航运日报 | 2025-08-26 9月份PA联盟两个空班被填补，关注马士基9月第二周报价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹36周价格1315/2210；HPL 9月上半月船期报价1435/2235，9月下半月价 格1435/2235。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 8月下半月船期报价1550/2590，9月上半月船期报价1556/2602；ONE9月上半月船期 报价1804/2343；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月上半月船期报价2200美元/FEU; YML9月上半月报价1350/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹8月下半月船期报价1510/2620，9月份船期报价1410/2420；EMC 8月下半月船 期报价介于2660-2760美元/FEU，9月份船期价格1605/2410；OOCL 9月上半月船期价格2200-2300美元/FEU。 地缘端：以色列总理内塔尼亚胡：以色列对今天发生在加沙纳赛尔医院的这起悲剧性事故深感遗憾。 特朗普：与 内塔尼亚胡打交道相当棘手。预计未来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Volatile; Palladium: Volatile [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the solicitation draft for platinum and palladium futures contracts by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange indicates the approaching listing of these futures, which fills the gap in risk management tools for new energy metals in China [10]. - The platinum and palladium futures contracts have unique features such as relatively high contract values and entry thresholds, special contract month arrangements, and trading time settings that may affect price continuity and arbitrage efficiency. The innovative design of the delivery system also has implications for the participation of industrial enterprises [4][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - On July 31, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange released the solicitation drafts for platinum and palladium futures contracts and related option and business rule documents, aiming to promote green - low - carbon development [10]. 3.2 Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain Overview - Platinum and palladium belong to the platinum - group metals, with stable physical and chemical properties. Their industry chain consists of upstream mining, mid - stream processing, and downstream applications. The global resource endowment is extremely uneven, with South Africa and Russia being major resource - rich regions. China's proven reserves are less than 1% of the global total. The mid - stream processing includes primary and recycling methods, and the downstream demand is mainly concentrated in the automotive exhaust catalyst field (37% for platinum and 82% for palladium), followed by jewelry, industrial, and investment demands [11]. 3.3 Key Parameter Interpretation of Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts - **Contract Basics**: The trading codes for platinum and palladium futures are PT and PD respectively, with a trading unit of 1000 grams per lot, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan per gram, a daily price limit of ±4% (±6% in the delivery month), and a minimum trading margin of 5%. The contract months follow an even - month continuous double - month pattern (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12), and the trading time is from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm, with no night trading for now [1][15][16]. - **Margin**: Based on the current price, the minimum margin for one lot of platinum/palladium futures is about 1.5 - 1.6 million yuan. The expected combined margin rate of the exchange and futures companies is about 15%, resulting in a trading margin of about 4.75 million yuan for one lot of platinum futures and 4.5 million yuan for one lot of palladium futures. The trading margin adopts a three - stage ladder - type management system [22]. - **Position Limit System**: Platinum and palladium futures use a three - stage dynamic position limit system. In normal months, different position limits are set according to the unilateral position of the contract. As the delivery month approaches, the position limits are gradually reduced, and individual customers are not allowed to hold positions in the delivery month [24]. - **Delivery Matters**: The futures adopt physical delivery with a delivery unit of 1000g (net weight). The benchmark delivery items are platinum/palladium ingots, sponge platinum/palladium, and platinum/palladium powder with a main component content of not less than 99.95%. There is a single - quality standard with no alternative delivery items and no clear regional premium or discount. The delivery system combines warehouse and factory warehouse delivery, and only domestic platinum and palladium ingots can be registered as warehouse standard warehouse receipts, while powder - form metals and imported products can only be registered as factory warehouse receipts. The warehouse receipts are valid for 12 months and are uniformly cancelled after the last trading day of August each year [26][28][30]. - **Delivery Area Speculation**: Considering factors such as industry agglomeration, logistics convenience, and import dependence, potential delivery areas include industrial - intensive regions like Yunnan, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Sichuan, as well as Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong [3][31]. 