日度报告——综合晨报 A 股成交额破 3 万亿为历史次高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-26 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美联储官员 Logan：货币市场可能在季度末面临压力，但 昨天市场较为平淡，在周五大幅上涨后出现回调，其中受降息 预期推动的小盘股调整幅度更大，大盘成长跑赢。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股成交额破 3 万亿为历史次高 综 A 股继续演绎单边上涨行情，白酒板块补涨表明行情已充分被市 场认可。上海市发布的房地产新政力度较大，表明政策依旧重 视地产下行的问题，对于房地产市场释放明显托举信号。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2884 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 宽货币预期上升的背景下，债市的确可以对股市上涨脱敏，但 近期仍然建议保留一丝谨慎，不推荐追高。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 上海：调减住房限购政策 钢价震荡运行，市场整体风险偏好的提升以及煤焦价格的强势 对钢价形成明显带动，但近期现实压力仍有所增加，累库压力 犹存，预计钢价短期延续震荡格局。 有色金属（锌） SMM 七地锌锭库存总量增加 外宏观均偏多运行，对锌价形成支撑，海外库存持续去化带来 高风险和高弹 ...

周度报告-国债期货 股市继续上涨，债市表现偏弱 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货继续下跌 国 债 期 货 本周（08.18-08.22）国债期货继续下跌。周一，央行 Q2 货币政 策报告重提"防空转"，删去买债相关表述，叠加税期走款资 金转紧、股市震荡拉升，国债期货大跌。周二，受央行逆回购 大额净投放以及股市冲高乏力影响，国债期货小幅上涨。周 三，早盘股市震荡偏弱，债市情绪有所修复，但随着午后股市 快速拉升，国债期货转而下跌。周四，早盘股市震荡偏强，国 债期货延续走弱态势。午后市场对货币宽松、监管机构呵护债 市的预期上升，叠加股市小幅走弱，国债期货上涨。周五，周 四尾盘偏强情绪延续至周五中午，但一级市场发行略偏弱，叠 加午后股市加速上涨，国债期货转而下跌。截至 8 月 22 日收 盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货 2512 合约结算价分 别为 102.318、105.370、107.655 和 115.900 元，分别较上周末变 动-0.066、-0.300、-0.570 和-1.310 元。 ★股市继续上涨，债市表现偏弱 展望下周，市场处于数据和政策的空窗期内，资金面和权益市 场表 ...

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.02% at 121.130, the 10-year main contract flat at 109.105, the 5-year main contract up 0.01% at 106.255, and the 2-year main contract up 0.01% at 102.514 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.8485%, and the 10-year government development bond yield also rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.7150% [1] - The 2-year government bond yield decreased by 0.25 basis points to 1.3575%, while the 3-year and 5-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point and 0.55 basis points respectively [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 572 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan [2] - The funding environment appears more relaxed, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 4 basis points to around 1.31%, and 7-day pledged repo rates down over 3 basis points to approximately 1.46% [2] - The issuance scale of government bonds in July is slightly lower, but the maturity of certificates of deposit is significant, and July is a month with high tax payments, which may cause fluctuations in the funding environment [2] Operational Recommendations - With funding rates continuing to decline, bond futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations with most varieties slightly rising, supported by a relaxed funding environment [3] - The short-term strategy suggests accumulating long positions during adjustments, while being cautious of profit-taking near previous highs, and monitoring economic data and funding trends [3] - The curve strategy may continue to focus on steepening opportunities, while the interest rate risk (IRR) is gradually increasing, suggesting a focus on positive spread strategies [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: Bond Market Investors Shift from Bullish Sentiment to Active Buying - Weekly Report on Bond Market Institutional Behavior (Week 3 of June)" [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi [3] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The bond market is experiencing a bullish and active buying trend due to three marginal changes: optimistic market sentiment, increased long - term positions and leverage by institutions, and favorable fundamental data. However, there are also three points to note, including low return odds, risks associated with extending duration, and the need to monitor signals of loose monetary policy [6]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Three Marginal Changes in the Bond Market** - Bond market sentiment is approaching the most optimistic level of the year [14]. - Institutions are not only