新年伊始，世界经济航船在新的风浪中颠簸，人们力图铆牢更多"压舱石"。地缘政治风险、美国政策不 确定性迭起、美联储独立性风险仍存，以及非美资产越来越受欢迎的背景下，金银等具有避险属性的贵 金属在去年走势强劲后，今年持续强劲走势。"疯铜""狂锡"等也紧随其后。 周二（1月20日），格陵兰岛事件发酵叠加日债美债均遭遇抛售潮，黄金与白银再度双双创下历史新 高。周三（21日）亚太交易时段，现货黄金站上4800美元/盎司，续创历史新高，本月已累涨超过 12%。纽约期金也触及4800美元/盎司。铂金价格同样创下新高，白银价格在历史峰值附近徘徊。多 头"逼空"下，周三到期的LME（伦敦金属交易所）期铜合约也一度比次日到期的合约溢价100美元，创 2021年以来新高。 不少接受一财记者采访的分析师认为，贵金属有望迎来周期性牛市。 黄金续创历史新高，期铜合约溢价飙高 21日午盘，现货黄金价格报4862.46美元/盎司，日内上涨2.1%，稍早盘中曾创下4865.73美元的历史新 高。2月交割的美国黄金期货价格日内涨幅也仍达到2%，报4861.20美元/盎司。铂金价格稍早也一度飙 升至2511.10美元/盎司的历史新高，随后有所回落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is facing significant challenges, leading to a strong performance in precious metals like gold and silver, which are seen as safe-haven assets. Analysts predict a potential cyclical bull market for these metals in the near future [1][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - On January 21, spot gold reached a new high of $4862.46 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.1%, while platinum also hit a record high of $2511.10 per ounce [3][4]. - Silver prices approached their historical peak, trading at $94.48 per ounce, just shy of the $95.87 record set earlier [3]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. policy are driving the demand for gold, with expectations that prices could reach $5000 per ounce sooner than anticipated [3][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds has raised concerns about fiscal stability, contributing to a trend of "devaluation trading" where investors seek alternatives to currency and government bonds [4]. - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with Poland's central bank planning to buy up to 150 tons, increasing its reserves to 700 tons, which supports gold prices [5]. - The copper market is also experiencing significant price increases, with LME copper contracts showing a premium of $100, the highest since 2021, indicating strong demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Commodity Cycle - Market experts believe that a long-term commodity cycle is beginning, with precious metals like gold and silver expected to continue performing well due to structural factors such as increased government spending and geopolitical uncertainties [6][7]. - The demand for industrial metals, particularly copper, is anticipated to rise due to factors like AI-related capital expenditures and overall economic growth expectations [7]. - Investment strategies are shifting towards gold as a defensive asset, with institutions increasingly favoring it over traditional government bonds due to concerns about their performance in negative scenarios [8][10]. Group 4: Silver and Other Precious Metals - Silver is expected to benefit from the same investment logic as gold, although it carries higher volatility and risks [9]. - Other precious metals like palladium are also considered, but they come with specific risks related to their production locations [9].