债券 2026 年 3 月 6 日 政府工作报告学习体会 政策性金融工具积极发力，货币强调灵活高效 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 风险提示：1）外围地缘政治局势急剧变化；2）降准降息时机和力度存在不 确定性；3）经济数据开门红情况不及预期。 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 LIULU979@pingan.com.cn 郑子辰 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521090001 ZHENGZICHEN160@pingan.com.cn 前言：2026 年 3 月 5 日，全国两会召开，发布 2026 年《政府工作报告》。 "十五五"规划开局之年，目标设置基本符合市场预期。1）2026 年 GDP 增速设定在 4.5%-5%左右的区间目标，强调"在实际工作中努力争取更好 结果"。2）居民消费价格涨幅目标维持 2%左右，持平去年；3）城镇调查 失业率目标 5.5％左右，城镇新增就业目标 1200 万人以上，持平去年。 财政政策方面，2026 年政府债供给规模基本持平，政策性金融工具超预期。 财政政策延续"更加积极"的基调，考虑到置换债后，2026 年政府债供给 合计约 13.89 万亿，整体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key tasks and expectations for China's economic work in the coming year, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to economic growth and stability, as outlined in the recent Central Economic Work Conference [1][2]. Economic Growth Target - The economic growth target for next year is suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5%, with a focus on pragmatic and flexible approaches to allow for macroeconomic policy adjustments [2]. - The importance of balancing qualitative improvements and quantitative growth is highlighted, acknowledging both existing challenges and long-term positive trends in the economy [2]. Price Level and Inflation - Current price levels are low, but there has been a marginal improvement, with consumer prices rising by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [3]. - Industrial producer prices have seen a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, but the rate of decline has been narrowing since August [3]. - The expectation for next year's consumer price increase is around 2%, aligning with market trends and inflation management strategies [3]. Employment Goals - The article emphasizes the strong correlation between GDP growth and urban employment, estimating that a 1% increase in economic growth can create over 2 million jobs [4]. - The target for urban employment in the coming year is projected to exceed 12 million, considering the increasing number of college graduates and the focus on employment stability [5]. - The need for high-quality employment and the enhancement of employment support policies are also discussed, aiming for comprehensive development for workers [5]. Conclusion - Setting reasonable targets for economic growth, price levels, and employment is crucial for guiding economic work in the upcoming year and managing market expectations effectively [5].