地缘端：加沙停火第一阶段协议正式生效满一个月。以色列政府和哈马斯不断指责对方违反停火协议，协议执行 波折频现，协议的脆弱性愈发凸显。人们担忧持久和平并未真的来临。中国国际问题研究院助理研究员李子昕表 示，虽然说第一阶段停火成功实现了全部仍然活着的以色列在押人员返回，以及大部分离世在押人员遗体的归还， 以色列也释放了一定数量的巴勒斯坦的在押人员，但目前第二阶段停火协议仍然是"遥遥无期"。双方在关键的问 题上几乎没有共识和妥协的余地，如果不能够顺利推进，后续停火被迫终止，恐怕也是在所难免。 动态供给：11月份剩余4周周均运力24.65万TEU，WEEK46/47/48/49周运力分别为15.11/29.65/26.89/26.94万TEU。 12月份月度周均运力33.88万TEU，WEEK50/51/52/53周运力分别为30.74/35.03/32.66/37.1万TEU。11月份共计10个 空班和1个TBN（其中MSC/PA联盟4个空班，双子星联盟1个空班，OA联盟5个空班，OA联盟的1个TBN后续预计 均转为空班）。12月份共计3个TBN。 12月合约:距离交割较远，12月合约交易更多关注节奏问题，预期和现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - expectations and the expectations of price increase letters are driving the strong performance of futures contracts. The 12 - month contract is expected to first trade on the price increase expectations, then the actual implementation of price increase letters. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. The 12 - month contract is expected to be in an upward - trending oscillation, and the valuation ceiling may be around 2100 - 2200 points [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has different quotes for the 45th and 46th weeks, and many shipping companies have different quotes for the first and second half - months of November [1][2] - Geopolitical events: Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military has killed dozens of Hamas commanders and attacked dozens of infrastructure targets since the 28th [2] 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in October is 324,100 TEU, 283,900 TEU in November, and 321,800 TEU in December. There are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 5 TBNs in December [3] 3.3 12 - Month Contract - The 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm of trading. First, it trades on the price increase expectations, then the actual implementation of price increase letters. The 11 - month first - half actual implementation prices are gradually being revised downwards. It is expected that there will be three rounds of price increase letters by the time of the 12 - month contract delivery. If each round of price increase letters is implemented at 300 US dollars/FEU, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the 12 - month contract may be around 2100 - 2200 points [4] 3.4 2026 February Contract - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Whether the shipping companies' contract - signing and price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain. If the high price is implemented in January 2026, the February contract price may be higher than the 12 - month contract price [5][6] 3.5 Strategy - For the single - side trading, the 12 - month contract is expected to be in an upward - trending oscillation. There is no current strategy for arbitrage [8] 3.6 Other Data - As of October 29, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 65,807 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 46,921 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided. The SCFI prices for different routes on October 24 and the SCFIS prices on October 27 are also given [6] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, with the HMM price revised down to $1700/FEU. The 10 - month contract is under downward pressure, and short - allocation is relatively safe, but attention should be paid to the price level at which shipping companies try to stabilize prices. The 12 - month contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. The main contract shows a weak and fluctuating trend, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract at high prices [1][4][5]. - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries, with 180 ships delivered so far, totaling 1.452 million TEU of capacity [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of September 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 80,613 lots, and the daily trading volume is 37,244 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are $1518.70, $1247.80, $1443.00, $1607.40, $1300.70, and $1676.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show a general downward trend in freight rates. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in weeks 37 and 38 have decreased, and many shipping companies' prices in September and October have also declined. The current 9 - month freight rate center has dropped to around $1900/FEU [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. In September, there are 3 blank sailings, and in October, there are 10 blank sailings and 7 TBNs. HPL has announced two additional ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors, such as the Israeli military's actions in Gaza, may affect the shipping supply chain. The Israeli military is expanding its operations in Gaza, which may lead to potential impacts on shipping routes and trade [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared to the same period in 2024. The demand in the US line is weak, and if ships from the US line are transferred to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation in September is stable, and the driving force will continue to be positive for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on shipping companies' suspension of voyages. In terms of valuation, the price in October is close to the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside. The December contract will decline in the short - term following the driving