3.4 Platinum and Palladium Option Contracts - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange also launched platinum and palladium option contracts. The options use the American exercise method, with a trading unit of one lot of platinum/palladium futures contracts, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan per gram, and a price limit consistent with the underlying futures contracts. The contract months are the same as those of the underlying futures contracts, and the exercise price range is set to cover the price range within 1.5 times the daily price limit of the previous trading day's settlement price of the underlying futures contract. A segmented exercise price interval design is adopted [38]. 3.5 Characteristics Interpretation of Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts - **Contract Value and Threshold**: The high contract value of platinum and palladium futures creates an entry barrier for investors. Insufficient liquidity at the initial listing stage may affect price continuity [4][41]. - **Contract Months and Liquidity Distribution**: The lack of continuous - month contracts may lead to a relatively steep B/C structure in the forward curve, and enterprises may face higher basis risks [4][41]. - **Trading Time and Linkage with Overseas Markets**: The absence of night trading in domestic platinum and palladium futures, compared with the 23 - hour continuous trading of Nymex platinum and palladium futures, may affect price continuity, arbitrage efficiency, and create time - difference arbitrage opportunities [4][41]. - **Innovation and Limitations of Delivery Rules**: The inclusion of sponge - form metals in the delivery system is innovative, but the restriction on registering warehouse standard warehouse receipts only for domestic ingots reflects the policy orientation of supporting domestic smelting industries and ensuring supply - chain security [42].

期货市场概述 - 期货市场是全球最大、最活跃的交易市场，成交面值甚至超过外汇市场 [1] - 期货合约是甲乙双方约定在未来特定时间以约定价格交易特定商品的合约 [1] - 期货最初用于商品供应商对冲风险，如小麦农商锁定未来卖出价，面粉厂锁定未来买入成本 [1] - 期货市场不仅追踪石油、大豆、黄金等大宗商品价格，还追踪股票、国债等虚拟资产和金融资产，甚至可以追踪股指等虚无指标 [1][2] 期货交易特点与应用 - 期货交易可用于对冲、投机，本质上是对未来价格的对赌，一切指标皆可期货化、交易化 [1][2] - 市场上绝大多数期货交易者不在交割日持有到期，而是在交割日前清仓 [2] - 期货产品主要包括利率类（如SOFR期货）、股票类（如股指期货）和大宗商品类 [2][3] - 期货交易具有高杠杆、易于做空和隐秘性三大特点 [3] 期货市场风险与案例 - 对冲基金利用期货市场进行投机，例如可可豆期货暴涨案例，对冲基金押注可可豆减产 [1] - 索罗斯利用期货做空英镑，通过期货市场放大攻击力，对现货市场产生压力，最终导致英镑崩盘 [4][5] - 亚洲金融危机中，空头们做空东南亚货币，与东南亚央行在外汇储备上进行博弈，核心战场也在期货市场 [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Under high - capacity pressure and with demand entering the off - season, the freight rates will face downward pressure in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Futures Contracts and Spreads - The closing prices of EC futures contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc., showed different degrees of decline or increase on July 28, 2025. For example, EC2508 closed at 2212.6 with a - 1.44% decline [2] - The month - to - month spreads like EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512 also had changes compared to previous days and weeks [2] Shipping Freight Indexes - The SCFI (European Line) updated on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, with a 0.53% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Other indexes like CCFI, NCFI, and TCI also had their respective data and changes [2] European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure especially in the second half of August [2] - There is a transfer of shipping schedules from the US line to the European line. With the support of the shipping companies' base cargo volume, the shipping companies' stowage rate in late July was not under great pressure, but the cargo volume in early August is gradually weakening [2] European Line Quotations - In July, the European line quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [3] - In August, the PA Alliance's quotations dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's quotations decreased slightly at first and then increased slightly, and OA mainly maintained at 3400 - 3500 dollars (considering a decline). The quotation in week 31 was about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [13] Relevant News - On July 27, 2025, US President Trump announced that the US and the EU had reached a trade agreement, including a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, a 600 - billion - dollar increase in EU investment in the US, and the EU's purchase of US military equipment and 750 - billion - dollar energy products [4] - The Yemen Houthi rebels stated that they would attack any ships belonging to companies with business at Israeli ports [4] - The cease - fire negotiation between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was deadlocked. Israel was considering measures to pressure Hamas, while Hamas officials said they were ready to complete the negotiation and that Israel's negative statements were an attempt to avoid the negotiation results [5]

