"人工智能教父"杰弗里·辛顿警告称，科技巨头"正押注人工智能将取代大量劳动力"，但他补充道，任何对长期科技预 测抱有信心的人都是在自欺欺人。图片来源：GEOFF ROBINS/AFP via Getty Images 人工智能的长期影响是硅谷争论最激烈的话题之一。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）预测， 所有工作都会发生改变，并催生每周四天工作制。其他科技巨头的预判更为激进：比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）表示，人类或许很快就无需处理"绝大多数事务"，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）认为，在"不到20 年内"，绝大多数人甚至将彻底告别工作。 被誉为"人工智能教父"的英国计算机科学家杰弗里·辛顿（Geoffrey Hinton）表示，虽然这些预测听起来 颇为偏激，却绝非空穴来风，甚至极有可能成为现实。他警告称，这场变革可能引发全面经济重组，导 致数百万劳动者被时代淘汰。 "在很多人看来，人工智能极有可能引发大规模失业。"辛顿近期在乔治敦大学与佛蒙特州独立参议员伯 尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）的对话中表示。 "若问及这些机构投入数据中心和芯片的约万亿美元从何而来……其中一个主要资 ...

近日，中国劳动和社会保障科学研究院基于我国300个城市的招聘数据监测显示，2025年1—8月，以算法工程师、人工智能训练师、数据分析师等为代表的 人工智能相关岗位需求同比增速超过100%；而销售、行政、财务、法务等岗位的需求同比下降10%—30%。 澳洲会计师公会华南区委员会会长、澳洲资深注册会计师陈建峰在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示："AI对人的替代是有边界的。" "涉及专业判断、战略决策与人际协作的工作更难被AI替代。"陈建峰表示，这类工作需要在具体商业场景中灵活运用会计准则，还要具备风险预判、跨部门 沟通和战略规划能力。"例如收入确认、资产减值评估等复杂决策，以及为业务部门提供定制化财务支持等任务。" 他强调，财务人员的职业判断、伦理责任与战略思维，是AI最难以取代的核心能力。 澳洲会计师公会发布的《2025年商业科技应用调查》显示，受AI应用普及影响，32%的受访者表示过去12个月企业减少招聘初级财会人员；与此同时，18% 的企业正在为财务部门积极扩招具备AI专业素养的人才。兼具财务专业技能与数字化能力的复合型人才，将更加契合数字化时代的发展需求。 即便AI具备替代部分岗位的能力，但总体来看并不会 ...

Core Insights - Jefferies' chief market strategist David Zervos warns that the Federal Reserve may underestimate the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market [1][3] - The current economic landscape shows a complex scenario of strong growth alongside employment concerns, presenting unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's policy-making [3] Economic Growth and Employment - Zervos indicates that the U.S. economy may be experiencing significant growth, yet job growth is not meeting expectations, creating a paradox that complicates monetary policy [3] - He highlights that if economic growth reaches 3.5% to 4% while unemployment continues to rise, it would severely test the current monetary policy framework [3] Federal Reserve's Focus - Zervos emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should pay more attention to labor market changes rather than overly focusing on inflation issues [3] - He argues that the Fed needs to balance its dual mandate of achieving full employment while maintaining price stability, a task made increasingly difficult by rapid advancements in AI technology [3] AI's Impact on Employment - Experts in the AI field have indicated that the U.S. job market may face a loss of 3 to 5 million jobs within the next three to four years, potentially occurring faster than anticipated [6] - Since the emergence of ChatGPT in 2023, warnings about AI leading to mass unemployment have intensified, with recent technological developments reinforcing these concerns [6] AI Performance and Economic Indicators - OpenAI's recent test results show that its latest model, GPT-5, and competitor Anthropic's Claude Opus are nearing the work quality of industry experts, with GPT-5's performance nearly tripling compared to the previous model released fifteen months ago [8] - The rapid advancement of AI technology is redefining the nature of work and poses new challenges to traditional economic indicators and policy tools [8]