从当前经济金融形势来看，"外部风险大于内部风险，宏观风险大于微观风险"。在全球经济中枢下移和大国博弈背景下，商业银行在未来很长一段时期 内，将持续面临外部不确定性的挑战。但关税战等外部环境因素，综合影响银行的经营环境、业务、客户、资产等多方面，难以被归为某一风险类别或被 全面风险管理框架与工具充分识别、评估，现有工作机制亦难以支撑产生系统性、有机协调的应对方案。商业银行需在统一的战略视野下平衡业务发展与 风险，并促进风险管理与战略管理工具与流程的有机整合。 *本文章收录于即将发布的《2025年中国银行业调查报告》中。 回顾COSO和ISO等组织对于风险的定义变迁，风险定义从最初主要关注负面因素，逐渐演变为同时关注负面及正面因素，并突出其不确定性特征。实务 中风险管理通常更关注负面因素，缺乏正面因素的识别。而威胁与机会作为风险的一体两面，机会亦蕴含着对于威胁的对冲策略以及新的发展机遇，应作 为同一对象综合考虑。 从商业银行面临的经济金融环境来看，早在2020年4月，国务院金融稳定发展委员会就做出了中国"外部风险大于内部风险，宏观风险大于微观风险"的论 断。近期外部不确定性对中国金融市场的影响愈发显著，其影响具有 ...

Group 1: Economic Environment and Challenges - The current international situation is evolving significantly, with increasing competition in technology and industry, leading to heightened external uncertainties [2] - Trade protectionism is on the rise, increasing export pressures on China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. such as machinery and electronics [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Risks - There are two major risks for China's manufacturing sector: decoupling and technology blockade, as developed countries attempt to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [4] - Developed countries are implementing strategies to attract low-end manufacturing away from China, while simultaneously restricting high-end manufacturing technology from leaving [4] Group 3: Financial Market Volatility - Global financial markets are experiencing increased volatility due to economic and political uncertainties, which may exacerbate capital flow fluctuations in China [5] - Financial sanctions and restrictions on capital markets are making it more difficult for Chinese companies to secure financing [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Response - A more proactive fiscal policy is deemed essential for enhancing the certainty of high-quality economic development in response to external shocks [6] - The Chinese government has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.5%, providing significant room for fiscal policy expansion compared to G20 and G7 countries [8] Group 5: Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The focus of fiscal policy should be on enhancing social welfare, promoting consumption, and increasing investment efficiency to stimulate domestic demand [9] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for effective macroeconomic management, ensuring that government investments lead to increased social investments [11]