当前市场情绪显著偏向欧元多头，机构普遍看好欧元后续表现。高盛预计未来12个月欧元兑美元将升至 1.25，摩根大通则预测到2026年3月该汇率将达到1.22。机构看涨逻辑主要集中在三点：一是美欧货币政 策分化格局短期内难以逆转，利差收窄将持续支撑欧元；二是美元估值仍处相对高位，后续贬值空间充 足；三是欧元区经济韧性超预期，欧洲央行最新预测将2025年经济增速上调至1.2%，为欧元提供基本 面支撑。不过也存在潜在风险，德国法兰克福金融与管理学院教授霍斯特·勒歇尔提醒，欧元过度走强 可能削弱欧元区出口竞争力，对经济增长形成压力。 从技术面来看，欧元兑美元近期站稳1.17关口后逐步攀升，汇价依托短期均线上行，呈现明确的多头趋 势；下方关键支撑集中在1.1750-1.1780区间，若能守住该区间，上行趋势有望延续；上方阻力重点关注 1.1850关口，突破后可能进一步向1.19区间迈进。技术指标方面，RSI指标维持在中性偏多区间， MACD红柱持续放大，显示多头动能强劲。结合基本面与技术面分析，短期美欧政策分化仍是汇率核心 驱动因素，欧元兑美元大概率维持震荡上行格局；中长期而言，若欧元区经济复苏持续，美联储降息空 间收窄 ...

来源：滚动播报 （来源：工人日报） 欧洲中央银行近日召开货币政策会议，决定维持欧元区三大关键利率不变，符合市场预期。市场人士认 为，在地缘政治紧张、能源价格波动以及全球贸易环境变化等多重不确定因素交织的背景下，欧洲经济 和通胀前景仍面临较大不确定性。与此同时，美欧货币政策愈显分化推动美欧利差扩大，或将削弱欧元 区出口，并可能通过贸易活动和投资流动，对全球经济产生连锁反应。 欧洲央行当天发布新闻公报说，欧元区存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际借贷利率分别维持在 2.00%、2.15%、2.40%不变。 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，尽管近期贸易紧张局势有所缓解，但持续动荡的国际环境可能扰乱供应链、 抑制出口，进而拖累消费与投资，通胀前景仍存在较大不确定性。全球金融市场情绪恶化可能引发融资 条件收紧，加剧风险规避及增长疲软风险。 关于最近颇受关注的人工智能投资，拉加德说，人工智能在提升生产率和推动经济转型方面具有重要潜 力，可能为欧洲经济注入新的增长动能。但目前就人工智能对通胀和经济增长的影响作出明确判断为时 尚早，尤其在技术应用速度和劳动力市场适应方面。 欧洲央行预测显示，欧元区整体通胀率2026年为1.9%，202 ...

新华社法兰克福12月19日电 综述｜欧洲央行"按兵不动" 美欧货币政策愈显分化 新华社记者马悦然 尹亮 欧洲中央银行18日召开货币政策会议，决定维持欧元区三大关键利率不变，符合市场预期。市场人士认 为，在地缘政治紧张、能源价格波动以及全球贸易环境变化等多重不确定因素交织的背景下，欧洲经济 和通胀前景仍面临较大不确定性。与此同时，美欧货币政策愈显分化推动美欧利差扩大，或将削弱欧元 区出口，并可能通过贸易活动和投资流动，对全球经济产生连锁反应。 荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管卡斯滕·布热斯基分析认为，欧洲央行目前采取中性政策立场。预测显示通 胀未来一段时间略低于目标，经济增长则围绕潜在水平运行，在此情况下央行没有必要急于调整货币政 策。不过，通胀低于中期目标并不意味着政策风险消失。 德国法兰克福金融与管理学院教授霍斯特·勒歇尔在接受记者采访时表示，欧洲经济的真正风险在于能 否控制通胀。"当前欧洲尤其是德国面临的经济困境，并非主要源于需求不足，而是更多来自供给侧结 构性约束，包括生产率增长放缓、监管负担偏重以及能源成本高企等问题。这些问题难以通过单纯降低 利率加以解决。" 当前，美欧货币政策走向的差异正逐步显现。今年年内 ...

