作为"十五五"开局之年，2026年能否创造良好开局将深 刻影响着未来五年的宏观经济增长走势。其中，值得关注 的一个焦点便是GDP增速目标几何。 作者： 田进 封图：图虫创意 "十四五"时期，中国GDP总量接连跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元三个大台阶，2020— 2024年的年均实际增速为5.5%，远高于同期全世界3.9%的年均增速。中国2025年前三季度GDP增 速达5.2%，全年增速大概率在5%及以上。 作为"十五五"开局之年，2026年能否创造良好开局将深刻影响着未来五年的宏观经济增长走势。 其中，值得关注的一个焦点便是GDP增速目标几何。 被网络烂梗包围的小学生 因为发展中的问题与向好的趋势交织，市场对于中国经济2026年的增速存在不同看法。此前，多 位宏观经济专家预估2026年中国经济增速目标可能会设定在4.5%至5%之间。在实际增速方面，近 期，西部证券、中泰国际、中信建投预计2026年中国GDP增速仍可维持在5%左右；高盛中国研究 团队的预测值为4.8%，野村发布的全球宏观经济展望则预计明年中国GDP增速为4.3%，其中上半 年、下半年增速分别为4.1%、4.5%。 近几年，就业尤其 ...

有效需求不足是当前中国经济面临的持续性问题，因此要持续 扩大内需、提振消费、激发有效投资需求；另一方面，要通过 进一步优化和扩大有效供给，尤其是通过创新来实现有效供给 的提升，从而满足消费结构升级以及人口结构变化等带来的需 求结构变动，助力供需的结构性平衡。 作者：杜涛 封图：图虫创意 在宏观政策方面，会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 袁海霞认为，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，实现经济"开门红"对达成2035年远景目标具有更 加重要的政治经济意义，对稳定信心和预期也至关重要。财政政策将延续"更加积极"的基调，同 时也将"更加有为"，更加注重增强可持续性。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议提出"实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量……保持 社会和谐稳定，实现'十五五'良好开局"。 中诚信国际研究院执行院长袁海霞对经济观察报表示，有效需求不足是当前中国经济面临的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, aiming for an average GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period, with specific targets of around 5% for 2026-2027 and 4.5-5% for 2028-2030, indicating a need for an expansionary and proactive policy stance [2][3][5]. Economic Growth Targets - Historical data shows that previous five-year plans often set GDP growth targets that were exceeded, with average growth rates of 9.8% and 11.3% during the "10th" and "11th" plans, respectively, while the "14th" plan aimed for a reasonable range [4]. - The potential GDP growth for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.8% and 4.9%, with a specific focus on achieving an average of 4.84% during this period [6]. Policy Recommendations - The central government is advised to increase leverage and implement more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including maintaining a budget deficit rate around 4% and increasing special bond issuance [8]. - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on direct financial support for residents, particularly in service sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as lowering mortgage rates [9]. Long-term Economic Goals - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating an average annual growth rate of 4.17% during the "15th" and "16th" plans, which reflects a baseline target rather than an aspirational goal [7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a higher growth rate of over 4.7% to stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence, thereby enhancing investment and consumption [7].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is crucial for China's long-term economic goals, aiming for modernization and GDP per capita to reach levels of moderately developed countries by 2035 [1] Economic Growth Targets - Analysts predict that the average annual real GDP growth target for the next five years may be set between 4.5% and 5% [1][2] - The government is likely to continue the trend of not setting specific growth targets, focusing instead on high-quality development and resilience [2][5] - Specific forecasts from various institutions suggest a range of 4.5% to 5% for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with some analysts proposing a target of around 4.5% for 2026 and gradually shifting to about 4% by 2030 [2][3] Importance of High-Quality Development - The emphasis on high-quality development is highlighted, with a focus on improving technological self-reliance and addressing critical sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [3][4] - The government aims to balance supply-side reforms with demand-side improvements, addressing issues like domestic supply and demand mismatches [4][5] Long-Term Economic Goals - The goal of achieving a doubling of GDP or per capita income by 2035 is deemed feasible, with projections indicating that the average annual GDP growth should remain above 4.4% over the next decade [3][4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reflect a policy direction that is both expansive and proactive, with a focus on maintaining economic stability and growth [5][6]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for China's economic and social development from 2026 to 2030, aiming to lay a solid foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035 [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 focused on long-term strategies for high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The goal is to maintain an economic growth rate of over 4.5% to achieve the socialist modernization objectives and ensure stable employment [1] Group 2 - The target for GDP annual growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is set at over 4.5% to meet the 2035 vision of doubling the economic total compared to 2020 [2] - Market expectations suggest that the average GDP growth rate should remain within a reasonable range over the next 15 years to achieve the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035 [2] - The potential average GDP growth rates are projected to be 4.7% for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and 4.4% for the "16th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Group 1 - The Philippines has revised its GDP growth target for 2025 down to 5.5-6.5%, from the previous range of 6-8% [1]

Economic Growth and Inflation - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at "around 5.0%", consistent with last year's target and actual growth, aligning with market expectations[2] - The CPI control target is set at "around 2.0%", marking the first time since 2004 that the target is below 3%, indicating a focus on moderate price recovery[3] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The fiscal deficit rate target for 2025 is increased to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a fiscal deficit scale reaching 5.66 trillion yuan[5] - The new local government special bond issuance scale is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from last year, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy stance[4] Investment and Debt Management - The total new government debt issuance for 2025 is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity[8] - 8 billion yuan of the new special bonds will be used to replace existing local government hidden debts, helping to control debt risks and alleviate repayment pressures[6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts of up to 0.5 percentage points, which is higher than the 0.3 percentage point cut in 2024[10] - The central bank may continue to implement structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors, with expectations for increased new credit and social financing[11] External Trade and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize external trade development amid increasing external economic uncertainties, with measures to support cross-border e-commerce and service trade[12] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market includes increasing loan support for "white list" projects and controlling new land supply to mitigate risks of corporate debt defaults[13]