1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the urban investment bond market continued to tighten. The domestic issuance scale declined for two consecutive years after peaking in 2023, and the net financing turned negative for the first time. The overseas financing policy moved closer to the domestic one, and the urban investment bond market entered the stock era. The reduction in non - key provinces was particularly obvious [3][13]. - In 2026, it is the last year of this round of local debt replacement. The refinancing environment of urban investment enterprises is expected to remain tight. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds is about 4.6 trillion, and the net outflow may exceed 100 billion. The debt repayment pressure of key regions such as Yunnan, Guangxi, and Tianjin remains high [6][13][60]. - In the future, attention should be paid to the liquidity pressure of urban investment enterprises under the countdown of "exiting the platform", the progress and efficiency of asset revitalization, the negative impact of government arrears, and the transformation quality of urban investment enterprises [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Urban Investment Bond Features - **Issuance scale continued to decline, and net financing of domestic and overseas urban investment bonds turned negative**: The domestic issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 5.30 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.48%. The net financing scale was - 1574.69 billion yuan. Only provincial and AAA - rated urban investment entities had positive net financing. The overseas issuance scale decreased by 17.89% year - on - year, and the net financing scale turned from positive to negative, reaching - 2905 million yuan [4][17][21]. - **The proportion of debt rollover increased, and the level of financing subjects for new - type urban investment bonds rose**: The broad - sense debt rollover ratio of domestic bonds reached 98.58%, and the narrow - sense ratio reached 93.40%. The overseas broad - sense debt rollover ratio increased by 16.27 percentage points to 67.99%. The financing subjects for new - type urban investment domestic bonds were mainly provincial and AAA - rated entities [33]. - **Net financing in non - key provinces declined significantly, and credit spreads in each province generally narrowed**: Both key and non - key regions had net outflows of urban investment bonds, with non - key regions having a deeper net outflow. 13 provinces had a 100% debt rollover ratio. The credit spreads of 31 provinces narrowed, but regional risk differences still existed [39][40]. - **"Exiting the platform" and transformation accelerated, and the progress in the eastern and central regions was faster**: The number of restructuring and integration events of urban investment enterprises increased year by year. More enterprises declared to become market - oriented business entities or exit the financing platform list, especially in the eastern and central regions. Some entities achieved their first bond issuance after "exiting the platform" [48]. - **Credit risk events in key provinces decreased, and economic provinces faced relatively large debt pressure**: The number of non - standard defaults and commercial bill overdue events of urban investment enterprises decreased. However, the credit risk of urban investment enterprises spread from weak to strong regions and from low - level to high - level entities. Economic provinces such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Henan faced relatively large debt pressure [53][55]. 2026 Issuance Forecast - **Maturity and put - back pressure remains high**: The maturity scale of urban investment bonds in 2026 is about 3.47 trillion yuan, and the put - back scale is about 840 billion yuan, with a total of 4.31 trillion yuan. Key regions such as Yunnan, Guangxi, and Tianjin face relatively large debt roll - over pressure [60]. - **Early redemption scale and proportion remain at a certain level**: In 2025, 1369 urban investment bonds were redeemed early, with a total scale of 241.655 billion yuan. The early redemption scale of key provinces accounted for 13.54% of the total maturity scale, much higher than 3.26% in non - key provinces [64]. - **Issuance scale is expected to be about 4.6 trillion, and net outflow may exceed 100 billion**: The refinancing environment of urban investment enterprises will remain tight. The issuance scale is expected to be between 4.5 and 4.6 trillion yuan, and the net outflow trend is difficult to reverse. The proportion of debt rollover will remain high, and the level of financing subjects for new - type urban investment bonds may continue to rise [6][67][68]. Follow - up Concerns and Investment Strategies - **Follow - up concerns**: Pay attention to the liquidity pressure of urban investment enterprises under the countdown of "exiting the platform", the progress and efficiency of asset revitalization, the negative impact of government arrears, and the transformation quality of urban investment enterprises [73][74][76][77]. - **Investment strategies**: In 2026, urban investment bonds still have certain allocation value. Investors can explore short - duration urban investment bonds of medium - and low - grade in regions where debt - resolution policies are well - implemented. In 2027, June may be a critical differentiation point for urban investment enterprises. Investors should be vigilant against the credit risk of weak entities after the withdrawal of debt - resolution policies [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The high-pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, and emphasis is placed on preventing the "risk of risk disposal." Local governments are accelerating their exit from the list of key debt provinces. The issuance and trading of local government bonds and urban investment bonds have shown certain trends, and the dynamic adjustment of the debt situation and corporate operations need to be continuously monitored [2][4][8] Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Policy for Inter - city Railways**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an opinion to regulate inter - city railway construction, focusing on debt risk control from both asset and liability sides. On the asset side, strict access and exit standards are set based on passenger flow density; on the liability side, high - risk areas are restricted from adding new local government debt for inter - city railway construction [5][6][7] - **Exit from Key Provinces**: Jilin officially announced its successful exit from the list of key debt provinces, and Qinghai aims to exit in 2026. After exiting, the provinces may promote infrastructure investment and economic recovery, but risks such as blind transformation of urban investment enterprises should be watched out for [8] - **"Exit from Platform" of Urban Investment Enterprises**: Nine urban investment enterprises declared to become market - oriented business entities or exit the financing platform list this week, mainly in the infrastructure investment and financing industry. Since October 2023, a total of 1012 enterprises have made such declarations, with more in eastern provinces [11] - **Early Redemption of Bonds**: Twenty - three urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 24 bonds with a total scale of 39.15 billion yuan [13] - **No Postponement or Cancellation of Bond Issuance**: There was no postponement or cancellation of urban investment bond issuance this week [14] 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds increased this week, and the stock scale exceeded 55 trillion yuan for the first time. A total of 26 local bonds were issued, with new bonds and refinancing bonds issued. The weighted average issuance term decreased, and the issuance cost decreased [14][15] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds increased this week, with a decrease in issuance interest rate and a narrowing of issuance spread. The issuance was mainly private - placement bonds, with a 5 - year term as the main type. The issuer's main body level was mainly AA +. One overseas urban investment bond was issued [20] 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Market Liquidity**: The central bank conducted net investment in the open market, but due to the approaching Spring Festival and tax - payment period, the capital market was tight, and short - term capital interest rates increased [26] - **Level Adjustment and Credit Events**: There were no urban investment level adjustment events or urban investment credit risk events this week [26] - **Local Government Bonds**: The spot trading volume of local government bonds increased by 3.90%, and the maturity yields of most terms decreased, with an average decline of 2.67BP [26] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 0.98%, and the maturity yields of most terms decreased, with an average decline of 2.74BP. The credit spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed [27] - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: Thirteen abnormal transactions of 11 bonds of 9 urban investment entities occurred this week, with a decrease in the number of abnormal transactions, entities, and bonds compared with the previous period [27] 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - Forty - two urban investment enterprises issued announcements on changes in senior management, legal representatives, etc., changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, cumulative new borrowings, and name changes [32]