2025年12月液化气期货主力合约收盘价大幅走低，本月收盘均价在4188元/吨，环比上月4308元/吨，大 跌120元/吨或2.79%。本月成本端走低且国内外供应端相对充裕共同牵制期货价格大幅走低。 基差方面，本月华南期现基差大幅走强至405元/吨，环比上月扩大239元/吨。本月期货价格大幅下跌是 导致基差走强的主要因素。本月仓单数量呈增长态势，也给盘面有一定的压制。 持仓量分所，本月主力合约日均成交量19245手，大幅减少19245手，12月日均持仓量为57544手，环比 减少20880手。液化气期货行情弱势运行，交易活跃度下降。 后市预测：1月份国际原油价格将弱势震荡，成本端驱动性不足。化工深加工利润仍处于大面积亏损， 料对需求形成利空压制，国际市场供应相对宽裕，预计1月期货价格将弱势运行。(金联创液化气分析 师：石琳琳) 12月份，国际原油价格呈现先抑后扬走势，月度均价环比下跌。市场关注美乌谈判以及乌克兰和平协议 前景，地缘局势风险溢价消退以及投资者对俄油供应前景持观望态度导致油价承压。据金联创监测：本 月WTI均价为57.87美元/桶，环比下跌1.61美元/桶，或-2.70%；布伦特月均价为61.64 ...

Report Information - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [1] - Author: Zhang Pengzhen [1] - Author ID: Z0003135 [1] Futures Closing Prices - 01 Contract: Opened at 1677, closed at 1668, down 0.54% [2] - 05 Contract: Opened at 1743, closed at 1727, up 0.93% [2] - 09 Contract: Opened at 1757, closed at 1736, up 1.21% [2] - Methanol Main Contract: Opened at 2135, closed at 2114, up 0.99% [2] Futures Contract Spreads - 01 Contract - 05 Contract: Spread was -66 on November 28, down 11.86% from November 27 [2] - 05 Contract - 09 Contract: Spread was -14 on November 28, down 55.56% from November 27 [2] - 09 Contract - 01 Contract: Spread was 80 on November 28, up 17.65% from November 27 [2] - UR - MA Main Contract: Spread was -378 on both November 28 and 27 [2] Main Positions - Long Top 20: 127,004 on November 28, down 0.39% from November 27 [2] - Short Top 20: 153,617 on November 28, down 2.63% from November 27 [2] - Long - Short Ratio: 0.85 on November 28, up from 0.83 on November 27 [2] - Unilateral Trading Volume: 146,936 on November 28, up 9.26% from November 27 [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts: 7,587 on November 28, up 5.65% from November 27 [2] Upstream Raw Materials - Anthracite Small Pieces (Shecheng): Price was 930 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Steam Coal Pit - Mouth (Ejin Horo Banner): Price was 620 yuan/ton on November 28, down from 630 yuan/ton on November 27 [2] - Steam Coal Port (Qinhuangdao): Price was 821 yuan/ton on November 28, down 0.12% from November 27 [2] - Synthetic Ammonia (Shandong): Price was 2,446 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.62% from November 27 [2] Spot Market Prices - Shandong (Small Granules): Price was 1,670 yuan/ton on November 28, up 1.21% from November 27 [2] - Shanxi (Small Granules): Price was 1,530 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.66% from November 27 [2] - Henan (Small Granules): Price was 1,660 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.61% from November 27 [2] - Northeast Region (Small Granules): Price was 1,720 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong (Small Granules): Price was 1,770 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.57% from November 27 [2] - Guangxi (Small Granules): Price was 1,810 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.56% from November 27 [2] - FOB China: Small Granules: Price was 400 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - US Gulf FOB: Large Granules: Price was 375 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Cross - Regional Spreads - Shandong - Henan: Spread was 10 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong - Henan: Spread was 110 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong - Shanxi: Spread was 240 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Domestic - Overseas Spread: Spread was 26 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Basis - Shandong Basis: Basis was -7 on November 28, up 61.11% from November 27 [2] - Shanxi Basis: Basis was -147 on November 28, up 0.68% from November 27 [2] - Henan Basis: Basis was -17 on November 28, up 5.56% from November 27 [2] - Guangdong Basis: Basis was 92 on November 28, up 1.09% from November 27 [2] Downstream Products - Melamine (Shandong): Price was 5,190 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer 45%S (Henan): Price was 3,000 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer 45%CL (Henan): Price was 2,580 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer - Urea Ratio: Ratio was 1.68 on November 28, down from 1.69 on November 27 [2] Fertilizer Market - Ammonium Sulfate (Shandong): Price was 1,070 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.23% from November 27 [2] - Sulfur (Zhenjiang): Price was 3,960 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Potassium Hydride (Jinghai): Price was 3,150 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Monoammonium Phosphate (Jiangsu): Price was 3,750 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Monoammonium Phosphate (Baltic Sea): Price was 605 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Diammonium Phosphate (Jiangsu): Price was 4,250 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Diammonium Phosphate (US Gulf Region): Price was 647.7 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Supply - Demand Situation