjustment aims to avoid unfair competition in the medical beauty sector, which has shifted towards high-end consumption and does not align with the basic medical security attributes [1] Group 2 - The cancellation of export tax rebates for solar and battery products is expected to pose short-term challenges but will ultimately improve the domestic industrial landscape and enhance international competitiveness [2] - The focus on "standardization" aims to redirect tax incentive resources from broad-based approaches to targeted investments in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and public welfare [2] Group 3 - Tax incentives related to housing purchases, such as VAT exemptions for the sale of homes held for two years or more, are being extended to stimulate market activity and release potential housing demand [3] - The reform of tax incentives is a foundational task that requires a comprehensive evaluation mechanism to assess the effectiveness of existing policies and ensure dynamic management [3]