bullish but also actively buying. Near the end of the half - year, the duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has increased, and funds are buying long - term bonds and increasing their purchases of medium - term notes [14]. - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market is rising and has exceeded last year's level. The liquidity in June is not tight, which has spurred institutions to increase leverage [6]. - **Three Points to Note** - In the environment of extending duration and increasing leverage, the return odds are low. The current yield curve is extremely flat, and the space for long - term bonds to reach historical lows is small [6]. - Extending duration presents both opportunities and risks. Although it is a way for institutions to seek higher returns, historical data shows that the bond market in June is often volatile [7]. - Large banks' preference for short - term bonds has become a trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent signals of loose monetary policy [16]. 1.1 Yield Curve - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields generally declined. The 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y yields declined by 1bp, and the 15Y and 30Y yields declined by 3bp. The 1Y yield dropped to the 8% quantile, while 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y dropped to the 2% quantile [17]. - **China Development Bank Bonds**: Short - term yields rose slightly, while long - term yields declined. The 15Y yield declined by 3bp, and the 30Y yield declined by 4bp. The 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y yields were at different quantiles [18]. 1.2 Term Spreads - **Treasury Bonds**: The spreads showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads widening and long - term spreads narrowing. The 1Y - DR001 spread increased by 1bp, and the 1Y - DR007 spread's inversion deepened by about 1bp [19]. - **China Development Bank Bonds**: The spread inversion eased, and long - term spreads narrowed. The 1Y - DR007 spread's inversion eased by 3bp [20]. 2. Bond Market Leverage and Liquidity - **Leverage Ratio**: It rose to 107.51%. From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated upward. As of June 13, it increased by 0.37 percentage points compared to last Friday [23]. - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily turnover this week was 7.9 trillion yuan, with an average overnight proportion of 89.39%. The average daily turnover increased compared to last week [30]. - **Liquidity**: Bank lending showed a fluctuating upward trend. DR007 fluctuated downward, while R007 fluctuated upward [35]. 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: It rose to 2.78 years (ex - leverage) and 2.96 years (including leverage). As of June 13, the ex - leverage median duration increased by 0.02 years compared to last Friday [45]. - **Duration by Bond Fund Type**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) remained at 3.67 years, while the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) rose to 2.73 years [48]. 4. Comparison of Generic Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: The overall inversion has eased. The inversion of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y has decreased by 4bp, 7bp, 11bp, 11bp, 10bp, 9bp, and 4bp respectively [52]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: It has generally widened. The spreads between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds for 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y have widened, while the 15Y spread changed slightly and the 30Y spread narrowed [53]. 5. Changes in Bond Lending Balances - On June 13, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds, the second - most active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds showed an upward trend, while the concentration of the second - most active 10Y treasury bonds declined. All institutions showed an upward trend [58].

