2026 年度固收策略电话会议 20251230 摘要 预计 2026 年货币政策适度宽松，或有一次降息，时间窗口可能在春节 后一季度内，但 1 月降息概率较低。央行可能通过买断式逆回购或降准 保持资金宽松，以支持政府债券发行。 2026 年通胀预计回升，CPI 均值约 0.5%，PPI 均值约-1.1%，GDP 平 减指数约 0.3%，将使 10 年国债中枢上升近 10BP。若央行降息 10BP，全年利率中枢大致维持在当前 1.8-1.85%水平。 2026 年债券投资可采用 2-3 年信用套息策略，净 carry 约为 40BP 以 上，加上少量杠杆，预计回报可达 2-2.1%。关注低频、高胜率、高赔 率的单边策略，如降息预期升温时关注 5 年和 10 年利率债。 短期内关注短端国债、政金债和存单，重点关注两三年信用债和 5 年国 开债。若央行超预期降息或买债规模提高，可考虑持有长端活跃券，否 则进行短期高频交易。 预计 2026 年财政规模扩张，但幅度小于前一年。政府债供给压力集中 在 1-3 月、5-6 月和 8-9 月，央行可能在 1-2 月、5 月和 8 月保持流动 性支持。4-5 月和 7 月或 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The issuance rhythm of local government bonds has shifted from being concentrated in the second and third quarters to a more balanced distribution throughout the year. Since 2019, especially after 2020, the issuance scale in the first and fourth quarters has significantly increased due to policies emphasizing "front - loaded efforts" and "balanced issuance" [2]. - The issuance scale of local government bonds is constrained by the issuance quota. The estimated early - batch quota for 2026 is about 3.12 trillion yuan, calculated based on the 2025 local debt new quota and the proportion of pre - allocated new quotas in previous years [2]. - The gap in local government debt quota scale between different regions has widened. Developed regions have more high - quality projects that can generate stable cash flows, enabling them to issue more special bonds, while less - developed regions lack such projects [2]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds has been significantly advanced, and the peak issuance of new bonds has shifted from the second quarter to the third quarter [2]. - The pricing logic of local bonds has changed from "seasonal supply - demand dominance" to "asset shortage and policy expectation drive". After the approval of the 6 - trillion debt replacement quota in 2024, the spread of general bonds generally narrowed, while that of special bonds widened [2][3]. - There is a structural differentiation in local bond spreads, and the risk premium of special bonds has gradually emerged [3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Local Government Bond Issuance Rhythm - From 2015 - 2018, the issuance of local government bonds was highly concentrated in the second and third quarters. After 2019, especially after 2020, the issuance in the first and fourth quarters increased significantly [2]. - From 2022 - 2024, the proportion of refinancing bond issuance completed in the first quarter increased year - by - year, and the issuance peak of new bonds shifted from the second quarter to the third quarter [2]. 3.2 Local Government Bond Issuance Quota - The issuance scale of local government bonds is restricted by the issuance quota. The estimated early - batch quota for 2026 is about 3.12 trillion yuan, based on the 2025 new quota of 520 billion yuan and the 60% pre - allocation ratio in recent years [2]. - From 2016 - 2024, the special debt quota of Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Henan increased significantly, and the general debt quota of Hunan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang increased more. The gap in debt quota scale between different regions widened [2]. 3.3 Local Bond Pricing Logic - From 2022 - 2023, the pricing logic of the local bond market was "seasonal supply - demand dominance", with clear seasonal fluctuations in spreads. In 2024 Q4, it changed to "asset shortage and policy expectation drive", with the fourth - quarter spread not rising but falling and regional spreads converging [2][3]. - After the approval of the 6 - trillion debt replacement quota in 2024, the spread of general bonds generally narrowed, while that of special bonds widened. The spread of special bonds in economically developed provinces with large issuance scales increased less, while that in regions with high debt pressure increased significantly [3]. 3.4 Local Bond Spread Differentiation - From 2024 Q3 to 2025 Q1, the spread between general bonds and special bonds showed a structural change. In 2024 Q4, the spread of special bonds widened, and this trend continued in 2025 Q1 [3].