Group 1 - The trading variety is polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1] - The trading unit is tons [1] - The quotation unit is in Chinese Yuan (RMB) per ton [1] Group 2 - The minimum price fluctuation is 1 RMB per ton [1] - The price limit for daily trading is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price [1] - The contract months available for trading are from January to December [1] Group 3 - Trading hours are from 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM and 1:30 PM to 3:00 PM, along with other specified trading times [1] - The last trading day is the last trading day of the month prior to the contract month [1] - The delivery date coincides with the last trading day [1] Group 4 - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value [1] - The delivery method is cash settlement [1] - The trading code is V followed by the contract month F [1] Group 5 - The exchange for trading is the Dalian Commodity Exchange [1]

Group 1 - The trading variety is polypropylene [1] - The trading unit is tons per hand [1] - The quotation unit is RMB per ton [1] Group 2 - The minimum price fluctuation is 1 RMB per ton [1] - The price limit for daily trading is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price [1] - The contract months available for trading are from January to December [1] Group 3 - Trading hours are from 9:00 to 11:30 in the morning and 13:30 to 15:00 in the afternoon, along with other specified trading times [1] - The last trading day is the last trading day of the month prior to the contract month [1] - The delivery date coincides with the last trading day [1] Group 4 - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value [1] - The delivery method is cash settlement [1] - The trading code is PP contract month F [1] Group 5 - The trading exchange is Dalian Commodity Exchange [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping capacity in August is relatively high, with an average weekly capacity of 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. However, there is still support from base cargo at the beginning of August. In the next half - month, the market may remain stable or see a slight decline in quotes from some shipping companies [1]. - The downstream is currently booking shipping space for early August (week 30 - 31). The quotes were stable throughout July, around 2400 points. In the fifth week of July (week 31), the quote was $3400, equivalent to around 2400 points on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 2367.3, a change of 33.2, a trading volume of 11341, and an open interest of 13245 [1]. - For different EC futures contracts, there were various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. For example, EC2510 had a closing price of 1644.7, a change of 755.8, a trading volume of 72757, and an open interest of 52717 [1]. - The month - to - month spreads also showed different trends. For instance, the spread between EC2508 - 2510 was 722.6, with a day - on - day increase of 69.7 [1]. Spot Freight Rate Index - SCHI2 on July 21, 2025, was 2400.5 points, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous period [1]. - SCFI on July 18, 2025, was $2079 per TEU, a decrease of 0.95% compared to the previous period [1]. - CCFI on July 18, 2025, was 1803.42 points, an increase of 4.46% compared to the previous period [1]. - NCFI on July 18, 2025, was 1440.25 points, an increase of 0.35% compared to the previous period [1]. - TCI on July 18, 2025, was 1054.56 points, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous period [1]. Recent European Line Quotes - The downstream is booking space for early August. Quotes were stable in July, around 2400 points. In week 31 of July, the quote was $3400, equivalent to around 2400 points on the futures market [2]. - On July 21, CMA lowered its quotes. The quote at the end of July decreased from $3645 to $3445, from $4145 to $3745 in early August, and from $5245 to $4145 in late August [2]. Related News - On July 19, Hamas reached a comprehensive cease - fire agreement, but Israel rejected it. Hamas was ready for a long - term battle and was willing to release all hostages in Gaza as part of the cease - fire agreement [3]. - On July 21, the Israeli Defense Forces started a ground operation in southern Deir al - Balah in the central Gaza Strip [3]. - On July 22, US President Trump hoped to end the conflict in Gaza through negotiation, achieve a cease - fire, and secure the release of all hostages [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinions on futures contracts, options contracts, and related business rules for coated printing paper [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinions on futures and options contracts related to coated printing paper and associated business rules [1] Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has opened a public consultation regarding the futures and options contracts for coated printing paper [1]