Group 1: Global Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, developed economies showed stable demand for commodities, with Europe recovering and the US maintaining resilience, while Japan and South Korea experienced weaker economic conditions [1] - Emerging economies, except for India, saw a decline in economic growth, leading to a slight decrease in commodity demand growth [1] - As the deadline for the US to impose additional tariffs approaches, market investors have mixed expectations for global commodity demand in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Copper prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, averaging around $9,500 per ton, influenced by anticipated US tariffs and "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - Demand for copper is expected to remain strong in the short term, with an estimated inflow of 180,000 tons into the US before tariffs take effect, but long-term outlook remains bearish [2] - Domestic copper production is projected to be between 1.05 million and 1.08 million tons per month in the second half of the year, with a global increase in refined copper production of 320,000 tons, a 2.4% rise [2][3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The aluminum market faced oversupply pressures in the first half of the year, with prices fluctuating between 2,850 and 3,400 RMB per ton [4] - Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by around 4%, translating to an increase of approximately 1.8 million tons [4] - The domestic aluminum supply is projected to increase by 1.2 million tons, a 2.8% rise, with no significant supply gaps anticipated in the global market [4][5] Group 4: Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been under pressure due to global trade tensions, with prices rebounding towards production cost levels by the end of the second quarter [6] - The supply of nickel remains ample, with a decline in high-grade nickel production and an increase in overall refining capacity [6] - Demand for nickel, particularly from the stainless steel sector, is expected to remain weak, with price fluctuations projected between 105,000 and 128,000 RMB per ton [6] Group 5: Tin Market Outlook - Tin prices have shown a "high-low-rebound" trend in the first half of the year, with global apparent consumption initially expected to grow by 5% but later revised to negative due to declining end-user demand [7][8] - Supply from Indonesia increased, while production from Malaysia and Bolivia decreased, leading to a slight overall supply increase [7] - The expected price range for tin in the second half of the year is between $30,000 and $36,000 per ton [8] Group 6: Lead Market Dynamics - Lead prices increased by 2.6% in the first half of the year, with an average price of 16,975 RMB per ton, despite a decline in import demand [9] - Global lead production is expected to grow by 4%, while recycled lead production is projected to decline by 4.8% [10] - The lead market is anticipated to experience supply and demand growth in the second half of the year, with price fluctuations expected between 16,500 and 17,800 RMB per ton [10] Group 7: Black Commodity Market Trends - The black commodity market faced downward pressure due to oversupply, high inventories, and weakened export expectations [11] - Crude steel demand is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year in the second half, with a reduction in production of approximately 10 million tons for the year [11][12] - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate between $76 and $85 per ton internationally, with domestic prices ranging from 656 to 730 RMB per ton [12] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Market Developments - Lithium carbonate prices have significantly decreased, with a drop of 22% to 62,260 RMB per ton by June 30 [13] - The lithium market is entering a phase of capacity clearing, with supply pressures expected to continue into the second half of the year [13][15] - Demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow by 22% in the second half, with prices expected to stabilize between 50,000 and 70,000 RMB per ton [15] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Market Projections - Industrial silicon prices have been on a downward trend, with supply expected to increase slightly in the second half of the year [16][17] - The market is anticipated to achieve a tight balance between supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate between 6,500 and 9,500 RMB per ton [17]

SHMET 网讯：今年上半年，欧洲经济回暖、美国经济维持韧性、日韩经济偏弱，发达经济体大宗商品需求增速企稳。新兴经济体方面，除印度维持较 高的经济增速外，其他经济体经济增速走弱，大宗商品需求增速略有下降。随着美国对其他国家暂缓加征关税的窗口期进入最后1天倒计时，市场投资者对 下半年全球大宗商品需求预期存在较大分歧。 铜：三季度价格或阶段性承压（金瑞期货 孟昊 吴梓杰 林泓） 今年上半年，市场预计美国将加征铜关税，叠加"对等关税"的影响，伦铜价格出现宽幅波动，估值持续抬升，均价在9500美元／吨左右。此外，由于 COMEX期铜的虹吸作用，期限结构由Contango转为Back。 宏观方面，美国经济下行压力加大，预计美联储下半年将降息1到2次，最早的降息时点或出现在9月份。在宏观政策托底的情况下，我国经济复苏节奏 逐步加快。 基本面方面，需求端需要关注原料进口情况。铜关税落地前，铜现货仍将流入美国，流入规模约18万吨，整体来看对铜价短期利多、长期利空。我国上 半年的原料进口规模在35万吨左右，预计未来继续增长的概率偏低。基于原料库存水平已经较低，我国下半年的合理月均精铜产量预计在105万～108万吨。 供应端，机 ...