新华社法兰克福12月19日电 综述｜欧洲央行"按兵不动" 美欧货币政策愈显分化 新华社记者马悦然 尹亮 欧洲中央银行18日召开货币政策会议，决定维持欧元区三大关键利率不变，符合市场预期。市场人士认 为，在地缘政治紧张、能源价格波动以及全球贸易环境变化等多重不确定因素交织的背景下，欧洲经济 和通胀前景仍面临较大不确定性。与此同时，美欧货币政策愈显分化推动美欧利差扩大，或将削弱欧元 区出口，并可能通过贸易活动和投资流动，对全球经济产生连锁反应。 欧洲央行当天发布新闻公报说，欧元区存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际借贷利率分别维持在 2.00%、2.15%、2.40%不变。 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，尽管近期贸易紧张局势有所缓解，但持续动荡的国际环境可能扰乱供应链、 抑制出口，进而拖累消费与投资，通胀前景仍存在较大不确定性。全球金融市场情绪恶化可能引发融资 条件收紧，加剧风险规避及增长疲软风险。 当天发布的宏观经济预测报告显示，2025年欧元区经济预计增长1.4%，高于此前预期；2026年预计增 长1.2%；2027年和2028年增长预期均为1.4%。拉加德认为，未来几年内需将成为增长的主要动力。消 费、企业投资以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on the Euro against the US Dollar, highlighting the divergence in monetary policies between the US and the Eurozone as a key driver for the Euro's strength [1][2]. Group 1: US Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year on December 12, 2025, with a 9:3 voting split indicating a heated debate between hawkish and dovish members [1]. - Despite the rate cut being accompanied by a "hawkish signal," the market anticipates continued easing in 2026, leading to a short-term decline in the US Dollar index [1]. - The Fed's decision to restart the purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, interpreted as implicit easing, has further pressured the Dollar [1]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Resilience - The European Union forecasts a GDP growth of 1.3% for the Eurozone in 2025, with a notable acceleration in the third quarter and strong performances from economies like France and Spain [1]. - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone remains at historically low levels, and consumer recovery is supporting the economic fundamentals [1]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates steady for three consecutive meetings, with President Lagarde stating that current rates are "appropriate," indicating a likelihood of no changes in December [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Export Pressures - The Euro's ascent faces dual constraints: inflation risks, with the Eurozone's core inflation at 2.4% in November, and potential downward pressure on inflation from a stronger Euro [2]. - Export pressures are heightened as the Euro is at a trade-weighted high, complicating the situation for German companies and increasing external uncertainties due to global trade barriers and rising tariffs on exports to the US [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The Euro has stabilized above the 60-day moving average, forming an upward trend line, but is approaching a dense trading zone between 1.16 and 1.17, leading to increased market caution and reduced trading volume [2]. - A breakout above this range could confirm an upward trend, while failure to do so may trigger profit-taking and test the lower bounds of the trading range [2]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the ECB's year-end meeting on December 18, where economic and inflation forecasts will be discussed, and the Federal Reserve's officials' speeches and US economic data releases to clarify the pace of Dollar easing [2]. - Predictions suggest that the Fed's rate cuts will slow in 2026 while the ECB is likely to maintain its current stance, which could lead to continued strength in the Euro against the Dollar by year-end [2].

Group 1 - The Swedish Nordea Bank suggests that the market's expectation of over 100 basis points rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026 may be overly aggressive, considering inflation risks [1] - The French bank Société Générale indicates that the yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds may stabilize around 80 basis points, but political risks could widen this spread if the French government collapses [1] - Citigroup believes that the U.S. government shutdown could mask real risks and delay market reactions, while the outlook for the euro against the dollar may improve significantly once French political turmoil subsides and U.S. interest rates face downward pressure [3] Group 2 - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio warns that the rising U.S. debt relative to income will severely squeeze government and other sectors' spending capabilities, posing a threat to the global monetary order [2] - Analysts from Pantheon Macroeconomics predict that Germany may have entered a technical recession due to trade uncertainties and declining industrial production, with preliminary GDP data expected by the end of the month [3] - Analysts from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) state that the Federal Reserve's resumption of rate cuts in September marks a new phase of dollar easing, prioritizing growth over inflation control due to rising employment risks [3]