1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Inflation expectations are rising, and long - term interest rates are increasing. The bond market is facing challenges with unclear main positive factors and many negative side factors. The stability of the capital side is crucial for the bond market trend. It is advisable to wait for the long - term interest rates to rise and the negative factors to be dulled before making allocations. Currently, 3 - year treasury bonds and government - backed financial bonds, 1 - year policy - bank bonds, and 1 - year certificates of deposit can be considered as defensive options [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation Expectations Rise, and Long - Term Interest Rates Increase - From March 9 - 13, inflation concerns affected bond market pricing. Long - term bond yields generally rose (e.g., 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield rose 3.2bp to 1.82%), while short - term yields showed mixed trends (1 - year treasury bond active bond yield fell 1.0bp to 1.26%). The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp increase in oil prices, and inflation data exceeded expectations, causing concentrated release of bearish sentiment in the domestic bond market [8][10][11] - The central bank's continuous net withdrawal of funds led to a decline in the reverse repurchase balance, but the capital side remained in a self - balancing state. The interest rate curve steepened, with long - term varieties rising under the drive of inflation expectations and short - term varieties showing a downward trend. The performance of credit bonds was similar to that of interest - rate bonds [12] 3.2 Bond Market Challenges: Unclear Main Positive Factors, Many Negative Side Factors - Fundamental improvement: Recent economic data such as 1 - 2 month exports, February inflation, and financial data were stronger than market expectations. However, the Spring Festival effect was the main factor for the short - term improvement. The marginal improvement of data may weaken the market's "loose money" expectation to some extent [2][19][20] - Inflation concerns are difficult to ease: Since the fermentation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict at the end of February, the price increases of various commodities have spread. The price increases of oil, shipping, chemical products, and agricultural products have made the market always concerned about inflation shocks, which are difficult to disprove in the short term [21][23] - The instability of institutional behavior has increased: Institutions' tolerance for short - term losses has decreased significantly. Once potential risks appear, trading desks such as funds and securities firms will reduce their positions consistently, which may amplify interest rate fluctuations [26] 3.3 As the Quarter - End Approaches, the Scale of Wealth Management Products Declines 3.3.1 Weekly Scale: A Month - on - Month Decrease of 44.5 billion yuan - In the first week of March, the scale of wealth management products rebounded, but the increase was weaker than the historical average. As the quarter - end assessment approached, the scale decreased by 44.5 billion yuan to 33.45 trillion yuan from March 9 - 13. It is expected that the scale will continue to shrink seasonally in the next two weeks [34] 3.3.2 Wealth Management Risks: The Retracement of Equity - Linked Products Narrows, and the Proportion of Products with Negative Yields Decreases - The retracement of equity - linked products narrowed, driving down the proportion of products with negative yields. The overall negative yield proportion of wealth management products decreased by 3.70pct to 5.59% this week. The rolling negative yield proportion in the past three months was 0.31%, slightly rising by 0.02pct from the previous week [41] - The proportion of wealth management products breaking the net value and those with unmet performance both decreased. The overall product break - even rate decreased by 0.20pct to 0.34%, and the overall performance non - compliance rate decreased by 0.3pct to 24.8% [50] 3.4 Leverage Ratios: Both Inter - Bank and Exchange Markets Decline - From March 9 - 13, the central bank continuously withdrew funds, and the capital interest rate fluctuated slightly. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the average overnight proportion also declined slightly [56] - The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly from 107.63% to 107.44%, the exchange leverage ratio decreased from 122.22% to 121.74%, and the non - bank institution leverage ratio decreased from 113.52% to 112.79% [60] 3.5 Interest - Rate Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds Compress Duration - From March 9 - 13, the duration of interest - rate medium - and long - term bond funds was compressed, with the weekly average duration decreasing from 3.43 years to 3.34 years. The duration of credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds increased slightly, with the weekly average duration rising from 2.05 years to 2.20 years [67][68] - The duration of medium - and short - term bond funds and short - term bond funds showed different trends. The duration of medium - and short - term bond funds decreased from 1.41 years to 1.38 years, while the duration of short - term bond funds increased from 0.71 years to 0.76 years [73] 3.6 The Issuance of Government Bonds Accelerates - From March 9 - 13, the planned issuance of government bonds was 85.72 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week. The actual issuance scale may reach 92.72 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds from March 16 - 20 is expected to expand [75] - In terms of local bonds, the issuance plan of 77.3 billion yuan of special bonds for debt resolution in 2026 was disclosed this week. From January 1 to March 20, the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was 2.3395 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 293.9 billion yuan [77][78] - In terms of treasury bonds, the planned issuance from March 16 - 20 is 51.5 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 45.5 billion yuan. From January 1 to March 20, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 931.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 291.2 billion yuan [79] - In terms of policy - bank financial bonds, 2.7 billion yuan will be issued on March 16, with a net issuance of - 2.53 billion yuan. From January 1 to March 16, the cumulative net issuance of policy - bank financial bonds was - 530 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 42.65 billion yuan [80]