force, but considering the peak season and long - term agreement negotiation season, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying at low prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as FC2510, EC2512, EC2602, etc., prices showed different degrees of change. For example, FC2510 had a - 1.32% change, and EC2512 had a - 1.86% change. The price differences between different contracts also changed, like the EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 378.2, with a 14.6 day - on - day change and a - 92.2 week - on - week change [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied. For instance, the trading volume of EC2510 was 51946, and the open interest was 25510 [1]. Spot Index Information - **Index Changes**: Indicators such as SCHIS, SCFI, CCFI, and NCFI all showed declines. SCHIS decreased by - 100.00% compared to the previous period, and SCFI dropped by - 11.21% [1]. Shipping Capacity Information - **Original Shipping Capacity**: In September and October, the weekly average shipping capacity was 29.6 and 30.9 million TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, it was 29.6 and 28.1 million TEU respectively. After the September 4th update, due to the suspension of voyages during the National Day holiday, the shipping capacity in week 40 and 41 decreased to 31 and 23.7 million TEU respectively, and the weekly average in October was 28.9 million TEU. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, the shipping capacity in September and October was 29.6 and 26 million TEU respectively [1][2]. Price Quotation Information - **Recent Quotations**: Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - September (week 37 - 38). In week 36, the shipping company's quotation was between 2120 - 2420, with an average of 2250 US dollars (1550 points). In week 37, the average quotation was 2100 US dollars (1450 points), and in week 38, it was 2000 US dollars (1370 points). On Wednesday, YML quoted 1800 US dollars for the second half of September and the first half of October [3]. News Information - **Military News**: On September 2, the Israeli military stated that its military operations in Gaza City had advanced to new areas. On September 4, Hamas reiterated its willingness to reach a comprehensive agreement in Gaza and release all Israeli hostages [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as it is a off - season contract, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The risk for the December contract lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [6][7][9] - The supply of container ship capacity is affected by factors such as ship delivery and empty - sail filling. The freight rate is influenced by supply and demand, economic conditions, and shipping company strategies. [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 80,906.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 49,119.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1496.90, 1284.00, 1445.70, 2136.00, 1358.00, and 1696.70 respectively. [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210; HPL's quotes for the first half and second half of September were 1435/2235. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes for the second half of August and September were 1510/2620 and 1410/2420 respectively. [1][3] - The final delivery settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the freight rate center continues to decline. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. [5][6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU, and the capacity in week 35 was 30.84 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 36/37/38/39 were 326,500/276,000/314,500/325,500 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in October was 282,300 TEU. [4] - In September, the two empty sailings of the PA alliance were filled. In week 38, the FE4 route was filled by HMM AQUAMARINE (13,788 TEU), and in week 37, the FE3 route was filled by HMM ALGECIRAS (23,964 TEU). HPL announced information about two additional ships in October. [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 176,880 TEU. [9] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the fourth quarter, Western holidays are concentrated, and shipping companies usually adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level. However, if ships from the US route are transferred to the European route, it may put pressure on European route prices. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Volatile; Palladium: Volatile [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the solicitation draft for platinum and palladium futures contracts by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange indicates the approaching listing of these futures, which fills the gap in risk management tools for new energy metals in China [10]. - The platinum and palladium futures contracts have unique features such as relatively high contract values and entry thresholds, special contract month arrangements, and trading time settings that may affect price continuity and arbitrage efficiency. The innovative design of the delivery system also has implications for the participation of industrial enterprises [4][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - On July 31, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange released the solicitation drafts for platinum and palladium futures contracts and related option and business rule documents, aiming to promote green - low - carbon development [10]. 