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) has shown a positive trend with a 1.04% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, driven by expectations of monetary easing from the central bank and potential significant financial policies to be announced at the upcoming Lujiazui Forum [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of June 11, 2025, the gold ETF fund has achieved a net value increase of 92.20% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds and fourth out of 21 in the precious metals category [1] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and a maximum cumulative gain of 16.53% [1] - The fund's performance metrics include an average monthly return of 3.27% and an annual profit percentage of 80.00%, with a historical three-year holding profit probability of 100.00% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold ETF fund has seen a financing buy-in amount of 32.70 million yuan and a financing balance of 3.731 billion yuan, indicating ongoing leverage positioning in the market [1] - The fund's year-to-date relative drawdown against the benchmark is 0.35% as of June 11, 2025, suggesting a relatively stable performance compared to market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Fees and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is set at 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10%, which are competitive rates in the market [4] - The tracking error for the fund over the past month is 0.002%, indicating a high level of tracking precision compared to similar funds [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week (20250602 - 20250608), US stocks, the Hang Seng Index, and the FTSE China A50 Index all rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.18%, 1.50%, and 1.17% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index rose 3.76%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index climbed 2.16%, and the FTSE China A50 Index went up 0.58% [2]. - Most A - share sectors rose, with technology and non - ferrous metals leading the gains. The wind all - A index increased by 1.61%, and 23 out of 30 CITIC industries advanced, with communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and computers having weekly gains of over 3% [3]. - Interest - rate bond prices rose, and the yield curve steepened in a bullish manner. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.18% compared to May 30, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond dropped 1.65 BP to 1.6547% [4]. - The capital price declined, and the central bank advanced the placement of outright reverse repurchases. The R007 and DR007 decreased by 18.88 BP and 10.07 BP respectively, and the central bank net - injected 3283 billion yuan this week [5]. - The bond market leverage level slightly increased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume rose from 6.50 trillion yuan on May 30, 2025, to 6.99 trillion yuan on June 6, 2025 [6]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 10 BP to 4.51% as of June 6, 2025 [7]. - The US dollar depreciated, and the gold price rose. The US dollar index fell 0.24%, and the prices of London gold spot, COMEX gold futures, Shanghai gold spot, and futures all increased [8]. - The US May non - farm payrolls increased less year - on - year but exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased. The probability dropped from 74.3% to 59.3% as of June 7 [9]. - Looking ahead, the domestic broad - money expectation and external uncertainties still exist. The equity and bond markets may benefit from the broad - money expectation, but the equity market may be negatively affected by external tariff uncertainties, while gold is expected to gain [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content Stock Market - US stocks: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.18%, 1.50%, and 1.17% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index increased by 3.76% [2]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose 2.16% [2]. - A - shares: The wind all - A index rose 1.61%. Most sectors advanced, with communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and computers having significant gains [3]. Bond Market - Domestic bonds: Interest - rate bond prices rose, the yield curve steepened bullishly, the capital price declined, the central bank net - injected funds, and the bond market leverage level slightly increased [4][5][6]. - US bonds: US Treasury yields mostly increased, and the curve became steeper [7]. Currency and Commodity Markets - Currency: The US dollar depreciated against most major currencies, including the euro, pound, and the Chinese yuan [8]. - Commodity: Gold prices rose both internationally and domestically [8]. Macroeconomic Data - US non - farm payrolls: In May, the US added 13.9 million non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations but increasing less year - on - year. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased [9].

Group 1 - The central bank's announcement of a large-scale reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of June is aimed at alleviating market concerns regarding the upcoming maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) [1][2][3] - The operation involves a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement with a term of three months, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the banking system [2][4] - Analysts believe that the central bank's proactive measures are intended to stabilize market confidence and prevent liquidity tightening, especially with significant CD maturities approaching [3][6] Group 2 - The weighted average issuance rate of interbank CDs has shown initial signs of decline, with a drop from 1.82% to 1.80% recently, indicating a potential easing of market pressures [3][4] - The upcoming week is critical for observing the performance of the interbank CD market, as over 1.2 trillion yuan in CDs will mature, marking the largest single-week maturity volume in history [7] - Despite the pressures from maturing CDs, factors such as increased fiscal spending and seasonal inflows of wealth management funds may help mitigate the outflow of bank deposits [7][8] Group 3 - The central bank's liquidity management strategy may involve increasing medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations to offset the impact of