Daily Data - Domestic Urea Daily Output: 20.34 million tons on November 28, up 1.19% from November 27 [2] - Coal - Based Urea Daily Output: 16.40 million tons on November 28, up 1.11% from November 27 [2] - Gas - Based Urea Daily Output: 3.94 million tons on November 28, up 1.55% from November 27 [2] - Small - Granule Urea Daily Output: 16.59 million tons on November 28, up 1.47% from November 27 [2] - Urea Manufacturer Operating Rate: 84.10% on November 28, up 1.19% from November 27 [2] Weekly Data - Domestic Urea Weekly Output: 141.70 million tons on November 28, down 0.24% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Plant Maintenance Loss (Weekly): 20.94 million tons on November 28, up 12.94% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea In - Plant Inventory (Weekly): 136.39 million tons on November 28, down 5.10% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Port Inventory (Weekly): 10.00 million tons on both November 28 and November 21 [2] - Domestic Northeast Urea Inflow (Weekly): 16.50 million tons on November 28, down 34.00% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Producer Order Days (Weekly): 6.65 days on November 28, down 6.60% from November 21 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply tends to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and the price is expected to be bearish after a rebound, with attention paid to the pressure around 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.56 cents/pound, up 1.85%. The main contract open interest increased by 4.46% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the Kunming spot price is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis is 250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%; the Kunming basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 26.67% [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year-on-year; the national cumulative sugar sales is 811.38 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [1]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly within a stable range, but will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract open interest increased by 0.80% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index: 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month - on - month; the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 33.3% month - on - month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price is expected to rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited and it is still under pressure at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The in - lay hen inventory remains high, but the egg production rate and egg weight have declined due to high temperatures. The demand is expected to increase [8]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The palm oil price may fall and adjust; the soybean oil price will maintain high production, and the spot basis quotation is under pressure [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - class soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50% [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic palm oil inventory and soybean oil inventory situation are given, and the influence of production and inventory on prices is analyzed [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The meal market is under pressure, the domestic soybean and meal inventory is rising, and the meal price is currently in the process of bottom - grinding [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The US soybean production, export, and inventory are affected by weather and tariffs. The domestic soybean and meal inventory and supply and demand situation are also analyzed [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term corn market sentiment is weak, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306 yuan/ton, down 0.60%. The main contract open interest increased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price remains unchanged; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430 yuan/ton, down 0.41% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The import corn auction situation, downstream demand, and substitution situation are analyzed [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price is under pressure in the short term, but there is no basis for a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 on the 09 contract [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract is 13645 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the price of the 2509 contract is 14345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The main contract open interest decreased by 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The pig spot price fluctuates, with prices in various regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, the market demand is weak, and the production capacity expansion is cautious [17][18].