3.2 Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain Overview - Platinum and palladium belong to the platinum - group metals, with stable physical and chemical properties. Their industry chain consists of upstream mining, mid - stream processing, and downstream applications. The global resource endowment is extremely uneven, with South Africa and Russia being major resource - rich regions. China's proven reserves are less than 1% of the global total. The mid - stream processing includes primary and recycling methods, and the downstream demand is mainly concentrated in the automotive exhaust catalyst field (37% for platinum and 82% for palladium), followed by jewelry, industrial, and investment demands [11]. 3.3 Key Parameter Interpretation of Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts - **Contract Basics**: The trading codes for platinum and palladium futures are PT and PD respectively, with a trading unit of 1000 grams per lot, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan per gram, a daily price limit of ±4% (±6% in the delivery month), and a minimum trading margin of 5%. The contract months follow an even - month continuous double - month pattern (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12), and the trading time is from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm, with no night trading for now [1][15][16]. - **Margin**: Based on the current price, the minimum margin for one lot of platinum/palladium futures is about 1.5 - 1.6 million yuan. The expected combined margin rate of the exchange and futures companies is about 15%, resulting in a trading margin of about 4.75 million yuan for one lot of platinum futures and 4.5 million yuan for one lot of palladium futures. The trading margin adopts a three - stage ladder - type management system [22]. - **Position Limit System**: Platinum and palladium futures use a three - stage dynamic position limit system. In normal months, different position limits are set according to the unilateral position of the contract. As the delivery month approaches, the position limits are gradually reduced, and individual customers are not allowed to hold positions in the delivery month [24]. - **Delivery Matters**: The futures adopt physical delivery with a delivery unit of 1000g (net weight). The benchmark delivery items are platinum/palladium ingots, sponge platinum/palladium, and platinum/palladium powder with a main component content of not less than 99.95%. There is a single - quality standard with no alternative delivery items and no clear regional premium or discount. The delivery system combines warehouse and factory warehouse delivery, and only domestic platinum and palladium ingots can be registered as warehouse standard warehouse receipts, while powder - form metals and imported products can only be registered as factory warehouse receipts. The warehouse receipts are valid for 12 months and are uniformly cancelled after the last trading day of August each year [26][28][30]. - **Delivery Area Speculation**: Considering factors such as industry agglomeration, logistics convenience, and import dependence, potential delivery areas include industrial - intensive regions like Yunnan, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Sichuan, as well as Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong [3][31]. 3.4 Platinum and Palladium Option Contracts - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange also launched platinum and palladium option contracts. The options use the American exercise method, with a trading unit of one lot of platinum/palladium futures contracts, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan per gram, and a price limit consistent with the underlying futures contracts. The contract months are the same as those of the underlying futures contracts, and the exercise price range is set to cover the price range within 1.5 times the daily price limit of the previous trading day's settlement price of the underlying futures contract. A segmented exercise price interval design is adopted [38]. 3.5 Characteristics Interpretation of Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts - **Contract Value and Threshold**: The high contract value of platinum and palladium futures creates an entry barrier for investors. Insufficient liquidity at the initial listing stage may affect price continuity [4][41]. - **Contract Months and Liquidity Distribution**: The lack of continuous - month contracts may lead to a relatively steep B/C structure in the forward curve, and enterprises may face higher basis risks [4][41]. - **Trading Time and Linkage with Overseas Markets**: The absence of night trading in domestic platinum and palladium futures, compared with the 23 - hour continuous trading of Nymex platinum and palladium futures, may affect price continuity, arbitrage efficiency, and create time - difference arbitrage opportunities [4][41]. - **Innovation and Limitations of Delivery Rules**: The inclusion of sponge - form metals in the delivery system is innovative, but the restriction on registering warehouse standard warehouse receipts only for domestic ingots reflects the policy orientation of supporting domestic smelting industries and ensuring supply - chain security [42].