maturing reverse repos, indicating a flexible approach to maintaining liquidity [8] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations due to various factors, including tax payment periods and the maturity of approximately 930 billion yuan in reverse repos [8] - The central bank's clear stance on liquidity support suggests that the funding environment is likely to remain stable despite the anticipated disturbances [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "TS Contract: Can It Still Be Used for Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage? - Interest Rate Weekly (Week 3 of May)" [1] - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi, with a practice certificate number of S0010522030002 [2] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan, with a practice certificate number of S0010123060036 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 3, the bond market's maturity yields have first decreased and then increased. Among treasury bond futures, the TL contract has been strong, while the TS/TF/T main contracts have declined [2]. - The weak performance of the TS contract is due to the previous large premium and the change in the expectation of loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy changed significantly in Q1, and there are differences in the short - term expectation of loose monetary policy after the double - cut in May. The yield curve has flattened instead of steepening as expected [3]. - As of May 16, the basis of the TS main contract is - 0.07 yuan, and the IRR is 1.79%. The basis has significantly converged, and the IRR is close to the capital interest rate, so the cost - effectiveness of cash - and - carry arbitrage is insufficient [4]. - In the short term, the TS contract may still be in a premium state because of the continuous negative carry. The inversion between R001 and the 2 - year treasury bond maturity yield has decreased from about 60bp at the beginning of the year to 15bp on May 16, and the negative carry phenomenon of some varieties will continue [4]. - Considering that the tight capital situation in Q1 will not repeat, the short - term interest rate has a ceiling and the probability of a sharp decline is low. With the significant convergence of the basis, one can consider participating in the possible rise of the TS contract [4]. Group 4: Analyst and Research Assistant Introduction - Analyst Yan Ziqi is the assistant director of the Research Institute of Hua'an Securities and the chief analyst of fixed income. He has 8 years of experience in sell - side fixed income and equity research, and has won the second place in the 2024 Wind Gold Analyst and the best analyst in the 2023 Choice fixed income industry [12]. - Research Assistant Hong Ziyan is a master of financial engineering from the University of Southern California, covering macro - interest rates, institutional behavior, and treasury bond futures research [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the bond market may maintain a volatile state, but considering the high necessity of loose monetary policy, the general trend of interest rate decline is relatively certain, and it is recommended to allocate when the price is high [4]. - Currently, policies remain firm, focusing on "stabilizing employment," and are expected to have limited impact on the bond market. In terms of the fundamentals, it is expected that it will be difficult to reach an agreement in the Sino - US tariff negotiations in the short term, and the economy is expected to face pressure in the second quarter under the tariff impact. However, the previous rapid decline in interest rates has already priced in part of the weakening fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Reasons for the Current Bond Market Volatility - Under the external tariff shock, the bond market reacted quickly, pricing in the expectation of weakening fundamentals and loose monetary policy. From April 2 to April 7, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate dropped 15.7BP in two trading days, approaching the previous low in early January 2025, and further decline was restricted [11]. - From the perspective of bank asset comparison, the current bond market position implies a rate cut of about 20BP. Since the beginning of the year, the expectation of a rate cut has repeatedly failed to materialize. The timing of the rate cut is still uncertain, and the rhythm of loose monetary policy is unclear, which also hinders the decline of interest rates [11]. 3.2 Review of Bond Market Volatility since 2022 - **February - May 2022**: The bond market was in a dilemma between the expectations of broad credit and broad money. Fiscal policy efforts were limited and liquidity was loose, which pushed interest rates to break through downward [4][12]. - **February - March 2023**: The game between post - epidemic economic recovery and weak policy expectations led to bond market volatility. After April, the weakening of fundamental recovery momentum drove interest rates down [4][13]. - **May - mid - July 2024**: Central bank regulatory pressure emerged, causing interest rate fluctuations, which were later broken by the rate cut at the end of July [4][15]. - **January - mid - February 2025**: After the market over - anticipated the rate cut, there was a volatile situation, which was adjusted with the correction of the broad - money expectation [4][19]. 3.3 Key Points to Break the Bond Market Stalemate - **Broad - money expectation**: When the bond market is in a volatile state, the attitude of monetary policy is often unclear. As the orientation of monetary policy becomes clear, interest rates will break through significantly. Trigger points include unexpected reserve requirement ratio cuts, changes in the central bank's public statements, and changes in central bank liquidity injection and money - market interest rates [24]. - **Fiscal policy intensity**: Fiscal policy is an important variable affecting the bond market, especially when the economy is weak. When fiscal intensity exceeds expectations, it will drive interest rates up, and vice versa [24]. - **Fundamental operation**: Although the economy is continuous and difficult to change significantly in the short term, when affected by internal and external shocks, the direction of fundamental operation may change, breaking the bond market's volatile stalemate [24].