Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.02% at 121.130, the 10-year main contract flat at 109.105, the 5-year main contract up 0.01% at 106.255, and the 2-year main contract up 0.01% at 102.514 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.8485%, and the 10-year government development bond yield also rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.7150% [1] - The 2-year government bond yield decreased by 0.25 basis points to 1.3575%, while the 3-year and 5-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point and 0.55 basis points respectively [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 572 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan [2] - The funding environment appears more relaxed, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 4 basis points to around 1.31%, and 7-day pledged repo rates down over 3 basis points to approximately 1.46% [2] - The issuance scale of government bonds in July is slightly lower, but the maturity of certificates of deposit is significant, and July is a month with high tax payments, which may cause fluctuations in the funding environment [2] Operational Recommendations - With funding rates continuing to decline, bond futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations with most varieties slightly rising, supported by a relaxed funding environment [3] - The short-term strategy suggests accumulating long positions during adjustments, while being cautious of profit-taking near previous highs, and monitoring economic data and funding trends [3] - The curve strategy may continue to focus on steepening opportunities, while the interest rate risk (IRR) is gradually increasing, suggesting a focus on positive spread strategies [3]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has increased by 0.02%, with the latest price at 124.37 yuan as of June 26, 2025 [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 1.18 billion yuan, with an intraday turnover of 7.28% [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 6.746 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF is 16.188 billion yuan [2] - The external environment remains uncertain, while internal policies are clearly hedging, leading to a weak recovery in the fundamentals, which makes it difficult to provide a clear directional trend for the bond market [2] - The bond market is expected to continue a narrow range of fluctuations, with factors such as tariff negotiations, monetary conditions, and institutional behavior potentially triggering small wave trends [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year treasury bonds with a maturity of 25-30 years [2]