Group 1 - The report presents an optimistic outlook for the bond market, particularly for 30-year government bonds, due to low risk of market correction in March and April, supported by recent monetary easing expectations and stable liquidity conditions [5][6]. - The analysis indicates that the 10-year government bonds are less favorable compared to 10-year policy bank bonds, as the latter shows higher trading volume and a widening tax spread since 2025, suggesting better capital gains potential in a bullish market [6]. - The report highlights the under-participation of public funds in 30-year government bonds, with only 31.5 billion yuan held by public funds compared to 63.3 billion yuan by large banks, indicating potential for excess rate declines if public funds increase their allocation [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report is overall optimistic about the bond market, especially the 30-year Treasury bonds [5][12]. - The callback risk of the bond market from March to April is not high [5][12]. - The 10-year China Development Bank bonds are more promising than the 10-year Treasury bonds [5][13]. - The 30-year Treasury bonds are expected to have an excessive decline in interest rates if product accounts gradually participate in the allocation [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - Amid geopolitical disturbances recently, the stock market is weak while the bond market is strong. As of March 4, the yield to maturity of the active 10-year Treasury bond has declined to around 1.79% [11]. Comment Low Callback Risk from March to April - The February PMI is lower than market expectations and has declined month-on-month. In the short term, fundamentals have limited suppressing effects on the bond market [5][12]. - Market expectations for loose monetary policy have risen. Investors expect reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts during the Two Sessions. As of March 3, the capital lending volume of large banks has rebounded to 5.63 trillion yuan after the holiday. The short - term interest rate was strong on March 4, with the TS contract main - continuous rising 5% on a single day [5][12]. - Attention should be paid to potential geopolitical fluctuations and the historical stock - bond calendar effect from March to April [5][12]. Preference for 10 - year China Development Bank Bonds over 10 - year Treasury Bonds - The liquidity of 10 - year Treasury bonds is under test. On March 4, the trading volume of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250022 was only 354 transactions, while that of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond 250220 reached 2484 transactions [5][13]. - The tax spread between 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds has been widening since 2025. If the liability side of public funds eases and the bearish bond market expectation weakens, the tax spread of various maturities is expected to compress [5][13]. Optimism about 30 - year Treasury Bonds - As of the end of February, public funds only held 315 billion yuan of the secondary - market position of the active bond 2500006, while large banks held 633 billion yuan. If product accounts gradually participate in the allocation of ultra - long bonds, the interest rate of this variety will decline excessively [5][14]. - Banks will gradually reduce their willingness to lend bonds around mid - to - late March to optimize first - quarter statement indicators. Currently, the net borrowing volume of securities firms in 30 - year Treasury bonds is at a new high, and the subsequent decline will drive short - covering forces [5][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The leading sectors in the stock index futures market have switched again, and it is still recommended to allocate long positions in IM [1][7] - For stock index options, it is mainly recommended to continue holding call options for defense [2][7] - In the treasury bond futures market, the motivation for taking profits may increase, and the market may be volatile in the short term [3][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the equity market was generally warm, with the ChiNext and STAR Market leading the gains, followed by CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The leading sectors switched to growth sectors such as electronics, new energy, and computers [1][7] - A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed a split performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling. However, the possibility of Hong Kong stocks dragging down A-shares during the holiday is considered low [1][7] - It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7] Stock Index Options - The equity index fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The trading volume of each option variety rebounded, but the trading volume this week was still relatively stable compared with the previous two weeks [2][7] - The implied volatility was relatively strong during the day. Considering the approaching holiday and expiration date, it is still recommended to continue holding call options for defense [2][7] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, the performance of treasury bond futures was divided, with T and TF rising and TL and TS falling, but the changes were not significant [8] - The central bank was still active in open market operations, with significant net capital injection, which supported the bullish sentiment in the bond market [3][8] - With the continuous strengthening of the bond market and the approaching Spring Festival, the motivation for bulls to take profits may increase, especially for ultra-long-term bonds [3][8] - In the medium term, the central bank's monetary policy may further strengthen, and the expectation of loose money may support the bullish sentiment in the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be volatile [3][8] - Operational suggestions include trend strategy (volatile), hedging strategy (pay attention to short hedging at low basis), basis strategy (basis is volatile), curve strategy (appropriately pay attention to the convergence