吃喝板块今日（12月25日）午后突然走强，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品饮料ETF华宝（515710）早盘 持续于水面附近震荡，午后突然拉升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.01%，截至收盘，涨0.84%。 成份股方面，白酒大面积上攻。截至收盘，水井坊涨停，金徽酒涨3.08%，酒鬼酒涨3%，贵州茅台、五 粮液、泸州老窖、山西汾酒、洋河股份等白酒龙头集体飘红。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 盛加 九转 图线 工具 份 O | | 食品饮料ETF华宝 1 | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.60 | | | | | 515710[食品饮料ETF华宝] 15:00 价 0.599 涨跌 0.005(0.84%) 均价 0.597 成交量 0 | | | -0.5% | 0.599 | | +0.005 +0.84% | | | | | | | | | INLINEMALUANNANAL | | SSE CNY 15:0 ...

消息面上，消费股年末补涨。据相关媒体报道，在科技股集体到达短期高位后，此前缺席的消费板块也 迎来补涨行情。在一系列旨在扩大内需、提振消费的政策举措陆续出台后，过去一周，消费、零售股迎 来了久违的反弹。 假期催化+冰雪经济：旅游ETF（562510） 提振内需+低估赛道：食品饮料ETF（515170） 电商龙头+新消费：港股消费ETF（513230） 开源证券指出，当前消费行业正迎来政策密集支持的战略机遇期，而食品饮料行业作为必选消费核心赛 道，有望直接受益于内需提振战略。行业、健康化、品质化成为核心趋势，叠加成本端压力缓解，头部 企业盈利韧性凸显。当前消费行业已呈现底部特征，政策红利释放与基本面修复形成共振，当前具备配 置价值。消费筑底政策共振，白酒或至底部重视布局。 东兴证券指出，2025年新消费投资情绪经历了从狂热到谨慎的过程。2026年政策的持续加码有望提振消 费信心，对于新消费领域的投资将从纯粹的短期叙事回归商业模式与盈利壁垒，投资者会倾向寻找那些 真正能够构建稳固的商业模式，盈利模式可持续的公司。该行认为新消费行业会向三个趋势和两个维度 的方向发展。三个趋势是健康化、新实用主义和情绪消费，两个维度是 ...

沪深300主要消费指数预计将连续第三年跑输基准沪深300指数。沪深300主要消费指数今年以来下跌 6.6%，而沪深300指数同期上涨16%。瑞银和光大证券国际指出，零售销售创下除疫情时期以外的最差 表现并且房价持续下行，可能继续抑制内需。今年两次重要的政策会议已将提振内需列为首要任务。 ...

"此外，中国正大力提振内需和吸引外商直接投资，一系列新政相继落地。例如，境外投资者利润再投 资税收抵免、海南自贸港即将启动全岛封关运作、大湾区合作园区的税收优惠与扩大开放措施持续加码 等，均为消费市场带来庞大商机。"普华永道进一步指出。（智通财经记者 田忠方） 普华永道表示，中国消费市场潜力巨大。一方面，随着中高收入群体不断壮大，将更加注重健康和可持 续发展。另一方面，借助科技和人工智能，中国零售商可以加速品类管理和自有品牌的发展。 12月17日，国际四大会计师事务所之一的普华永道发布报告称，中国消费市场展望乐观。其中，预计人 民币将在2026年走强，叠加房地产市场有望回稳，金融市场将提振消费者信心，刺激本地消费。 ...

