记者 张一诺 "十五五"时期（2026—2030年）即将来临。根据党的十九届五中全会提出的《二〇三五年远景目标》， 我国将通过"十四五"、"十五五"、"十六五"三个五年的努力，到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化和人均 GDP达到中等发达国家水平。 "十五五"作为三个五年的中间节点，承上启下，意义之重大不言而喻。按照惯例，中央关于十五五规划 的建议稿有望在下周公布，这是"十五五"规划编制的指导性文件。 粤开证券 4.8% 国盛证券 4.8% 华泰证券 5% 分析人士指出，中国政府在"十四五"规划中首次没有设定量化的GDP增速目标，预计"十五五"规划很可 能会继续淡化增长目标。不过，要实现2035年远景目标规划设定的要求，"十五五"期间仍应保持一定的 经济增速。 根据智通财经采集的十家机构预测，未来五年我国年均实际GDP增长目标可能设在4.5-5%之间。专家普 遍看好中国经济韧性，认为短期波动不影响中长期向好趋势。 野村中国4-4.5% 中国银河证券 4.5%左右 中信证券 4.5%以上 国金证券 4.5-5% 中航证券 4.5-5% 东吴证券 不低于4.7% "考虑到'十六五'的经济增速中枢可能低于'十五五'， ...

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for China's economic and social development from 2026 to 2030, aiming to lay a solid foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035 [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 focused on long-term strategies for high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The goal is to maintain an economic growth rate of over 4.5% to achieve the socialist modernization objectives and ensure stable employment [1] Group 2 - The target for GDP annual growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is set at over 4.5% to meet the 2035 vision of doubling the economic total compared to 2020 [2] - Market expectations suggest that the average GDP growth rate should remain within a reasonable range over the next 15 years to achieve the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035 [2] - The potential average GDP growth rates are projected to be 4.7% for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and 4.4% for the "16th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Group 1 - The Philippines has revised its GDP growth target for 2025 down to 5.5-6.5%, from the previous range of 6-8% [1]

Economic Growth and Inflation - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at "around 5.0%", consistent with last year's target and actual growth, aligning with market expectations[2] - The CPI control target is set at "around 2.0%", marking the first time since 2004 that the target is below 3%, indicating a focus on moderate price recovery[3] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The fiscal deficit rate target for 2025 is increased to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a fiscal deficit scale reaching 5.66 trillion yuan[5] - The new local government special bond issuance scale is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from last year, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy stance[4] Investment and Debt Management - The total new government debt issuance for 2025 is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity[8] - 8 billion yuan of the new special bonds will be used to replace existing local government hidden debts, helping to control debt risks and alleviate repayment pressures[6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts of up to 0.5 percentage points, which is higher than the 0.3 percentage point cut in 2024[10] - The central bank may continue to implement structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors, with expectations for increased new credit and social financing[11] External Trade and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize external trade development amid increasing external economic uncertainties, with measures to support cross-border e-commerce and service trade[12] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market includes increasing loan support for "white list" projects and controlling new land supply to mitigate risks of corporate debt defaults[13]