Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In October, the domestic soybean market is in the peak season of new - crop harvest and listing, with a temporary increase in supply. The demand is in the transition stage of turning prosperous. The supply - side increase is more obvious, and the price is under pressure. However, the market sentiment is not pessimistic, and the price decline space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the risks of price decline caused by the exit of long - position funds due to the cooling of Sino - US trade policy game [3][7][8]. - In the short - term, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has driven up the futures price, and the price of Northeast China's soybean has stopped falling. But the new - crop supply factor will lead to price decline without policy intervention. In the long - term, the new - crop supply will be sufficient throughout the fourth - quarter market, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts may show a downward - trending shock. The far - month contracts have the potential to rise after reaching the bottom [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - demand situation**: In October, the new - crop soybeans are in the peak harvest and listing season, with a significant increase in supply. The demand is in the transition stage of turning prosperous, and the supply - side is more dominant, resulting in price pressure [3]. - **Trading logic**: In the short - term, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation and the stable spot sentiment in Northeast China have driven up the price. But the new - crop supply may lead to price decline. In the long - term, the new - crop supply will be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and the far - month contracts have potential [7]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The short - selling trend has changed, and the price faces pressure from medium - and long - term moving averages [8]. - **Strategy views**: For those with low - price inventory, consider short - selling the 01 contract on rallies. For planting entities, the 2511 short - hedging strategy should be closed when selling the spot [8]. - **Basis, spread and hedging arbitrage strategy**: During the new - crop listing period, the spot and futures prices may fall simultaneously. The spot price is at the bottom - grinding stage. The near - month contracts are more affected by the new - crop listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policy purchase and improved demand. Pay attention to the spread between near - and far - month contracts and consider the strategy of selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction for the 01 contract**: The price range is predicted to be 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.84% and a historical percentile of 15.3% [8]. - **Risk strategy**: For inventory management, planting entities can lock in profits by short - selling futures or selling call options. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has led to some funds going long [10]. - **Negative information**: In October, the new - crop soybeans in Northeast China are in the peak listing season, putting pressure on the price. The quality and price of soybeans in different regions vary. Two domestic soybean auctions have failed [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - On the 21st, Sinograin will hold a domestic soybean auction with a trading volume of 40,422 tons. Pay attention to the possible turning point of Sino - US trade situation, the trend of the US government shutdown, and the release of the US Department of Agriculture's October supply - demand report [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and fund movement**: The soybean price has rebounded for the second consecutive week. In October, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has stimulated the price to rise. The main 01 contract has seen significant trading volume increase, with a gain of over 2% and closing at 4028 yuan. The registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 7290 lots, and the positions and trading volume have increased [11]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The spot price of domestic soybeans has stopped falling, while the futures price is relatively strong, and the basis has weakened. The 11 - contract is relatively weak, and the overall spread change is not obvious [18][20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Planting end**: The price of 39 - protein clean soybeans in Heilongjiang has rebounded, and the planting cost has decreased, resulting in increased planting profits. The grassroots may have a certain degree of reluctance to sell, which may prolong the price - bottoming time [27]. - **Mid - stream**: The willingness of trading enterprises to store soybeans has increased, but the profit is uncertain [27]. - **Down - stream**: The downstream demand is active, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. High - protein soybeans are favored, and the price is firm. The crushing profit has rebounded, and oil mills may increase their purchase volume [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - side and Deduction - **Overall supply**: In October - November, the supply will reach its peak, and the low point of the spot - futures price may form during this period. The price performance may be relatively mild due to factors such as low selling willingness and increased inventory - holding willingness of the mid - and down - stream [30]. - **Supply structure**: Affected by the promotion of high - oil varieties, the proportion of medium - and low - protein soybeans may increase. High - protein soybeans have mid - term competitiveness, and high - oil soybeans depend on the purchase volume of oil mills [30]. 5.2 Demand - side and Deduction - **Demand factors**: In October, the edible consumption market is turning from off - season to peak season, and the crushing demand may increase when the raw material price falls. The policy may activate the domestic soybean crushing demand, but there is great uncertainty [30]. - **Market outlook**: The edible market is the basic demand for soybeans, and the crushing market is the major variable. The overall price will fluctuate, and pay attention to the formation of the fourth - quarter low point and the price - decline risk caused by Sino - US economic and trade situation changes [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market has limited short - term bullish factors and is expected to trade in a narrow range. The price of the M2601 contract is likely to rise slightly, but the short - term upward strength is limited. It is recommended to cautiously go long on M2601 in the short term, and spot enterprises can price the 11 - 1 January basis at low points [8]. - The oil market has a mixed fundamental situation, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long - term, it is advisable to take a bullish view on oils. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to specific price ranges [82]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of October 18, the East China spot price was 2,870 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 + 0 yuan/ton, with the basis price up 20 yuan/ton. The US soybean price fluctuated around 1,000 cents/bushel, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by cost [8][10]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed due to the US government shutdown, with a downward - adjustment expectation for yield. In September, the US soybean planting area was raised to 81.1 million acres, the yield was lowered to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the ending stocks were raised to 300 million bushels. Brazil's sowing progress as of October 16 was 23.2%, higher than 17.83% in the same period last year. China's soybean arrivals in October were around 8.5 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume was over 9 million tons. In November, arrivals are expected to drop to around 8 million tons [8]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with a year - on - year increase of over 7%. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased year - on - year. It is expected that the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter will increase by over 5% year - on - year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills rose to 7.6576 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons [8]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped to 1,135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. The Brazilian and US soybean premium quotes are stable. The calculated domestic soybean meal cost is 2,990 yuan/ton for US Gulf soybeans and 3,160 yuan/ton for Brazilian soybeans [8]. 2. Oils 2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of October 17, the palm oil 01 contract dropped 130 yuan/ton to 9,308 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract dropped 46 yuan/ton to 8,256 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract dropped 200 yuan/ton to 9,861 yuan/ton. The spot prices of corresponding oils also decreased to varying degrees [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB September report showed an inventory build - up, which was bearish. In October, the production may continue to increase, but the export data was strong. The inventory build - up in Malaysia in October is expected to be limited, and then it will enter the traditional production - reduction season. In China, the palm oil inventory as of October 10 was 547,600 tons, and the arrivals in October - November are estimated to be 230,000 and 190,000 tons respectively [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The potential China - US summit and high domestic US soybean crushing volume in September boosted the US soybean price, but there are still many bearish factors. In China, the soybean arrivals in September were over 12 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory continued to build up to 1.2651 million tons as of the week of October 10. The supply gap after November has been narrowed [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The visit of the Canadian foreign minister to China led to an expectation of eased China - Canada relations and resumed rapeseed imports, which short - term suppressed the domestic rapeseed oil price. However, there is a supply gap before the large - scale import of Australian and Russian rapeseed oils in November [82].