of the 30Y - 10Y spread), and inter - period roll - over (the inter - period spread may have a certain downward momentum, and also pay attention to the change of the roll - over window period due to the Spring Festival) [8]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures are expected to be volatile and moderately strong; for stock index options, the rating is volatile; for treasury bond futures, the rating indicates a moderately strong trend in the medium - term and a need for short - term caution [5][6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Stock index futures followed the external market rebound. The A - share market's rise was related to the global risk - asset sentiment repair on Friday. Before the holiday, the probability of a rapid rebound is low. After the holiday, it is expected to rise moderately but with a slower slope than in January [5] - Stock index options have a warm market sentiment. The trading volume was relatively stable after the market's rise. Considering the approaching holiday and exercise date, it is recommended to use call options for defense [5] - Treasury bond futures saw an increasing bullish sentiment. Supply decreased, the central bank continued net injections, and the market's expectation of loose money increased. The bond market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium - term, but short - term caution is needed [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the equity market opened high and fluctuated at a high level, with the All - A index rising nearly 2%. Communication, media, and electronics were strong. The A - share rebound was related to the global risk - asset sentiment repair on Friday. Before the holiday, the low participation rate and risk - averse capital preference limit a rapid rebound. The weakening dollar index is a favorable factor. After the holiday, during the important meeting window period, the market is expected to rise moderately [5] - The operation suggestion is to hold IM long positions [5] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety declined significantly. After the market's rise, the trading volume was relatively stable. The strengthening of the option sentiment indicator (position PCR) and the decline in implied volatility suggest a warm market sentiment. It is recommended to use call options for defense to protect the overall portfolio's systematic risk [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Although the equity market was strong, the stock - bond seesaw effect did not occur. The bullish sentiment in the bond market increased due to the decline in supply and the central bank's net injection. The market's expectation of loose money also rose. In the first quarter, the bond - market allocation power may increase, supporting the bullish sentiment. In the medium - term, the bond market may be moderately strong, but short - term factors may cause disruptions [6] - Operation suggestions include a volatile trend strategy, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, a basis - volatile basis strategy, appropriately paying attention to the convergence of the 30Y - 10Y spread, and being aware of the downward momentum of the inter - period spread and the change in the inter - period transfer window due to the Spring Festival [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.8% for the first time since November 2025, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bonds as a safer investment amid high volatility in other asset classes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 9, the 10-year government bond yield reached a low of 1.793%, marking a cumulative decline of 10 basis points since January [1][2]. - The yield on the 10-year active bond "25附息国债16" fell to 1.8%, while the 30-year bond yield showed a slight increase, indicating a narrowing of the yield spread between different maturities [2]. - The bond futures market also saw gains, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.14% to 112.730 yuan [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recovery in the bond market is attributed to weak fundamentals and a supportive liquidity environment, with expectations of monetary easing gaining traction [3][6]. - The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3% in January, reinforcing market expectations for additional policy measures [3]. - Major state-owned banks have been net buyers of 10-year government bonds, with a cumulative net purchase of 993 billion yuan, indicating strong institutional interest [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the bond market will remain strong leading up to the Spring Festival, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing and a stable funding environment [5][6]. - Upcoming economic indicators, particularly inflation data, are expected to influence market dynamics, with concerns about supply and valuation pressures in the bond market [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the January long - short game, the market has seen some new changes. The PPI recovery speed may be faster than the previous neutral expectation, government bond supply is front - loaded with longer terms, and the expectation of broad monetary policy has further weakened. The bond market may face medium - term pressure, but there may be short - term trading opportunities with limited space [7][11][15][25][31] Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market in January - Interest rate showed a first - up - then - down trend in January. In the first two weeks, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate rose to around 1.9% due to factors such as supply concerns, dampened interest rate cut expectations, the seesaw effect of rising equities, and inflation concerns from strong commodities. In the middle and late January, with sufficient central bank liquidity injection and other factors, the market had a recovery window [2][7] - The bond market remained relatively resilient in the last week of January. The 7 - day reverse repurchase net investment was 5.805 billion yuan. The 7 - day funding rate rose significantly. The yields of both ends of the curve rose while the middle part declined. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 2bp to 1.81%. The duration of public - offering funds continued to rise [32][33][37] PPI and Inflation - In January, prices accelerated upward with a wider coverage, and the change was transmitted from raw materials to the end - products. The month - on - month increase of PPI in January may be between 0.15% and 0.25%, and the year - on - year may be in the range of - 1.53% to - 1.43%, with the year - on - year decline expected to narrow faster. The PPI may return to zero earlier than the previous neutral prediction [3][11] Government Bond Supply - In January, the overall net financing of government bonds was significantly higher than the seasonal level, showing the characteristic of front - loaded supply. The local bond issuance was skewed towards the medium - and long - term, with the issuance scale of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds increasing. The supply pressure will still be relatively high from February to March [4][15][24] Expectation of Broad Monetary Policy - Since the beginning of the year, the market's expectation of broad monetary policy has gradually cooled, and the overall level has further weakened compared with the end of last year. Although there may be opportunities for short - term game of easing expectations, the overall space for total easing is limited this year [5][25][27] Local Bond Issuance - In the last week of January, local bond issuance increased, and the issuance scale this year has been significantly higher than that of the same period last year. The weighted average issuance term of local bonds has generally increased slightly compared with the same period last year, and the issuance scale of 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds has almost doubled [54][57] - In the week from January 24th to January 30th, the issuance scale of new special bonds and ordinary refinancing bonds increased month - on - month. The weighted average issuance term increased slightly by 1 year to 17 years, and the issuance spread decreased by 1bp month - on - month [43][45][51] - The actual issuance progress of local bonds in January was 103% of the plan. The expected issuance scale of local bonds from February 2nd to 6th is 57.97 billion yuan [59][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved seven consecutive gains, but the upward movement was limited by the lack of a clear market trend, with rapid rotation of hotspots. It is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities by the end of the year, and investors should hold long - positions and wait for an opportunity to add positions after New Year's Day. Large - cap stocks are preferred over small - cap stocks [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the market is operating at a low volatility level, and there are no significant concerns. The trading volume is shrinking, and the market has not priced in excessive tail risks. A sell - option strategy is recommended [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the expectation of loose monetary policy is fluctuating. The short - end bonds may be relatively favorable, while the long - end bonds may be volatile due to expectations of loose monetary policy and supply [3][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index had seven consecutive gains. The total market trading volume was actually up nearly 200 billion yuan. The upward movement was restricted by the lack of a clear trend, and hotspots rotated quickly. Insurance was strong in the morning, and the commercial aerospace sector led the rally later, while the non - ferrous metals sector led the decline [1][6]. - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month basis points were - 10.54, - 0.04, - 12.71, - 32.38 respectively, with changes of 5.92, - 0.06, 14.73, 9.8 points compared to the previous trading day. Their inter - period spreads (current - month - next - month) were 13.4, 0, 41.4, 73.4 points, with changes of 0.2, - 0.6, - 5.8, - 0.2 points. The positions of IF, IH, IC, IM changed by - 563, 197, - 3891, - 3977 hands respectively [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold a combination of Dividend ETF + IC long positions [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The underlying market continued to perform optimistically. The trading volume of the options market was 7.08 billion yuan, a 7.55% decrease from the previous day. The PCR ratio of each variety has been operating at a low level recently, and the skew index is also relatively low, indicating that the market has not priced in excessive tail risks [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use a covered - call strategy [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The main contracts were weak. The T main contract oscillated and declined after the opening. The central bank's net MLF injection was 100 billion yuan, and the net 7 - day reverse repurchase operation was 88.8 billion yuan. The overnight funding situation remained loose, while the cross - year funding tightened. The T main contract was weak due to the lack of mention of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in the central bank's Q4 monetary policy meeting and the rise of the stock market [3][7]. - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts were 56,411, 49,022, 30,026, 95,007 hands respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 12,732, - 5,686, 3,525, - 15,756 hands. Their positions were 247,563, 156,449, 78,241, 143,219 hands respectively, with 1 - day changes of 4,062, 1,927, - 289, - 847 hands [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a trend - following strategy of range - bound trading. For hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis trading, pay attention to the widening of the basis. The yield curve may remain steep [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On December 22, 2025, China's December 1 - year and 5 - year loan prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. - On December 23, 2025, the US Q3 real GDP seasonally - adjusted annualized quarterly growth rate (preliminary value) was 4.3%, higher than the forecast of 3.2%. - On December 24, 2025, the number of initial jobless claims in the US on December 20 was 2.14 million, lower than the expected 2.24 million [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Exchange Rate**: The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark during intraday trading, the first time since September 2024. Most views believe that the RMB against the US dollar has the basis for continued appreciation in 2026 [10]. - **Trade Dispute**: The US Trade Representative's Office announced the results of a 301 investigation into China's semiconductor policies, imposing 301 tariffs on some Chinese semiconductor products. The current tariff rate is 0%, and it will be increased after 18 months (June 2027). China firmly opposes this [10]. - **Reverse Repurchase**: On December 25, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 177.