Report Information - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [1] - Author: Zhang Pengzhen [1] - Author ID: Z0003135 [1] Futures Closing Prices - 01 Contract: Opened at 1677, closed at 1668, down 0.54% [2] - 05 Contract: Opened at 1743, closed at 1727, up 0.93% [2] - 09 Contract: Opened at 1757, closed at 1736, up 1.21% [2] - Methanol Main Contract: Opened at 2135, closed at 2114, up 0.99% [2] Futures Contract Spreads - 01 Contract - 05 Contract: Spread was -66 on November 28, down 11.86% from November 27 [2] - 05 Contract - 09 Contract: Spread was -14 on November 28, down 55.56% from November 27 [2] - 09 Contract - 01 Contract: Spread was 80 on November 28, up 17.65% from November 27 [2] - UR - MA Main Contract: Spread was -378 on both November 28 and 27 [2] Main Positions - Long Top 20: 127,004 on November 28, down 0.39% from November 27 [2] - Short Top 20: 153,617 on November 28, down 2.63% from November 27 [2] - Long - Short Ratio: 0.85 on November 28, up from 0.83 on November 27 [2] - Unilateral Trading Volume: 146,936 on November 28, up 9.26% from November 27 [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts: 7,587 on November 28, up 5.65% from November 27 [2] Upstream Raw Materials - Anthracite Small Pieces (Shecheng): Price was 930 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Steam Coal Pit - Mouth (Ejin Horo Banner): Price was 620 yuan/ton on November 28, down from 630 yuan/ton on November 27 [2] - Steam Coal Port (Qinhuangdao): Price was 821 yuan/ton on November 28, down 0.12% from November 27 [2] - Synthetic Ammonia (Shandong): Price was 2,446 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.62% from November 27 [2] Spot Market Prices - Shandong (Small Granules): Price was 1,670 yuan/ton on November 28, up 1.21% from November 27 [2] - Shanxi (Small Granules): Price was 1,530 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.66% from November 27 [2] - Henan (Small Granules): Price was 1,660 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.61% from November 27 [2] - Northeast Region (Small Granules): Price was 1,720 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong (Small Granules): Price was 1,770 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.57% from November 27 [2] - Guangxi (Small Granules): Price was 1,810 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.56% from November 27 [2] - FOB China: Small Granules: Price was 400 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - US Gulf FOB: Large Granules: Price was 375 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Cross - Regional Spreads - Shandong - Henan: Spread was 10 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong - Henan: Spread was 110 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong - Shanxi: Spread was 240 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Domestic - Overseas Spread: Spread was 26 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Basis - Shandong Basis: Basis was -7 on November 28, up 61.11% from November 27 [2] - Shanxi Basis: Basis was -147 on November 28, up 0.68% from November 27 [2] - Henan Basis: Basis was -17 on November 28, up 5.56% from November 27 [2] - Guangdong Basis: Basis was 92 on November 28, up 1.09% from November 27 [2] Downstream Products - Melamine (Shandong): Price was 5,190 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer 45%S (Henan): Price was 3,000 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer 45%CL (Henan): Price was 2,580 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer - Urea Ratio: Ratio was 1.68 on November 28, down from 1.69 on November 27 [2] Fertilizer Market - Ammonium Sulfate (Shandong): Price was 1,070 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.23% from November 27 [2] - Sulfur (Zhenjiang): Price was 3,960 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Potassium Hydride (Jinghai): Price was 3,150 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Monoammonium Phosphate (Jiangsu): Price was 3,750 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Monoammonium Phosphate (Baltic Sea): Price was 605 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Diammonium Phosphate (Jiangsu): Price was 4,250 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Diammonium Phosphate (US Gulf Region): Price was 647.7 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Supply - Demand Situation Daily Data - Domestic Urea Daily Output: 20.34 million tons on November 28, up 1.19% from November 27 [2] - Coal - Based Urea Daily Output: 16.40 million tons on November 28, up 1.11% from November 27 [2] - Gas - Based Urea Daily Output: 3.94 million tons on November 28, up 1.55% from November 27 [2] - Small - Granule Urea Daily Output: 16.59 million tons on November 28, up 1.47% from November 27 [2] - Urea Manufacturer Operating Rate: 84.10% on November 28, up 1.19% from November 27 [2] Weekly Data - Domestic Urea Weekly Output: 141.70 million tons on November 28, down 0.24% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Plant Maintenance Loss (Weekly): 20.94 million tons on November 28, up 12.94% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea In - Plant Inventory (Weekly): 136.39 million tons on November 28, down 5.10% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Port Inventory (Weekly): 10.00 million tons on both November 28 and November 21 [2] - Domestic Northeast Urea Inflow (Weekly): 16.50 million tons on November 28, down 34.00% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Producer Order Days (Weekly): 6.65 days on November 28, down 6.60% from November 21 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of Trump's announcement regarding tariffs on global markets, leading to significant declines in stock and cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum [1][2][3] - The fear and uncertainty in the market are primarily driven by the potential for repeated adjustments to tariffs, which could exacerbate perceived risks [2][3] - Major cryptocurrency holders, referred to as "whales," are facing significant liquidation risks due to recent price drops, with specific addresses holding large amounts of ETH nearing their liquidation prices [3][4] Group 2 - The current market sentiment indicates a strong inclination towards risk aversion, with many investors opting to exit positions ahead of the tariff announcements [2][8] - There is a notable disparity in short positions between Bitcoin and Ethereum, with more investors shorting Bitcoin, suggesting a complex market dynamic [4][9] - The articles suggest that the market is in a unique state, with historical patterns not necessarily applicable to the current situation, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning and risk management [11][12]