Report Overview - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Soybeans - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean futures rebounded but was blocked, with prices fluctuating weakly. The opening price was 4,146 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,160 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,119 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day. The trading volume was 102,711 lots, the open interest was 122,210 lots, and the daily increase in positions was -6,447 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Increase in Positions (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,131 | -21 | -0.51% | 102,711 | 122,210 | -6,447 | 0.99% | | A2511 | 4,118 | -20 | -0.48% | 39,504 | 120,352 | 678 | 0.84% | | A2601 | 4,106 | -19 | -0.46% | 15,463 | 34,013 | 227 | 0.87% | | A2603 | 4,096 | -20 | -0.49% | 4,469 | 23,402 | -202 | 0.83% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today's soybean basis was -111 yuan/ton, and the basis has strengthened recently. Today's total registered soybean warehouse receipts were 13,557 lots, a decrease of 4 lots from the previous trading day [4]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average domestic soybean price was 4,027 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.60%. In recent days, the domestic soybean spot price has been stable with a slight increase. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.8393 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.07%. Currently, the inventory accumulation rate of port soybeans has slowed down [6][9]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's near-month landed duty-paid prices of imported soybeans showed a weak trend. Today, the near-month landed duty-paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,770.72 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,896.47 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,725.15 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a narrow - range fluctuating trend [10].

Core Insights - The USDA drought report indicates a continued decrease in the area affected by drought for U.S. soybeans, currently at historically low levels, which may impact soybean prices [1] Group 1 - The area of U.S. soybeans affected by drought is decreasing [1] - Current drought-affected areas are at historically low levels for this time of year [1] - Potential implications for soybean prices due to these drought conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean No. 1, in the context of a weak supply - demand pattern, it is expected to trade in a range, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [6]. - For soybean No. 2, due to the seasonal supply glut in South America, it is under pressure to move, with a multi - and short - factors intertwined situation and an expected volatile movement [7]. - For soybean meal, given the ample supply, it is expected to trade weakly in a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [8]. - For soybean oil, it is likely to maintain a weakly volatile trend, and the short - term strategy is to stay on the sidelines [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract fell 1.32% to close at 4117 yuan/ton. In the future, domestic soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to a weak supply - demand balance [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract declined 0.34% to 3559 yuan/ton. The market focuses on US soybean planting weather, and South American supply is seasonally abundant, putting pressure on prices [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2968 yuan/ton. With increasing soybean arrivals and rising inventory, it is expected to trade weakly [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract dropped 1.75% to 7638 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing, and it is expected to trade weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 prices fell, soybean meal prices rose, and soybean oil prices declined this week [11][18][24]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal widened, while that of soybean oil narrowed [30][33]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 futures increased, and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean meal, both the net position and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean oil, both the net position and warehouse receipts increased [42][49][56]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis increased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis narrowed; the spot price of soybean oil decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [62][70][76]. - **Imported Bean Premium and Cost Changes**: The FOB premiums of US, Argentine, and Brazilian soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans decreased [80][86]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Supply - Side Changes**: The expected production of US soybeans in the new year decreased, and inventory decreased; the expected production of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased; the expected production of Argentine soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased [101][106][111]. - **Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean planting progress was fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress exceeded 80% [115]. - **Export - Related Changes**: US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and export sales volume increased; Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase [121][126]. 3.3.2 Domestic Industry - **Inventory Changes**: The soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, soybean meal inventory increased, and soybean oil inventory increased month - on - month [130][134][138]. - **Oil Mill Operation**: The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [142]. - **Import and Arrival Volume**: The month - on - month import volume of soybeans in April increased, and the expected arrival volume of soybeans in May increased month - on - month [148][152]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of domestic soybeans decreased, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market increased [156]. 3.3.3 Substitute Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil rose; the price of rapeseed meal rose, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread decreased; the oil - meal ratio decreased [162][170][175]. - **Spread Changes**: The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, and the rapeseed - soybean spread widened [166]. 3.3.4 Transaction Volume - The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil increased [181]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Price and Profit Changes**: The price of live pigs rose, and the price of piglets fell; the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry decreased [186][192]. - **Demand - Side Changes**: The monthly output of feed decreased month - on - month; the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs increased month - on - month; the domestic consumption of Chinese soybeans and soybean oil increased in the 2024/25 year [196][201][205]. 3.5 Options Market Based on the trend of soybean meal, which is expected to trade weakly in a range, one can consider buying at - the - money put options [213].

Group 1 - Argentina's soybean production forecast has been significantly raised, indicating a potential increase in market supply [1] - The soybean harvesting progress has exceeded expectations, which may further influence market dynamics [1] - The changes in supply and demand dynamics could impact soybean price trends moving forward [1]

Core Insights - The expectation for increased demand for U.S. soybeans has not materialized, leading to a significant drop in Brazil's soybean export premiums [1] - The price trajectory of soybeans is under scrutiny due to these developments in demand and export pricing [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean demand expectations have fallen short, impacting market dynamics [1] - Brazil's soybean export premiums have decreased sharply, indicating a shift in competitive pricing [1] - The overall soybean price trends are being closely monitored in light of these changes [1]