今年以来，科技创新作为核心驱动力，引领A股持续上行，市场关注度向科技赛道聚焦。值得注意的是，与火热的科技赛道相比，资金已经开始潜伏滞涨 的板块。自8月中旬起，资金明显流入大消费主题ETF，尤其是食品饮料类ETF。 "金九银十"传统消费旺季即将到来，已调整三年之久的消费板块，能否实现估值与业绩的双重修复？ 本文将从两个维度展开分析：一方面，结合估值、市场表现、盈利能力等核心指标，并与大盘指数、科技与证券板块进行对比，分析大消费板块当前的特 征；另一方面，回溯历史多轮A股趋势性上涨行情，复盘消费板块的轮动规律，并挖掘大消费潜在投资价值与配置机遇。 资金加仓消费主题ETF 8月以来，ETF市场资金流向呈现显著分化。据证券时报·数据宝统计，按照Wind主题行业及基金名称关键词划分，自8月以来（截至8月25日，下同），消 费主题ETF获资金"跑步"进场，净流入金额超34亿元，其中食品饮料主题ETF净流入近30亿元，消费电子主题ETF净流入超4.5亿元，家用电器主题ETF小 幅净流出。 在此之前，消费主题ETF今年前7个月资金整体净流出近7亿元，其中食品饮料主题ETF净流出近12亿元，仅消费电子主题ETF受益于科技赛道利 ...

（原标题：六大维度透视 大消费板块后市可期） 今年以来，科技创新作为核心驱动力，引领A股持续上行，市场关注度向科技赛道聚焦。值得注意的 是，与火热的科技赛道相比，资金已经开始潜伏滞涨的板块。自8月中旬起，资金明显流入大消费主题 ETF，尤其是食品饮料类ETF。 "金九银十"传统消费旺季即将到来，已调整三年之久的消费板块，能否实现估值与业绩的双重修复？ 本文将从两个维度展开分析：一方面，结合估值、市场表现、盈利能力等核心指标，并与大盘指数、科 技与证券板块进行对比，分析大消费板块当前的特征；另一方面，回溯历史多轮A股趋势性上涨行情， 复盘消费板块的轮动规律，并挖掘大消费板块潜在的投资价值与配置机遇。 资金加仓消费主题ETF 8月以来，ETF市场资金流向呈现显著分化。据证券时报·数据宝统计，按照Wind主题行业及基金名称关 键词划分，自8月以来(截至8月25日，下同)，消费主题ETF获资金"跑步"进场，净流入金额超34亿元， 其中食品饮料主题ETF净流入近30亿元，消费电子主题ETF净流入超4.5亿元，家用电器主题ETF小幅净 流出。 在此之前，消费主题ETF今年前7个月资金整体净流出近7亿元，其中食品饮料主题E ...

今年以来，科技创新作为核心驱动力，引领A股持续上行，市场关注度向科技赛道聚焦。值得注意的 是，与火热的科技赛道相比，资金已经开始潜伏滞涨的板块。自8月中旬起，资金明显流入大消费主题 ETF，尤其是食品饮料类ETF。 "金九银十"传统消费旺季即将到来，已调整三年之久的消费板块，能否实现估值与业绩的双重修复？ 本文将从两个维度展开分析：一方面，结合估值、市场表现、盈利能力等核心指标，并与大盘指数、科 技与证券板块进行对比，分析大消费板块当前的特征；另一方面，回溯历史多轮A股趋势性上涨行情， 复盘消费板块的轮动规律，并挖掘大消费板块潜在的投资价值与配置机遇。 资金加仓消费主题ETF 消费指数涨幅远低于市场。8月以来，尽管800消费指数涨幅接近8%，收盘点位创出年内新高，但该指 数年内涨幅不足5%，上证指数年内涨幅接近16%，万得科技大类指数年内涨幅超过38%。从行业看，31 个申万一级行业中，跑赢800消费指数的行业多达26个，食品饮料行业指数年内小幅下跌。 消费板块业绩成长性良好。800消费指数2024年至2027年净利润增幅持续超过沪深300指数（2025年至 2027年取Wind机构一致预测数据），机构一致预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is expected to experience a significant opportunity due to the introduction of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which is seen as a "strong shot in the arm" for the consumption market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Consumer Loan Interest Subsidy Policy - The newly introduced interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate consumer demand and is expected to work in conjunction with broader policies to boost domestic demand, thereby enhancing economic growth [4][6]. - The policy is designed to lower the cost of consumer loans, thereby reducing repayment pressure on residents and increasing their consumption capacity [6][8]. Impact on Consumer Demand - The policy is anticipated to release pent-up consumer demand, particularly benefiting sectors such as automotive and home appliances, as well as service consumption [9][10]. - The subsidy is expected to have a significant short-term impact on large consumer upgrades, while also fostering long-term growth in emerging consumption areas like education and tourism [9][10]. Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector has underperformed in the market, with the CSI Consumer Index down 2.11% year-to-date as of August 14 [11]. - Despite the overall market rally, the consumer sector remains undervalued, with current valuations dropping below 20 times earnings, indicating potential structural investment opportunities [11][12]. Broader Economic Implications - The policy is not only focused on the consumer sector but also aims to rebalance the entire domestic demand chain, potentially benefiting banks and technology service providers as well [13][14]. - Banks are expected to benefit from increased retail lending demand and reduced credit risk, while a resurgence in consumer activity may enhance transaction volumes for payment and local service platforms [15].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with a focus on structural opportunities [6] - The global trade sector remains a critical balance point in the economic landscape, with significant investment opportunities in the short term [3] - The current A-share market offers notable investment value compared to government bond yields, emphasizing the importance of stock selection over index fluctuations [3][6] Market Overview - On June 16, the three major stock indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3369.37 points, down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10096.57 points, down 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index at 2038.7 points, down 0.25% [2] - Sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets, biological breeding, robotics, computing power, new urbanization, liquor, AI applications, and e-commerce showed weakness, while oil and gas stocks continued to strengthen [2] Expert Opinions - Cai Jing from Huixiang Fund believes that the global trade sector will maintain its strategic resource scarcity and has not been fully reflected in the capital market despite a 50% increase in the Baltic Dry Index recently [3] - Deng Yichao from Shenbo Fund highlights that the A-share market currently presents significant investment value relative to government bond yields, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks with stable earnings and cash flow in the medium term [3] Brokerage Insights - China Galaxy Securities indicates that the A-share market is likely to remain in a volatile state, with a focus on structural opportunities and resilience in the domestic economy due to ongoing policy support [6] - Everbright Securities notes that recent geopolitical events have led to increased volatility in global markets, suggesting a return to a range-bound trading pattern for indices [8]