期货市场概述 - 期货市场是全球最大、最活跃的交易市场，成交面值甚至超过外汇市场 [1] - 期货合约是甲乙双方约定在未来特定时间以约定价格交易特定商品的合约 [1] - 期货最初用于商品供应商对冲风险，如小麦农商锁定未来卖出价，面粉厂锁定未来买入成本 [1] - 期货市场不仅追踪石油、大豆、黄金等大宗商品价格，还追踪股票、国债等虚拟资产和金融资产，甚至可以追踪股指等虚无指标 [1][2] 期货交易特点与应用 - 期货交易可用于对冲、投机，本质上是对未来价格的对赌，一切指标皆可期货化、交易化 [1][2] - 市场上绝大多数期货交易者不在交割日持有到期，而是在交割日前清仓 [2] - 期货产品主要包括利率类（如SOFR期货）、股票类（如股指期货）和大宗商品类 [2][3] - 期货交易具有高杠杆、易于做空和隐秘性三大特点 [3] 期货市场风险与案例 - 对冲基金利用期货市场进行投机，例如可可豆期货暴涨案例，对冲基金押注可可豆减产 [1] - 索罗斯利用期货做空英镑，通过期货市场放大攻击力，对现货市场产生压力，最终导致英镑崩盘 [4][5] - 亚洲金融危机中，空头们做空东南亚货币，与东南亚央行在外汇储备上进行博弈，核心战场也在期货市场 [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Under high - capacity pressure and with demand entering the off - season, the freight rates will face downward pressure in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Futures Contracts and Spreads - The closing prices of EC futures contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc., showed different degrees of decline or increase on July 28, 2025. For example, EC2508 closed at 2212.6 with a - 1.44% decline [2] - The month - to - month spreads like EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512 also had changes compared to previous days and weeks [2] Shipping Freight Indexes - The SCFI (European Line) updated on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, with a 0.53% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Other indexes like CCFI, NCFI, and TCI also had their respective data and changes [2] European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure especially in the second half of August [2] - There is a transfer of shipping schedules from the US line to the European line. With the support of the shipping companies' base cargo volume, the shipping companies' stowage rate in late July was not under great pressure, but the cargo volume in early August is gradually weakening [2] European Line Quotations - In July, the European line quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [3] - In August, the PA Alliance's quotations dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's quotations decreased slightly at first and then increased slightly, and OA mainly maintained at 3400 - 3500 dollars (considering a decline). The quotation in week 31 was about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [13] Relevant News - On July 27, 2025, US President Trump announced that the US and the EU had reached a trade agreement, including a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, a 600 - billion - dollar increase in EU investment in the US, and the EU's purchase of US military equipment and 750 - billion - dollar energy products [4] - The Yemen Houthi rebels stated that they would attack any ships belonging to companies with business at Israeli ports [4] - The cease - fire negotiation between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was deadlocked. Israel was considering measures to pressure Hamas, while Hamas officials said they were ready to complete the negotiation and that Israel's negative statements were an attempt to avoid the negotiation results [5]

Group 1 - The trading variety is polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1] - The trading unit is tons [1] - The quotation unit is in Chinese Yuan (RMB) per ton [1] Group 2 - The minimum price fluctuation is 1 RMB per ton [1] - The price limit for daily trading is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price [1] - The contract months available for trading are from January to December [1] Group 3 - Trading hours are from 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM and 1:30 PM to 3:00 PM, along with other specified trading times [1] - The last trading day is the last trading day of the month prior to the contract month [1] - The delivery date coincides with the last trading day [1] Group 4 - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value [1] - The delivery method is cash settlement [1] - The trading code is V followed by the contract month F [1] Group 5 - The exchange for trading is the Dalian Commodity Exchange [1]

Group 1 - The trading variety is polypropylene [1] - The trading unit is tons per hand [1] - The quotation unit is RMB per ton [1] Group 2 - The minimum price fluctuation is 1 RMB per ton [1] - The price limit for daily trading is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price [1] - The contract months available for trading are from January to December [1] Group 3 - Trading hours are from 9:00 to 11:30 in the morning and 13:30 to 15:00 in the afternoon, along with other specified trading times [1] - The last trading day is the last trading day of the month prior to the contract month [1] - The delivery date coincides with the last trading day [1] Group 4 - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value [1] - The delivery method is cash settlement [1] - The trading code is PP contract month F [1] Group 5 - The trading exchange is Dalian Commodity Exchange [1]