Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance shows a sequential improvement, indicating a bottoming out of its fundamentals [8] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million yuan, down 34.1% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to continue improving in Q4 2025 and into 2026, driven by new product launches for large B clients, expansion into emerging channels, and enhanced supply chain efficiency [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 1,901 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.69%, while 2024A is projected at 1,868 million yuan, a decline of 1.71% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is estimated at 134.27 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.43%, but is expected to decline to 83.69 million yuan in 2024A, a drop of 37.67% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 0.81 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 36.66 [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.6%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]

事件评论 展望：2025 年基本面筑底，期待2026 年起的基本面弹性回升+估值改善。短期，新客高增、老客相对 稳定下预计2025 年仍可维持较优增速。中期，老客调整企稳叠加（次)新客户持续放量有望驱动新一轮 成长，积极产能扩张保障顺势时业绩弹性向上，行业格局优化叠加利润率恢复下，估值有望提升。预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润为40.3、46.7、54.8亿元，同比+5%、+16%、+17%，现价对应PE 为16、14、 12X，按70%分红比例下，2025 年对应股息率为4.3%，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 1、海外宏观经济波动； 2、品牌库存去化不及预期； 3、产能投放进度不及预期。 收入：销量延续增长，产品结构调整下单价提升。2025Q1 人民币口径，公司营收为53.5亿元（人民币 同比+12.3%/美元同比+11.2%），次新&新客归母净利润7.6 亿元（人民币同比-3.2%/美元同比-4.2%）， 归母净利率同比-2.3pct/环比-1.1pct 至14.2%。量价拆分来看，Q1 销量0.49 亿双（同比+8.2%），新（次 新）客户放量下销量延续增长，部分老客户预计承压；单价约108.4 ...