以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 历史不会重复，但是它自然成韵。 第一，资金驱动明显，存款搬家入市叠加杠杆资金入市。央行数据显示居民、企业存款减少，非银存款 增加，出现存款搬家迹象。2025年7月居民存款减少1.1万亿元、企业存款减少1.46万亿元、非银存款增 加2.14万亿元 ，资金从存款向股市等金融资产转移，为股市带来增量资金。 第二，政策积极支持。中央政治局会议提出持续稳定和活跃资本市场，提高资本市场的吸引力和包容 性，提振了投资者信心。监管部门从货币政策工具优化，到险企股票投资、上市公司并购重组等规则完 善，诸多政策协同发力，持续优化市场生态。 第三，产业趋势向好。AI大模型训练与推理需求激增，带动GPU、ASIC芯片、服务器、光模块、液冷等 核心环节订单放量。科技成长作为政策主线，在十五五规划等政策支持下，有望持续发展，为相关企业 带来机遇。 打开浏览器，手指抖得厉害，搜"股市见顶信号""大盘回调预警"，弹出来的却全是 "沪指剑指4000点""新一轮 牛市确立"。财经博主们在视频里挥着手臂，说现在下车就是踏空，新闻标题里的暴涨、新高像重锤，一下下 砸在心上。 如今的股市行情 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After nearly four months of consolidation, the stainless steel market is regaining upward momentum, and it is expected that this year's peak - season market may exceed seasonal norms and show stronger performance. The multi - wheel drive includes the continuous optimization of the supply - demand structure at the industrial level and the synchronous improvement of the domestic and foreign economic environment at the macro level. The systematic repair of market expectations will provide more lasting support for stainless steel prices than just supply - demand improvement [6][21]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Sentiment - Since the Trump administration's tariff increase policy in early April 2025, stainless steel futures prices have been at a low level, even dropping to the 12,000 - yuan mark. With the improvement of the domestic commodity market sentiment and industry prosperity, the prices have recovered the April 7th high [3][6]. - The basis between the spot and futures of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is in a reasonable range, with strong linkage between the futures and spot markets and no obvious price divergence. Supported by the steady recovery of demand, the spot market quotation shows a mild upward trend, and the trading atmosphere has improved [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of upstream ferronickel and ferrochrome have remained stable recently, providing relatively stable support for the production cost of stainless steel. Under the double benefits of steadily rising spot prices and stable raw material costs, the profit margin of steel mills has been gradually repaired, and some loss - making steel mills have turned losses into profits [7]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - Affected by seasonal weak demand, the market could not digest the previous supply, resulting in low trading volume, high inventory (both implicit and explicit), and a significant blow to steel mills' production enthusiasm, leading to many production cut announcements in early July [14]. - With increased production cuts by steel mills and the release of macro - favorable policies, the stainless steel futures market stabilized and rebounded first, driving up spot prices. The supply contraction expectation increased, and the spot market adopted a price - stabilizing and sales - promoting strategy, resulting in improved trading volume in July and a gradual decline in inventory levels [14]. Macroeconomic Factors - The M1 - M2 gap is continuously narrowing, and the M1 growth rate has significantly increased recently, indicating an increase in corporate current deposits, higher market trading activity, and a strengthening investment willingness in the real economy. Although key indicators in the downstream real estate industry are still in negative growth, the decline is narrowing, showing signs of bottoming out. Speculative demand has increased significantly due to improved market expectations, which is expected to support stainless steel prices [17].

