截至2026年2月2日，美伊紧张关系进入新高潮：伊朗最高领袖警告"任何军事行动将被视为战争开端"， 美国同步增派航母打击群至波斯湾;伊朗核设施维修完成并拒绝国际原子能机构核查，显示其战略防御 姿态升级。此类不可逆的地缘冲突风险，持续强化黄金作为"超主权避险资产"的不可替代性。 2025年全球央行净购金达863吨，创历史高位，2026年初增持趋势延续。在美元债务规模突破38万亿美 元、美债实际收益率波动加剧的背景下，各国加速推进储备资产多元化，黄金因其"无信用风险、无国 界、可跨境清算"的特性，成为外汇储备重构的核心选项。中国、印度、波兰等国持续增持，形成对金 价的长期下行缓冲机制。 【技术分析】 从日线图形看，黄金在快速冲高刷新历史纪录后显著回落，已进入技术性修正阶段。前期涨幅过大令短 周期均线明显偏离中长期均线，此番回调有助于修复过热的技术结构。 价格虽跌破短期均线支撑，但仍处在中期上升通道内，整体趋势未被破坏。动能指标自极端高位回落， 显示多头力量明显降温，但尚未进入超卖区。关键位方面，4600美元附近为重要技术支撑，若有效守 住，金价或以高位震荡完成整理;上方须重新站上4900美元，方可重启趋势性上行。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes due to high interest rates, fiscal sustainability debates, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a reassessment of "safe assets" like U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Global official gold reserves surpassed the value of foreign-held U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in Q2 2025, with gold spot prices increasing nearly 70% [1] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92% by Q3 2025, marking a 30-year low and indicating a search for a new balance in the global reserve system [2] Group 2: Euro's Position - The euro's share in global foreign exchange reserves reached 20.33% by Q3 2025, maintaining its position as the second-largest reserve currency [3] - The euro's strength against the dollar increased by 13% in 2025, closing the year at 1.16-1.17, despite underlying structural issues within the eurozone [8] - The European Central Bank's monetary policy has diverged from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the ECB cutting rates multiple times while the Fed also lowered rates, contributing to the euro's appreciation [10] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was downgraded to 1.3%, with Germany's growth expected to be only 0.3%, highlighting economic vulnerabilities [11] - Significant fiscal measures, such as Germany's €500 billion infrastructure fund and the EU's €800 billion rearmament plan, are seen as crucial for the euro's long-term valuation, though their short-term effectiveness is questioned [11] - Predictions for the euro's exchange rate against the dollar in 2026 vary, with estimates ranging from 1.10 to 1.25, influenced by interest rate differentials and economic recovery [12][13]