Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Amid the expansion of the Israel-Iran conflict, crude oil prices have soared by over 4%, and there is a strong sentiment of commodity rebound. However, due to the high difficulty of trading in the current geopolitical situation, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. - Given the lack of substantial progress in the second China-US talks and no new positive factors, the market is likely to decline rather than rise. The spot market price range is set, with slight price cuts to test the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Indexes - **NCFI**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1536.84 points on June 16, down 7.94% from the previous period. The NCFI European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4%; the NCFI US West route was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% [1]. - **SCFIS**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points on June 16, up 4.6%; the SCFIS US West route was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% [1]. - **SCFI**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 2088.24 points on June 13, down 152.11 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62%; the SCFI US West route was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% [1][2]. - **CCFI**: The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1243.05 points on June 13, up 7.6%. The CCFI European route was 1488.87 points, up 6.6%; the CCFI US West route was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% [1][2]. Market Conditions - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices continued to surge by over 4% last night, increasing the trading difficulty for the European routes due to their strong macro - attributes [3]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: In May, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), the services PMI was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), the composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - **China's Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - **US Economic Data**: In May, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (expected 49.9, previous 50.2), the services PMI was 52.3 (expected 51, previous 50.8), and the composite PMI was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [2]. Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, consider shorting with a light position when it rebounds above 2250; for the 2510 contract, consider going long below 1450, and set stop - losses [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Pay attention to the court's ruling, and currently adopt a positive spread structure [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: Take profits when each contract rallies, and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [3]. Market News - **Geopolitical News**: On June 17, the Israeli military announced that it had killed Iranian top military commander Ali Shadmani, which is expected to further intensify the Israel - Iran conflict [4]. - **Environmental Cooperation News**: The 10th China - EU Environmental Policy Ministerial Dialogue was held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to deepen cooperation in the field of ecological environment [4]. Contract Adjustments - **Circuit Breakers**: The circuit breakers for contracts from 2506 to 2604 were adjusted to 16% [3]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin requirements for contracts from 2506 to 2604 were adjusted to 26% [3]. - **Intraday Opening Limits**: The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has risen significantly, fulfilling positive expectations. Market sentiment is generally pessimistic, and risk - takers can consider lightly shorting at high prices [2]. - Attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US meeting. Without more positive news, the market is more likely to fall than rise. Key factors to watch include the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under tariff policy easing, and the final ruling result [4]. - Amid the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, although SCFIS has risen sharply, the positive sentiment has mostly subsided. The market is in a range - bound oscillation, and future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the US - West route price was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [3]. - On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period; the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [3]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [3]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high (expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, a two - month high (expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. Market and Policy Information - As of June 9, the main contract 2508 closed at 2065.6, down 2.55%, with a trading volume of 55,700 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 2100 lots from the previous day [4]. - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in the UK, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Attention should be paid to the court's ruling, and currently, a positive arbitrage structure is mainly adopted [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. - The daily price limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [5]. Trade Data - In the first five months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade. Exports to ASEAN were 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%; imports from ASEAN were 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [6][8]. - The EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Exports to the EU were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%; imports from the EU were 7283.3 billion yuan, down 6.1% [6]. - The US was China's third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Exports to the US were 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%; imports from the US were 4475.1 billion yuan, down 6.3% [6]. - China's total imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative were 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Exports were 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%; imports were 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2% [6].