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around George Soros's reflexivity theory, which emphasizes the dynamic interaction between market participants' perceptions and market realities, leading to cycles of feedback that can significantly distort prices from their fundamental values [2][3][5] - Soros's successful shorting of the British pound during the 1992 crisis exemplifies the practical application of reflexivity, where he identified a critical point of imbalance between the pound's valuation and the underlying economic conditions, triggering a market panic [3][4] - The articles highlight that investors should adopt a perspective of observing trends rather than adhering strictly to traditional value investing principles, as market emotions can lead to prolonged deviations from intrinsic value [3][4] Group 2 - Entrepreneurs are encouraged to understand the "cognitive shaping power" within reflexivity, recognizing that market demand is not static but can be influenced and guided through effective branding and consumer engagement [4] - The case of Tesla illustrates how reshaping consumer perceptions about electric vehicles through innovative marketing and product development can create new demand, demonstrating the practical implications of reflexivity in business [4] - The ultimate message of reflexivity theory is to respect the complexity of markets, acknowledging that there are no eternal equilibria, only evolving cycles influenced by the interplay of cognition and reality [5]

Group 1: Semiconductor IPO Trends - The recent surge in IPOs on the STAR Market has seen 17 companies update their progress, with the semiconductor sector leading, raising a total of 24.1 billion yuan from 6 companies [1] - Notably, Moer Thread's fundraising of 8 billion yuan and a staggering 208% compound annual growth rate in revenue have drawn significant attention [1] - The excitement surrounding these IPOs may mask underlying investment logic, reminiscent of the internet bubble in 2000 where unprofitable companies had inflated valuations [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by an external leverage-driven environment, where news plays a dominant role in short-term trading, often reinforcing price movements rather than guiding them [4] - The interaction between stock prices and news can lead to a "Matthew Effect," where strong performers continue to excel, while the "mean reversion" theory suggests that prices will eventually oscillate around their intrinsic value [4] Group 3: Investment Pitfalls for Retail Investors - Retail investors often struggle to differentiate between "virtual declines" and "empty rises," leading to panic during price drops and chasing after false rebounds [5][12] - Understanding the underlying capital movements is crucial, as the essence of stock trading is a struggle for pricing power, which is predominantly held by institutional investors [8] Group 4: Quantitative Thinking and Data Utilization - The importance of quantitative thinking is emphasized, as retail investors tend to focus on superficial market trends rather than the underlying data [15] - Moer Thread's significant fundraising is contrasted with its 3.8 billion yuan R&D investment, indicating a company genuinely engaged in development, while other companies may not have the same depth [15] - Retail investors are encouraged to utilize data-driven tools to navigate the market effectively, especially in an era of information overload [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual characteristics of the current dollar cycle, highlighting its resilience and divergence from historical patterns, suggesting that the dollar may have entered a downward cycle since 2025 due to structural changes in the U.S. economy and global dynamics [1][46]. Historical Review of Dollar Cycles - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, the dollar has experienced three major appreciation cycles, with significant increases in the DXY index during each period [2][5]. - The current dollar appreciation cycle began in 2008, lasting 17 years and resulting in a 40% increase, marking it as the longest cycle since the Bretton Woods system's dissolution [3][5]. Current Characteristics of the Dollar Cycle - The dollar's peak values have shown a downward trend over the years, indicating a decreasing relative strength of the U.S. economy globally [6]. - The current cycle exhibits three unusual divergences: a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves, a lack of impact from expanding fiscal and trade deficits, and a strong dollar despite rising inflation in the U.S. [7][10][12]. Threefold Analysis Framework - The dollar's exchange rate is fundamentally influenced by the relative performance of the U.S. economy compared to other major economies [15]. - Monetary policy from the Federal Reserve significantly impacts the dollar's strength, with tight monetary policies historically supporting dollar appreciation [20]. - Capital flows are closely linked to the dollar index, with geopolitical factors also playing a crucial role in influencing these flows [21]. Feedback Mechanisms - The dollar's appreciation has asymmetric effects on the global economy, increasing financing costs for other countries while benefiting the U.S. economy [21][22]. - Positive feedback mechanisms exist where dollar appreciation leads to worsening debt burdens for other economies, further driving capital flows into the U.S. [22]. Current Trends and Future Outlook - Since 2025, there are signs that the dollar may be entering a downward cycle due to weakening relative advantages of the U.S. economy and declining risk appetite for dollar assets [34][38]. - The structural changes in the U.S. asset and liability landscape suggest a strong motivation for the U.S. to seek dollar depreciation to manage its growing net liabilities [35][36]. - Market sentiment is shifting, with a notable decrease in net long positions on the dollar, indicating a growing bearish outlook [38][40]. Conclusion - The current dollar cycle is characterized by unprecedented features, with the potential for a downward trend driven by both domestic and international factors, including the competitive landscape in technology and economic policies [45][46].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 推荐理由 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 致致致致致敬敬敬敬敬每每每每每一一一一一位位位位位平平平平平凡凡凡凡凡而而而而而伟伟伟伟伟大大大大大的的的的的劳劳劳劳劳动动动动动者者者者者 《金融炼金术 》 乔治·索罗斯 • 《金融炼金术》是金融巨鳄乔治·索罗斯的哲学沉思录，更是一部颠覆传统经济 学范式的经典之作。不同于主流经济学对"理性人"假设的迷恋，索罗斯以"反身 性理论"为核心，揭示了金融市场中参与者认知与客观现实互相作用的动态本质 ——人的偏见会扭曲市场，而扭曲的市场又进一步强化偏见，形成永动的反馈 循环。这一理论不仅解释了他为何能精准狙击英镑、预言金融危机，更提供了 一种理解复杂系统的思维方式：市场不是冰冷的数学游戏，而是人性与规则的 共振场。 《中国的选择 》 新加坡 马凯硕 推荐理由 • 以全球视角深度解析中国发展逻辑与外交战略。作者结合历史纵深与现实案 例，客观呈现中国崛起背后的制度韧性、文化基因与治理智慧，同时直面西方 误读，揭示中西博弈的本质差异。书中既有对"一带一路""人类命运共同体"等战 略的透彻分析，又通过经济数据与民生改善案例，展现中国道路的实践成 ...