Consumption - Overall commodity consumption is weak, with automotive sales declining and high-end liquor prices continuing to fall[1] - Seasonal recovery in textile and apparel demand is insufficient compared to the same period last year[1] - Service consumption shows stable population movement, with Shanghai's amusement consumption performing well in the off-season[1] Investment - Investment remains weak, with infrastructure construction slowing down and new home transactions marginally declining[1] - The area of new homes sold in 30 cities continues to decrease, with a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline[14] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has increased to 65.94%[14] Production - Production is expected to improve mainly due to year-end rush work, with coal inventory at ports continuing seasonal replenishment[1] - The operating rate of asphalt has slightly decreased to 27.8%, remaining at historical lows[14] - The operating rate of carbonates has increased, but remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year[23] Trade - The number of ships departing from ports has shown seasonal recovery, with domestic and international freight rates continuing to diverge due to demand differences[1] - Export value has increased, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.3%[20] Prices - Industrial product prices have declined, with the PPI dropping by 0.97%[33] - CPI growth rate has decreased by 0.02 percentage points, with significant price increases in food and healthcare services[33] Liquidity - The US dollar index has fallen by 58 basis points to 98.4, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[36] - The central bank's net currency injection was 4.7 billion yuan in the week of December 13[36]

中信证券研究发文表示，随着中国制造业在全球定价权和经济利润份额的不断提升，资产内在价值亦不 断提升，最终会带来持续的人民币升值。中信证券研究部宏观组预测2026年人民币对美元有望升值到 6.8。为了避免人民币过早、过快单边升值对出口导向型制造业的损伤，超预期的货币宽松是必要的。 超预期的货币宽松可能会带动实际利率下行，并在一定程度上撬动内需（当然这需要财政的配合），而 内需的系统性提振是2026年市场整体打破震荡僵局再上一个台阶的必要条件。在此之前，预计震荡和结 构性机会的轮动是A股的常态，我们依然建议在配置上寻找全球有敞口，且利润率有提升逻辑的方向。 1）资源与传统制造业领域，依旧看好中国在全球有份额优势的行业对应的龙头企业，讲出"供应在内反 内卷，需求在外出利润"的故事，不断提升在全球的定价权，重点关注的行业包括有色、化工和新能源 等。2）企业出海依旧是打开利润和市值空间的重要方式，A股从本国敞口的新兴市场定位向全球敞口 的成熟市场定位过渡也依旧是时代特征，过程中不可避免的会出现与海外风险资产和经济环境共振频率 增加的问题，这是必经之路，重点关注的行业包括工程机械、创新药、电力设备、游戏和军工等。3） 站 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.45% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 0.98% during the midday close on November 19, with personal care products and industrial group sectors showing gains, while water and life sciences tool sectors experienced declines [1] - The Global Express Development Report (2025) indicates that the global express parcel business volume is expected to reach approximately 26.79 billion pieces in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.49%, with business revenue projected at 4.6037 trillion yuan, a 14.05% increase [1] - The Asia-Pacific region maintains a significant advantage in the express parcel business, with a volume exceeding 21 billion pieces, accounting for 78.9% of the global total, and nearly 40% of the business revenue [1] - China's express parcel business volume reached 1.758 billion pieces in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.5%, with business revenue of 1.40335 trillion yuan, reflecting a 13.8% increase [1] - China's express market has maintained its position as the largest globally for eleven consecutive years, achieving a remarkable average of 10 billion pieces per month, showcasing the industry's strong vitality and potential [1] Group 2 - Under the backdrop of ongoing growth stabilization policies, the service consumption and tourism duty-free policies are intensifying, leading to structural opportunities in the consumption chain [2] - Service consumption and online consumption continue to show resilient growth, with policy-driven sectors like tourism and education exhibiting higher elasticity [2] - The reform of duty-free channels, combined with the facilitation of inbound travel, is expected to become a core engine for the next phase of consumption recovery [2] Group 3 - Related popular ETFs include: Tourism ETF (562510) benefiting from holiday catalysts and the ice and snow economy, Food and Beverage ETF (515170) aimed at boosting domestic demand and undervalued sectors, and Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focusing on e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for the Chinese capital market in 2026, driven by a "slow bull" market characterized by the "New Four Bulls" framework, which includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade [2][5]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Growth - In 2026, both fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be accommodative, providing a favorable environment for the capital market and macroeconomic stability [3]. - The anticipated GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is around 5%, with a focus on boosting domestic demand through effective investment and consumption [4]. - The article highlights a significant shift towards investing in human capital, which is expected to stimulate short-term consumption and enhance long-term economic quality [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The "New Four Bulls" framework is expected to drive a slow bull market in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026 [5]. - The "capital inflow bull" indicates favorable macro conditions for attracting global capital back to China, with a shift in asset allocation from physical to financial assets [5]. - The "technology innovation bull" is anticipated to benefit from China's advancements in technology and industrial upgrades, becoming a key investment theme [5]. - The "institutional reform bull" reflects improvements in capital market structures, with a shift from financing-led to investment-led market dynamics [5]. - The "consumption upgrade bull" is linked to the rising consumer market as GDP per capita surpasses $10,000, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [5]. Group 3: Commodity Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic investment value of gold, driven by geopolitical factors and the trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves, suggesting a long-term investment opportunity in the gold market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a "defensive leading, growth under pressure" trend, while the Hong Kong market remains stable, driven by energy and financial stocks, indicating a significant divergence in market dynamics between the two regions [1][2]. Market Overview - A-share indices experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% to 3969.05 points, and over 3700 stocks in the market fell, reflecting a decrease in profitability despite high trading activity with a half-day turnover of 1.23 trillion yuan [2]. - The Hong Kong market showed relative resilience, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.20% to 26210.51 points, supported by energy and financial sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.20% due to divergence within tech stocks [2]. Sector Analysis - In the A-share market, defensive sectors are highlighted, with the banking sector rising 2.04% driven by stable interest margins and resilient earnings, making it a preferred choice for long-term capital allocation [3]. - The coal sector continued its strong performance with a 22.83% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit, supported by OPEC+ production pause, enhancing energy price expectations [3]. - The tourism and hotel sector showed positive movement due to expectations of consumption subsidies and the winter travel peak [3]. - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector fell 2.24%, impacted by weakened global industrial demand and a stronger dollar, while the power equipment sector dropped 1.83% due to ongoing price declines in storage and photovoltaic components [3]. - In the Hong Kong market, the energy sector, particularly oil stocks, continued to rise, with Morgan Stanley raising the short-term target price for Brent crude oil to $60 per barrel [3]. - The financial sector, particularly domestic banks, showed strong performance with better-than-expected profit growth in Q3, while tech stocks displayed mixed results, with some AI applications benefiting from commercialization [3]. Investment Recommendations - The current market is at a crossroads of "policy window" and "earnings verification," suggesting a balanced layout across technology growth, cyclical resources, and policy-driven sectors [4]. - Focus on technology growth sectors with performance certainty and industry catalysts, particularly in AI and high-end manufacturing [4]. - For cyclical and resource sectors, look for opportunities in profit recovery, especially in gold and copper, while benefiting from "de-involution" policies in the chemical sector [4]. - Policy-driven opportunities should align with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and domestic demand stimulation, particularly in AI, high-end manufacturing, and consumer goods [5]. - Overall, the market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, recommending a core allocation in "banking + energy" alongside technology growth and policy-sensitive sectors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty arising from the recent US-China talks, particularly concerning the technology sector and the potential impact on companies like NVIDIA, while highlighting the resilience of certain domestic sectors such as liquor and renewable energy amidst these geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Despite a 2.51% drop in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, liquor stocks experienced a collective rise, with notable increases such as Gujing Gongjiu up nearly 6% and other major brands like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu also seeing gains [1]. - The liquor sector index rose by 2.02%, indicating strong investor interest in this segment despite broader market concerns [2]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Investors are shifting focus towards "old economy stocks" like liquor, which are perceived as lower risk in the current market environment characterized by high valuations in other sectors [3]. - The government’s emphasis on boosting domestic demand in its 2025 work report is expected to create new momentum in the consumption sector, benefiting industries like liquor [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The liquor industry has likely reached its lowest point in terms of market sentiment, with pessimistic expectations already priced in, suggesting potential for recovery and valuation improvement [3]. - The long-term demand for liquor remains strong due to its social and cultural significance, supported by established brands with deep competitive advantages [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors interested in the liquor sector can consider index funds like the China Securities Liquor Index Fund to mitigate individual stock risks, with a suggested investment of 1000 yuan [4].