【宏观专题】 31 省预算观察：定量老线索，定性新变化 核心结论 3、"清欠"专项债将继续发行，节奏或更前置，规模或会更高（部分省份表述 为"任务艰巨"、"资金需求大"、"需求大幅增加"）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 31 省 2026 年预算报告已全部公布。我们将 31 省分为 6 个经济大省/重点化债 12 省/中 13 省三大区域，分别做定量、定性观察。 由三条老线索（收入目标、卖地收入预期、项目情况），可得定量结论： 1、公共财政收入增速有望自 2009~2011 年以来首次连续两年回升（目标增速 2.7%，2025 年实际为 2.4%，2024 年实际为 1.7%）。其中，6 大省边际承压 （2.4%，2025 年实际 2.7%），重债 12 省更乐观（2.9 %，2025 年实际 2.8%）， 中 13 省最亮眼（3.2%，2025 年实际 3.1%）。 2、卖地收入恢复增长压力较大（政府性基金收入目标增速-1.2%，2025 年实 际为-8.2%、目标为 0.1%）。其中，6 大省边际最乐观（-2.4%，2025 年实际- 10.7%，预算-5.3%），重债 12 省（-1.2%）较 2025 年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the implementation of a new subsidy policy in Beijing for replacing old household appliances, which offers a 15% subsidy on the purchase price for six categories of energy-efficient appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan for televisions [1] - The subsidy program aims to enhance consumer experience by providing both online and offline purchasing options, allowing consumers to redeem subsidies directly during payment on various e-commerce platforms and at over 1500 registered stores in Beijing [1] - The policy is part of a broader initiative by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance to stimulate consumption and support economic growth through financial subsidies for equipment updates and green industry initiatives [2] Group 2 - The new fiscal subsidy policy covers multiple core areas, including equipment updates, green industry, and support for small and micro enterprises, with lowered application thresholds and increased subsidy amounts to effectively boost domestic demand and stabilize growth [2] - In the equipment update sector, subsidies range from 15% to 20% of fixed asset investments, with specific projects in technology innovation and green transformation eligible for up to 20% support, and loan interest subsidies available for up to 5 million yuan per enterprise [2] - The green industry is a key focus of the policy, with 35% of special long-term bonds allocated for green transformation, and the program has already shown significant impact in various regions, driving substantial consumer spending [3] Group 3 - The subsidy application process is designed to be accessible through both online and offline channels, with various government service platforms and partner merchants facilitating submissions, and deadlines for most applications set until December 31, 2026 [4] - The policy emphasizes strict management of subsidy funds, prohibiting misuse for investment or financial purposes, and establishing mechanisms to ensure efficient fund allocation directly to applicants [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden level while ensuring fiscal sustainability and health, highlighting the importance of tax reform and management in the context of economic governance [2][12]. Tax Burden and Fiscal Policy - Maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden requires finding increments from fair tax burdens, identifying new tax sources, standardizing tax incentives, and adapting to new situations to accelerate tax system construction and improve tax collection [5][11]. - The macro tax burden has been decreasing from 20.36% of GDP in 2017 to an estimated 16.29% in 2024, indicating a trend of significant tax reductions [4][11]. Tax System Reform - The key directions for tax reform include improving local taxes and direct tax systems, refining income tax policies, and standardizing tax incentives to ensure a fair tax burden [2][12]. - The article stresses the importance of adapting tax policies to the changing economic landscape, particularly as new economic drivers emerge [7][10]. Fiscal Management and Sustainability - The article discusses the need for cautious use of fiscal policy space to avoid excessive reliance on debt due to high spending demands and tax reductions [3][11]. - It highlights the importance of optimizing expenditure structures to ensure that funds are allocated to critical areas, particularly in social welfare [11][12]. Zero-Based Budgeting - The implementation of zero-based budgeting is seen as a way to enhance the efficiency of fiscal funds and improve overall fiscal policy effectiveness [15]. - This approach allows for a reassessment of spending priorities, ensuring that funds are directed towards high-performance projects while potentially cutting low-performance expenditures [15]. Government Investment Planning - The introduction of a comprehensive government investment plan aims to clarify government investment accounts and improve management of fiscal resources [16]. - This initiative seeks to address issues of fragmented funding and enhance the overall efficiency of government investments [16]. Economic Growth and Market Vitality - The article underscores the importance of economic growth and market vitality in addressing fiscal challenges, advocating for policies that create a conducive environment for economic expansion [17][18]. - It suggests that enhancing market vitality is crucial for resolving various fiscal issues, emphasizing the need for supportive policies that facilitate economic development [17][18].