Core Insights - The article emphasizes that external risks outweigh internal risks, and macro risks are more significant than micro risks in the current economic and financial landscape [2][3] - Commercial banks are expected to face ongoing challenges from external uncertainties, necessitating a unified strategic vision to balance business development and risk management [2][3] Group 1: Limitations in Management Framework and Tools - The current risk management framework, established by the 2016 CBRC guidelines, categorizes external uncertainties into various risk types but fails to capture their structural characteristics and cross-sectional risk factors [4] - Existing management tools primarily rely on stress testing and extreme scenario analysis, which do not adequately address the systemic impacts of external uncertainties on commercial banks [4] Group 2: Limitations in Response Mechanisms and Work Methods - Two main response mechanisms exist: one initiated by governance and management layers focusing on affected departments, and another relying on existing departmental responsibilities, both of which lack comprehensive coordination and strategic oversight [5] - These mechanisms often result in fragmented solutions that do not adequately address the overarching challenges posed by external risks [5] Group 3: Deviations in Risk Management Philosophy and Team Configuration - Domestic commercial banks exhibit a gap in risk management philosophy compared to international peers, often viewing risk management as opposed to business development, which undermines overall risk resilience [6] - The current environment of heightened regulation and economic downturn has led to a risk-averse culture, limiting proactive decision-making and potentially exacerbating competitive disadvantages [6] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact - Geopolitical risks, driven by events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade tensions, significantly affect traditional risk types, including credit, market, operational, liquidity, and funding risks [7][9] - Research from institutions like the ECB and IMF highlights the pathways through which geopolitical risks influence asset prices and the broader financial environment [9] Group 5: Recommendations for Improvement - It is recommended to unify the understanding of information importance between business and risk functions to support macro and micro decision-making [11] - Adopting iterative work methods can address structural issues in management systems, enhancing information collaboration and feedback mechanisms [12] - Promoting the organic integration of strategic and risk management processes is crucial for ensuring that banks maintain a correct strategic direction amidst external challenges [16]

Group 1: Economic Environment and Challenges - The current international situation is evolving significantly, with increasing competition in technology and industry, leading to heightened external uncertainties [2] - Trade protectionism is on the rise, increasing export pressures on China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. such as machinery and electronics [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Risks - There are two major risks for China's manufacturing sector: decoupling and technology blockade, as developed countries attempt to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [4] - Developed countries are implementing strategies to attract low-end manufacturing away from China, while simultaneously restricting high-end manufacturing technology from leaving [4] Group 3: Financial Market Volatility - Global financial markets are experiencing increased volatility due to economic and political uncertainties, which may exacerbate capital flow fluctuations in China [5] - Financial sanctions and restrictions on capital markets are making it more difficult for Chinese companies to secure financing [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Response - A more proactive fiscal policy is deemed essential for enhancing the certainty of high-quality economic development in response to external shocks [6] - The Chinese government has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.5%, providing significant room for fiscal policy expansion compared to G20 and G7 countries [8] Group 5: Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The focus of fiscal policy should be on enhancing social welfare, promoting consumption, and increasing investment efficiency to stimulate domestic demand [9] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for effective macroeconomic management, ensuring that government investments lead to increased social investments [11]