Group 1: Global Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, developed economies showed stable demand for commodities, with Europe recovering and the US maintaining resilience, while Japan and South Korea experienced weaker economic conditions [1] - Emerging economies, except for India, saw a decline in economic growth, leading to a slight decrease in commodity demand growth [1] - As the deadline for the US to impose additional tariffs approaches, market investors have mixed expectations for global commodity demand in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Copper prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, averaging around $9,500 per ton, influenced by anticipated US tariffs and "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - Demand for copper is expected to remain strong in the short term, with an estimated inflow of 180,000 tons into the US before tariffs take effect, but long-term outlook remains bearish [2] - Domestic copper production is projected to be between 1.05 million and 1.08 million tons per month in the second half of the year, with a global increase in refined copper production of 320,000 tons, a 2.4% rise [2][3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The aluminum market faced oversupply pressures in the first half of the year, with prices fluctuating between 2,850 and 3,400 RMB per ton [4] - Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by around 4%, translating to an increase of approximately 1.8 million tons [4] - The domestic aluminum supply is projected to increase by 1.2 million tons, a 2.8% rise, with no significant supply gaps anticipated in the global market [4][5] Group 4: Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been under pressure due to global trade tensions, with prices rebounding towards production cost levels by the end of the second quarter [6] - The supply of nickel remains ample, with a decline in high-grade nickel production and an increase in overall refining capacity [6] - Demand for nickel, particularly from the stainless steel sector, is expected to remain weak, with price fluctuations projected between 105,000 and 128,000 RMB per ton [6] Group 5: Tin Market Outlook - Tin prices have shown a "high-low-rebound" trend in the first half of the year, with global apparent consumption initially expected to grow by 5% but later revised to negative due to declining end-user demand [7][8] - Supply from Indonesia increased, while production from Malaysia and Bolivia decreased, leading to a slight overall supply increase [7] - The expected price range for tin in the second half of the year is between $30,000 and $36,000 per ton [8] Group 6: Lead Market Dynamics - Lead prices increased by 2.6% in the first half of the year, with an average price of 16,975 RMB per ton, despite a decline in import demand [9] - Global lead production is expected to grow by 4%, while recycled lead production is projected to decline by 4.8% [10] - The lead market is anticipated to experience supply and demand growth in the second half of the year, with price fluctuations expected between 16,500 and 17,800 RMB per ton [10] Group 7: Black Commodity Market Trends - The black commodity market faced downward pressure due to oversupply, high inventories, and weakened export expectations [11] - Crude steel demand is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year in the second half, with a reduction in production of approximately 10 million tons for the year [11][12] - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate between $76 and $85 per ton internationally, with domestic prices ranging from 656 to 730 RMB per ton [12] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Market Developments - Lithium carbonate prices have significantly decreased, with a drop of 22% to 62,260 RMB per ton by June 30 [13] - The lithium market is entering a phase of capacity clearing, with supply pressures expected to continue into the second half of the year [13][15] - Demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow by 22% in the second half, with prices expected to stabilize between 50,000 and 70,000 RMB per ton [15] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Market Projections - Industrial silicon prices have been on a downward trend, with supply expected to increase slightly in the second half of the year [16][17] - The market is anticipated to achieve a tight balance between supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate between 6,500 and 9,500 RMB per ton [17]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, the European economy showed signs of recovery, the US economy remained resilient, while Japan and South Korea experienced weaker economic conditions, leading to stabilized growth in commodity demand among developed economies [2] - Emerging economies, except for India which maintained high growth, saw a decline in economic growth rates, resulting in a slight decrease in commodity demand growth [2] - As the deadline for the US to postpone tariff increases approaches, there is significant divergence in market expectations regarding global commodity demand for the second half of the year [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - In the first half of the year, copper prices fluctuated widely due to anticipated US tariffs, with an average price around $9,500 per ton [3] - Demand for copper is expected to be influenced by raw material import conditions, with a projected inflow of approximately 180,000 tons into the US before tariffs are implemented [3] - Domestic copper production is estimated to be between 1.05 million and 1.08 million tons per month for the second half of the year, with a total global copper production increase of 320,000 tons expected [3][4] Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The aluminum market faced a slight oversupply in the first half of the year, with prices fluctuating between 2,850 and 3,400 RMB per ton [6] - Global aluminum demand is projected to grow by around 4%, with a total increase of approximately 1.8 million tons [7] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 19,500 and 20,500 RMB per ton in the second half of the year, with potential peaks reaching 21,000 RMB per ton [7] Group 4: Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been under pressure due to global trade tensions, with a significant drop in prices observed in the first half of the year [8][10] - The demand for stainless steel remains weak, leading to a pessimistic outlook for nickel demand in the second half of the year [9] - Nickel price fluctuations are expected to range between 105,000 and 128,000 RMB per ton, with London nickel prices between $14,000 and $15,800 [10] Group 5: Tin Market Dynamics - Tin prices experienced a "high-low-rebound" trend in the first half of the year, with expectations for global apparent consumption to turn negative in the second half due to declining end-demand [11] - Global tin supply is expected to increase by 3% in the second half, with a projected price range of $30,000 to $36,000 per ton for London tin [12] Group 6: Lead Market Overview - Lead prices increased by 2.6% in the first half of the year, with a projected growth of 4% in domestic lead production for the year [13][14] - The lead market is expected to see supply and demand growth in the second half, with price fluctuations anticipated between 16,500 and 17,800 RMB per ton [14] Group 7: Black Commodity Market Trends - The black commodity market faced downward pressure due to oversupply and high inventory levels, with crude steel demand expected to decline by 1.5% in the second half of the year [15][16] - Iron ore prices are projected to fluctuate between $76 and $85 per ton internationally, with domestic prices between 656 and 730 RMB per ton [16] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Market Outlook - Lithium carbonate prices have significantly decreased, with a 22% drop since the beginning of the year, as the industry enters a phase of capacity clearing [17] - Global lithium resource supply is expected to grow by 23% in 2025, with domestic demand projected at 115.7 million tons LCE for the year [18][19] - Lithium carbonate prices are anticipated to remain stable within a range of 50,000 to 70,000 RMB per ton in the second half of the year [19] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Market Forecast - Industrial silicon prices have been on a downward trend, with expectations for a slight increase in supply in the second half of the year [20][21] - The market is projected to achieve a balance between supply and demand, with price fluctuations expected between 6,500 and 9,500 RMB per ton [21]