2026.03.16-03.20 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第10周油厂大豆实际压榨量183.3万吨，开机率为50.47%， 豆粕库存76.05万吨。国内油厂压榨开机率持续回升，豆粕库存处于历史 同期偏高位置；养殖利润持续亏损，饲料企业采购谨慎，以刚需补库为 主。中东地缘局势支撑美豆成本，同时市场对后续巴西大豆到港节奏的 担忧加剧。综合来看，成本支撑与需求疲软博弈，豆粕期货中期趋势处 于宽幅震荡格局。 2 关注南美天气变化、美关税政策以及国内养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于上升通道,资金方面略微偏空。短期内 在成本支撑和地缘风险溢价的传导下，M2605或处于震荡偏强 格局。 本周策略建议 | 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 | | --- | 豆粕期价整体趋势处于上升通道,资金方面略微偏空。当前市 场情绪仍受地 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly PTA futures research report dated March 9, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - Recently, affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, oil prices have soared, driving up the prices of the industrial chain. The spot price of raw material PX has increased even more, and the PTA processing margin has been compressed. Due to the geopolitical impact, some domestic and foreign refineries have made defensive load adjustments, and the market is worried that raw material risks will force PTA plants to reduce or stop production, causing the basis to strengthen significantly. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the upward momentum still comes from crude oil [3] - On the supply side, Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton plant has reached full capacity, Dushan's 2.5 million - ton and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton plants have restarted, Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton plant has increased its load, and Yihua's 3 million - ton plant has shut down for maintenance. As of Friday, the domestic PTA load has been adjusted to 81% (+3.4%). On the demand side, two polyester plants were under maintenance last week, and multiple other polyester plants restarted, with some plants still ramping up. In March, the load is expected to remain around 80%. As the polyester load recovers seasonally, PTA will gradually reduce its inventory. The recent intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has significantly affected the industrial chain. Driven by costs, the closer to the front - end, the more obvious the increase. There is an expectation of PTA processing fee compression. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and oil price changes, which are the main variables in the recent PTA market [3] Group 3: Key Data - PTA futures (continuous): The latest price is 6,030 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 17.54% [5] - PTA output: The latest output is 1.5215 million tons, up 66,100 tons from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 4.54% [5] - Polyester chip operating rate: The latest rate is 81.35%, up 7.4 percentage points from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 10.01% [5] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate: The latest rate is 42.36%, up 30.6 percentage points from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 260.20% [5] - PXN: The latest value is 297 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of - 4.19% [5] - PTA cash - flow cost: The latest cost is 5,881 yuan/ton, up 923 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 18.62% [5] Group 4: Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend [4] Group 5: Report Structure and Content PX Market - PX futures and spot market review: Includes PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, and related price differences [7][8] - PX supply situation analysis: Covers PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [14][15][18] PTA Market - PTA futures and spot market review: Compares PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20] - PTA supply situation analysis: Involves PTA monthly production, operating rate, and social inventory [21][23] - PTA consumption situation analysis: Includes PTA export volume, monthly production of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament, and staple fiber, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [27][29][31] - Cost - profit analysis: Analyzes PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [33]