Report Core View - Market trends are cyclical, with alternating periods of "integration" and "separation" similar to the rise and fall of the Three Kingdoms [2][3][4] - Traders should observe market changes, follow trends, and have patience and determination in holding positions during different market cycles [3][4][5] - Market cycles are not determined by fate but can be influenced by human strategies, and traders should choose trading cycles based on their own circumstances [4] Grouped by Historical Events and Market Analogies 1. Market "Integration" Phase - During the early stage of Cao Cao's rule, the market was in an "integration" state with orderly supply, stable demand, and price fluctuations within a narrow range [2] 2. Transition from "Integration" to "Separation" - The locust plague in the seventh year of Jian'an led to a supply - demand imbalance, similar to a market shift from "integration" to "separation" where prices soared [2] 3. Market Retracement and Consolidation - When Zhuge Liang governed Shu and launched six expeditions to the Qishan Mountains, the temporary setbacks were like market retracements during an upward trend, which are short - term "integration" within a "separation" phase [3] 4. Holding Position Strategy - Sima Yi's strategy of waiting patiently in the face of Zhuge Liang's attacks is analogous to the wisdom of holding positions in futures trading, emphasizing not being influenced by short - term fluctuations [3] 5. "Black Swan" Events in the Market - Deng Ai's surprise attack on Shu was like a "black swan" event in the financial market, which can change the market pattern unexpectedly [3] 6. Market "Separation" to "Integration" - The fall of the Three Kingdoms and the reunification under the Jin Dynasty represent the market's return to balance after a long - term "separation" phase, following the law of mean reversion [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in market sentiment and risk appetite, with the total public fund management scale reaching 34.05 trillion yuan by the end of Q2, an increase of 2.24 trillion yuan or 7% from the end of Q1 [1] - The performance of actively managed equity funds has rebounded, driven by the ability to generate excess returns, exemplified by the outstanding performance of Dongfanghong New Power Mixed A fund, which achieved a cumulative net value growth rate of 412.39% since its inception [1][2] - Zhou Yun, the fund manager, emphasizes a value-oriented and moderately contrarian investment strategy, focusing on high-quality companies with reasonable valuations [2][3] Group 2 - Zhou Yun's contrarian investment approach is based on deep research and value judgment, avoiding the pitfalls of blindly following market consensus [3] - The investment strategy involves recognizing market trends while maintaining a focus on value, as demonstrated during the structural bull market from 2019 to 2020, where Zhou Yun chose to avoid overpriced core assets despite facing performance pressure [3][4] - Zhou Yun's understanding of corporate value and market cycles has led to tangible returns, highlighting the importance of adapting strategies in response to significant market changes [5][6] Group 3 - The essence of successful investing lies in balancing the recognition of trends with value preservation, requiring investors to be both contrarian and trend-sensitive [6] - Zhou Yun advocates for a systematic review of investment processes, emphasizing the importance of learning from past experiences to refine investment methodologies [9] - The performance of Zhou Yun's managed funds, such as Dongfanghong New Power Mixed A and Dongfanghong JD Big Data Mixed A, showcases strong cumulative returns, outperforming their respective benchmarks [9][11]

Core Insights - The rise and fall of Takafumi Tsuji exemplifies the interplay between capital logic and human obsession, highlighting the risks of unchecked ambition and governance failures [2][7] Group 1: Rise of Takafumi Tsuji - Takafumi Tsuji's ascent began with a "political-business symbiosis" model established by his father, which allowed the Seibu Group to gain policy advantages through land and railway acquisitions [3] - By the 1980s, during Japan's economic bubble, Tsuji amassed land equivalent to one-sixth of Japan's territory, capitalizing on a 20% annual increase in land prices [3][4] Group 2: Governance and Management Style - Tsuji's management style was characterized by autocracy, with no board meetings for seven years and decisions made solely by him, leading to impressive growth rates during the expansion phase [4] - However, this lack of oversight created significant governance risks, as evidenced by his refusal to dilute family control through strategic investments, which later contributed to financial crises [4][5] Group 3: Financial Decline and Ethical Failures - The collapse of Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s led to a dramatic decline in Tsuji's wealth, which fell from approximately $20 billion in 1990 to $500 million by 2000 [5][6] - Tsuji resorted to financial fraud to maintain control, misreporting ownership stakes and ultimately facing legal consequences, including arrest for insider trading and accounting fraud [6][7] Group 4: Lessons for Investors and Entrepreneurs - The case of Takafumi Tsuji underscores the importance of genuine asset valuations over mere scale, emphasizing that cash flow health is critical [8] - It also highlights that governance structures are essential for risk management, as autocratic management can lead to vulnerabilities during economic downturns [8] - Lastly, the story illustrates that obsession can be detrimental to capital management, as Tsuji's refusal to sell during the bubble's peak led to catastrophic losses [8]

看着美联储主席鲍威尔那张眉头紧锁的脸，我不禁想起十年前在复旦读书时教授说过的话："金融市场最大的谎言，就是让你以为你看到的就是真 相。"如今这一幕正在全球上演。 美国经济数据就像个精神分裂症患者：失业率4.1%看似健康，但新增就业却远低于历史水平；AI投资热火朝天，服务业消费却连续下滑。鲍威尔这 老哥现在就像站在十字路口的迷途旅人，往左走怕错过遏制衰退的时机，往右走又担心重蹈误判通胀的覆辙。 这让我想起2015年A股的场景。当时官方数据一片大好，但量化系统早就发出预警。现在回头看，那些所谓的"经济向好"不过是给散户准备的迷魂 汤。鲍威尔的困境告诉我们：在金融市场，表面数据往往是最危险的陷阱。 一、美联储迷雾下的投资困局 二、消息面背后的残酷真相 最近市场有个特别有趣的现象：「强者恒强，物极必反」。这八个字看似简单，却道破了A股最残酷的游戏规则。 我观察到的真实情况是：消息面对股价的作用不是引导，而是强化。就像给火堆浇汽油，火势会更大，但火种早就存在。散户们把结果当原因，本 质上是「张冠李戴」。更讽刺的是，当涨到极致时，同样的消息面又会反噬股价，这时散户又归因为"涨多了要调整"，完全是「错进错出」。 三、量化数 ...