Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents basic data including the ChinaBond Composite Index at 254.4, the ChinaBond Long/Medium and Short - term Index at 245.4/209.1, the 10 - year inter - bank treasury bond yield at 1.65, and the enterprise/company/convertible bond scales at 70.2/23.7/6.9 trillion respectively [4] Summary by Related Catalog Government Debt Issuance - **Total Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and New Local Bonds**: In the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15), it was 2704 billion yuan, and in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22), it was 2048 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.4%, exceeding the same period last year [1][7] - **Net Financing of Government Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2190 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 2594 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 6.8 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds [1][7] - **Net Financing of Treasury Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2621 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1351 billion yuan. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 47.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] - **Net Financing of Local Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was - 430 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1243 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, 2.1 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][10] - **New General Bonds**: In the 24th week, 13 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 272 billion yuan was issued. The local deficit in 2025 is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 3610 billion yuan, with a progress of 45.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] - **New Special Bonds**: In the 24th week, 71 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 425 billion yuan was issued. The planned issuance of new special bonds in 2025 is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 3196 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 1699 billion yuan have been issued. The cumulative disclosed acquisition of idle land projects covers 4176 parcels, with a capital scale (including proposed) of about 4564 billion yuan [2][14] - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: In the 24th week, 267 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 527 billion yuan was issued. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][28] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In the 24th week, the net financing was - 6 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it is expected to be - 383 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][30]

Core Insights - Since May, various regions have announced plans for special bond acquisitions of existing land, indicating a significant push towards land recovery initiatives [1][3][17] - The issuance of special bonds aimed at real estate has seen a notable increase, with over 300 billion yuan allocated in the past two months [4][5] - As of the end of May, approximately 171 cities have proposed a total land recovery scale nearing 400 billion yuan, reflecting a growing trend in land recovery through special bonds [3][11] Special Bonds in Real Estate - The issuance of special bonds primarily targeting the real estate sector has reached 318 billion yuan, maintaining a steady level over the past two months [5][8] - In the first five months of the year, special bonds related to real estate totaled 1.3 trillion yuan, with 458.6 billion yuan specifically directed towards real estate, accounting for 34% of the total [5][11] - The provinces of Fujian and Jiangxi accounted for 50% of the newly issued real estate special bonds in May, highlighting regional disparities in bond issuance [8] Land Recovery Initiatives - The cumulative issuance of land reserve special bonds has exceeded 700 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated for land recovery [11][14] - In May alone, 61% of the special bonds aimed at real estate were designated for land reserves, totaling 193 billion yuan, with Fujian contributing 149.6 billion yuan [14][15] - The ongoing urban renewal actions are expected to enhance land use efficiency and stimulate the recovery of existing land and commercial properties [17]

Core Viewpoint - The use of local government special bonds to recover and purchase idle land is a significant measure to stabilize the real estate market in 2023, with various regions actively promoting this initiative [1][3]. Group 1: Special Bonds and Land Recovery - As of April 10, 2023, approximately 850 plots of idle land have been publicly announced for recovery using special bonds across Guangdong, Sichuan, Fujian, and Hunan, totaling 128.2 billion yuan [1]. - In March 2023, the pace of public announcements for land recovery accelerated significantly, with 511 plots announced, an increase of 217 from February, and a total amount of about 68.4 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 29% [1][3]. - The issuance of special bonds for land recovery has already been completed in Guangdong, Sichuan, and Hunan, with a combined issuance amount of approximately 40.2 billion yuan for 166 projects [3]. Group 2: Policy and Mechanism - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice in early March 2023 to clarify the requirements for bond issuance and the entities responsible for fund usage, aiming to streamline the approval process for special bonds [1][2]. - The notice emphasizes prioritizing the inclusion of idle land from the disposal list into land reserve plans, which is expected to promote regional development and stabilize land prices, thereby supporting downstream housing prices [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the progress, challenges remain in the implementation of special bonds for land recovery, including unclear bond quotas, difficulties in determining purchase prices, and a limited variety of purchasing entities [4]. - It is anticipated that other pilot regions for "self-examination and self-issuance" of special bonds, such as Fujian, Zhejiang, and Shandong, will accelerate their bond issuance for land recovery [4].

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In 2024, national general public budget revenue reached approximately CNY 22 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[7] - Local fiscal revenue growth (1.7%) outpaced central fiscal revenue growth (0.9%), with local revenue accounting for 54.3% of total revenue[1] - Government fund revenue declined by 12.2%, with land transfer revenue dropping significantly by 16% to CNY 4.9 trillion[1] Group 2: 2025 Budget Projections - The weighted growth rate of local general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 2.8%, with some major economic provinces (e.g., Guangdong, Jiangsu) below 3%[1] - Total local government fund revenue budget for 2025 is estimated at CNY 5.7 trillion, reflecting a 1% decrease[1] - The expected issuance of land reserve special bonds in 2025 is projected to be between CNY 600 billion and CNY 1 trillion[2] Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - Among 31 provinces, only Tianjin raised its GDP growth target for 2025, while half of the provinces lowered their targets, with a weighted GDP growth target of approximately 5%[2] - Fixed asset investment targets are also weakening, with 10 out of 19 provinces reducing their growth targets[2] Group 4: Debt Management Strategies - Local governments are focusing on five key strategies for debt risk management: strict control of new hidden debts, reduction of existing debts, reform of financing platforms, strengthening special bond management, and ensuring basic financial security[2] - Specific measures include prohibiting projects beyond fiscal capacity and enhancing monitoring of hidden debts[2]