摘要 隆鑫通用聚焦摩托车及通用机械核心业务，剥离非核心业务如无人机和 低速电动车，并通过资产重组解决与宗申的同业竞争问题，短期内或将 部分发动机业务转移。 国内市场中小排量燃油摩托需求萎缩，但高端大排量车型仍具潜力；国 际市场园林机械需求增加，公司积极拓展欧洲等非美市场，出口有望保 持较高增速。 过去战略调整导致的资产减值逐步改善，2025 年上半年商誉减值基本 消除，其他资产和信用减值也在缩窄，有助于提升公司财务健康度。 国内大排量摩托车市场集中度稳定，自主品牌如春风、钱江和隆鑫占据 主导地位，隆鑫受益于与宝马的技术合作，不断拓展中大型冒险修旅类 车型。 隆鑫与宝马合作奠定大排量技术基础，产品矩阵日益丰富，国内外市场 营收稳健增长，高利润大排车型占比上升，缓解了营收下滑带来的利润 影响。 无极品牌在欧洲市场表现突出，尤其在西班牙市场份额排名第四，并积 极拓展法国、德国和英国市场，计划推出针对英国市场的 CU 系列车型。 无极公司在拉美地区集中于阿根廷市场，并积极拓展巴西、墨西哥和哥 伦比亚等主要拉美国家，同时在通路车、全地形车及园林机械领域稳步 发展。 隆鑫通用 20260127 Q&A 隆鑫通用在摩托车行 ...

Investment Highlights - The automotive industry is expected to see a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and resilient companies like Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall, and others [3][8] - For heavy trucks, wholesale sales in 2025 are projected at 1.14 million units, a 26% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales expected to reach 800,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 3% growth [4][35] - The bus sector is anticipated to benefit from a new vehicle replacement policy in 2026, with expected sales of 40,000 units, a 5% increase year-on-year, driven by the need to replace aging buses [4][34] - The motorcycle market is projected to grow, with total industry sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, and large-displacement motorcycles expected to see a 31% increase in sales [5][32] Passenger Vehicle Insights - The short-term outlook for the passenger vehicle sector is positive, with a recovery in demand expected in early 2026, supported by subsidy policies [3][8] - Key players in the domestic market include Jianghuai Automobile and high-end brands like Geely and Great Wall, while export strategies should focus on established companies like BYD and Changan [3][8] Heavy Truck Insights - In 2025, heavy truck wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.14 million units, with a significant increase in terminal sales and exports [4][35] - The market is expected to see a reduction in older trucks, with a projected elimination of 210,000 units by the end of 2025 [4][35] Bus Insights - The bus market is expected to see a slight increase in sales in 2026, with a focus on replacing older buses that have exceeded their replacement cycle [4][34] - The anticipated sales for 2025 are 38,000 units, with a 25% increase year-on-year, while 2026 is expected to see 40,000 units sold [4][34] Motorcycle Insights - The motorcycle industry is projected to grow significantly, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, driven by both domestic and export markets [5][32] - Large-displacement motorcycles are expected to see a 31% increase in sales, with domestic sales projected at 430,000 units [5][32]

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry in China has undergone significant changes, transitioning from a period of rapid growth to facing challenges due to various factors, including government policies and market competition. Recent trends indicate a structural shift towards larger displacement motorcycles and electric vehicles, presenting new opportunities for growth and export [1][9]. Historical Context - The Chinese motorcycle industry began with the establishment of "Jialing," which marked the first domestically developed motorcycle in 1979. The JH70 model became a cultural icon in the 1980s and 1990s, symbolizing freedom and status [4][5]. - In 1995, Jialing achieved a production milestone of over one million units, earning the title of "King of Chinese Motorcycles." This success spurred the rise of other manufacturers in Chongqing, leading to a competitive landscape in the industry [5][7]. - By 2001, Chinese motorcycles had captured nearly 90% of the Vietnamese market, significantly impacting Japanese brands that previously dominated the region. However, aggressive price competition led to a decline in product quality and consumer trust, resulting in a loss of market share [7][8]. Recent Developments - Since 2019, the domestic motorcycle market has stabilized, with a notable increase in demand for motorcycles under 150cc due to favorable government policies and relaxed restrictions in certain cities. However, the growth of passenger cars and electric two-wheelers has marginalized the commuting role of small-displacement motorcycles [15]. - The popularity of large-displacement motorcycles surged during the pandemic, with a 90.5% increase in sales in 2021, indicating a growing market for recreational riding [15][17]. - The penetration rate of large-displacement motorcycles in China is currently around 6%, significantly lower than in the U.S. (95%) and Europe (60-70%), suggesting substantial growth potential [17]. Export Trends - The export of large-displacement motorcycles has become a trend, with exports increasing from 6.51 thousand units in 2019 to 35.90 thousand units in 2024, reflecting a growing share of the international market [19]. - In the first seven months of 2025, China's motorcycle exports reached 10.44 million units, a 31.29% increase year-on-year, with Latin America and Africa showing significant growth in both volume and value [21]. - The motorcycle industry is leveraging its strengths in product quality and cost-effectiveness to compete in international markets, particularly in Latin America and Africa, while also focusing on the growing demand for electric motorcycles [23].

Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the motorcycle industry, transitioning from an OEM to three major self-owned brands [1][10] - Established in 1993, the company has a history of over 30 years in the motorcycle sector, initially focusing on engine manufacturing and later expanding into complete motorcycle production [10][11] Financial Performance - Revenue has steadily increased from 130.58 billion to 168.22 billion from 2021 to 2024, with a CAGR of 8.8% [20] - The company experienced a profit turning point in 2022, with net profit rising from 3.8 billion to 11.3 billion from 2021 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 42.8% [20][24] - The motorcycle business revenue share increased from 55.6% in 2019 to 76.0% in 2024, indicating a shift towards core business growth [27] Strategic Transformation - In 2021, the company initiated a significant strategic transformation, focusing on the "motorcycle + general machinery" core business and divesting from loss-making operations [2][33] - The company completed a successful equity restructuring in December 2024, with the actual controller changing to Zuo Zongshen, enhancing synergies with Zongshen Group's motorcycle business [2][50][54] Brand Development - The company launched the VOGE brand in 2018, marking its entry into the high-displacement motorcycle market, and has since developed a product matrix that includes VOGE, LONCIN, and BICOSE [1][12] - The VOGE brand has undergone three phases: explosive growth (2018-2021), adjustment (2022), and a return to growth (2023-present), with sales increasing from 0.3 million to 18 million units by 2024 [66][68] Market Outlook - The domestic market for high-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow, with a penetration rate of 7% in 2024, indicating significant room for growth compared to Japan [5] - The company plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the DS800 Rally and CU625, which are anticipated to drive further growth for the VOGE brand [5] Product and Sales Strategy - The company has shifted from an industrial product mindset to a consumer product approach, enhancing its ability to create popular products [3] - By the end of 2024, the company aims to have 990 domestic sales outlets and 1,165 overseas sales outlets, expanding its market reach [3] Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 208.8 billion, 240.2 billion, and 264.2 billion, with corresponding net profits of 18.7 billion, 22.9 billion, and 25.7 billion [6]