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 88.8 billion yuan. The central bank also conducted a 400 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank's net MLF injection in December was 100 billion yuan, marking 10 consecutive months of increased MLF operations [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content mainly lists the sections of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided [12][16][28]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown significant differentiation since mid-November, with the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds widening to over 40 basis points due to lower-than-expected central bank bond purchases and strong profit-taking by institutions [1] - After a continuous decline, long-term bonds began to recover in late December, driven by expectations of loose monetary policy and various market influences, including potential reductions in long-term bond issuance [1][3] - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist into 2026, with increasing influence from asset pricing and institutional behavior on the bond market, while traditional allocation strategies face pressure from interest rate risk assessments [3][4] Group 2 - Fiscal policy is anticipated to remain proactive, while monetary policy will focus on coordination, with expectations for a deficit level around 4% and a corresponding scale of 5.9 trillion yuan [3] - The supply of bonds is projected to increase in 2026, but the marginal growth rate is expected to slow down, with a likelihood of one rate cut of 10 basis points and one reserve requirement ratio reduction [3][5] - The yield curve is expected to steepen further, with the 30-year and 10-year bond yield spread likely to remain elevated, and the market is facing uncertainties regarding central bank bond purchases and public fund redemption rates [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hotspots in the stock market are receding, and the bond market sentiment is warming up. In the stock index futures market, the previous hotspots are fading, and it is difficult to have systematic opportunities at the end of the year. In the stock index options market, the implied volatility is still in a downward channel. In the bond market, the sentiment is comprehensively warming up under the influence of broad - money and supply expectations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The previous hotspots are receding. The IF, IH, IC, and IM monthly basis points and inter - period spreads have changed. The IF, IH, IC, and IM positions have also changed. - **Logic**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed flat above 3900 points with a trading volume of 1.9 trillion yuan. The unsuccessful rocket launch affected the commercial aerospace sector, and the consumer sector also declined. With the approaching of overseas holidays and the end of the year, it is difficult to have systematic opportunities. It is recommended to allocate funds defensively with high - dividend and price - rising chains as the main lines, and large - cap stocks are better than small - cap stocks. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy Red - chip ETF and IC long positions [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: The implied volatility is still in a downward channel. - **Logic**: On Tuesday, the equity market fluctuated and was divided. The trading volume of the two markets increased, but the activity in the options market decreased. The implied volatility of each variety declined. In the context of tight liquidity at the end of the year, the market is in a digestion period, and it is recommended to focus on defense and continue the covered call strategy. - **Operation Suggestion**: Implement the covered call strategy [7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: Under the influence of broad - money and supply expectations, the bond market sentiment is comprehensively warming up. - **Logic**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures rose across the board. The warming of the bond market is related to the broad - money expectation and the government bond supply expectation. The short - term is benefited by the relatively loose capital, and the long - term may be volatile. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Oscillation. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis. Basis strategy: Appropriate attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: The curve may maintain steepening [8][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report shows the economic data of China and the United States from December 22 - 24, 2025, including China's December LPR and the US Q3 GDP growth rate and the initial jobless claims on December 20 [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Central Enterprises**: General Secretary Xi Jinping made important instructions on the work of central enterprises, emphasizing their responsibilities and missions, focusing on main businesses, promoting innovation, deepening reforms, and preventing risks [12]. - **Commercial Aerospace**: On December 23, 2025, the Long March 12A rocket completed its first flight, but the first - stage rocket recovery was not successful, which provided experience for subsequent technology iteration [12]. - **Consumption**: Many places have launched the application and selection of business entities for the 2026 home appliance and digital product trade - in program. The central government will continue the "national subsidy" for trade - in next year [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Specific data on basis points, inter - period spreads, and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided [7]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Data on trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL are provided [7][8].