Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics of the international oil market, highlighting the impact of OPEC's production decisions, geopolitical factors, and trade policies on oil prices and market expectations [1][2][3][4]. Supply Side Dynamics - OPEC has agreed to accelerate production for the second consecutive month in June, increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day, which reflects a governance dilemma and strategic shortsightedness within the alliance [2]. - The increase in production is seen as a "punitive increase" aimed at enforcing internal rules, but it risks undermining OPEC's credibility as a stabilizer in the market [2]. - The reliance on short-term hard power (production scale) over soft power (market coordination ability) may lead to missed opportunities in the transition to a green economy [2]. Demand Side Dynamics - The extension of US-EU trade negotiations until July 9 by President Trump has temporarily alleviated tariff concerns, but ongoing policy uncertainty continues to suppress demand resilience [3]. - The trade war is expected to indirectly reduce global oil demand by 150,000 to 200,000 barrels per day due to increased supply chain costs and economic growth suppression [3]. - Despite the approaching consumption peak season, demand expectations are weakening, as indicated by rising US API crude oil inventories, making it difficult for oil prices to break out of their current range [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Iran has set its June light crude oil official selling price at a premium of $1.80 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, reflecting its strategy to counterbalance geopolitical risks [3]. - The ongoing stalemate in nuclear negotiations and the potential for increased sanctions on Iran could limit its supply, which may support oil prices if negotiations fail [3]. - Iran's ability to maintain exports through informal channels, despite sanctions, indicates a complex interplay of geopolitical risk and market dynamics [3]. Strategic Reconfiguration - The current market is characterized by a three-dimensional soft power counterbalance: supply-side factors include the risk premium from Iranian sanctions, while OPEC's production increase dilutes soft power value [4]. - Demand-side factors include the temporary easing of trade tensions against a backdrop of policy uncertainty that undermines long-term confidence [4]. - The need for oil-producing countries to innovate risk management tools and restructure collaborative mechanisms is emphasized to maintain energy soft power in a multi-dimensional competitive landscape [4].