1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, soybeans defied the pattern of being more likely to fall than rise, with the futures main contract 01 rising over 5% and spot prices increasing to varying degrees. Multiple factors contributed to this, and the market fundamentals have shifted, with new - season soybeans potentially ending the bottom - probing process and later showing a bottom - confirmation and oscillating upward trend [1]. - In the long run, domestic soybean prices may break out of the bottom - range oscillation, and the annual price center of gravity may shift upward significantly [6]. - The supply of medium - and high - protein soybeans will decline, and the rigid edible consumption is expected to continuously support the prices of relevant soybean sources, with the feature of high - quality at high - price persisting until the next supply season [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Multiple factors such as the sellers' price - holding, southern产区's reduced production, and rigid repayment demand led to the anti - seasonal rise of soybeans in October. The increased acquisition of Northeast soybeans due to southern产区's reduced production was the core driving force [1]. - In the short term, beware of the risk of selling pressure emerging due to price stagnation, especially near the end of the year. The resumption of US soybean imports will suppress the sentiment of soybean price increases, especially for medium - and low - protein soybeans [5]. - The new - season supply pressure is dispersed, and the import soybean gap and arrival volume at the end of the fourth quarter and early next year will have a key impact on the consumption of domestic medium - and low - protein soybeans [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Bullish trend; **Technical View**: Pay attention to short - term pull - back confirmation and focus on the 20 - day moving average support; **Strategy View**: Overall, wait and see, wait for the pull - back confirmation, and pay attention to low - price inventory hedging at high prices in the short term [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: The weekly spot - futures market prices stagnated, and the basis of 39 - protein soybeans was neutral. It is recommended to wait and see. **Spread Strategy**: The difference between near - and far - month contracts changed insignificantly. Consider selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [6]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Hold short - term hedging for contract 01 above 4100; Wait for the price to fall before making forward purchases [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast for Contract 01**: 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.36% and a historical percentile of 25.9% [6]. - **Risk Strategy**: For inventory management of growers, when the selling pressure is high, short - sell soybean futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio above 4100; sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% hedging ratio. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter before making forward purchases [6]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The spot market sentiment was stable, and prices remained high but stagnated. There were no auction arrangements this week [8]. - **Negative Information**: The transaction volume of state - reserve auctions was limited, and the market demand focused on high - protein soybeans. The resumption of US soybean imports due to Sino - US negotiations will be negative for domestic medium - and low - protein soybean prices [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The import rhythm of US soybeans will become clearer. Observe whether selling pressure emerges actively after the spot price stagnates [7][9]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the last week of October, soybean prices stagnated at a high level, with a weekly decline of - 0.05%, forming a doji candlestick. Trading volume and open interest remained high, and the registered warehouse receipts were 7238 lots [9]. - **Basis Structure**: During the week, the spot - futures prices of domestic soybeans consolidated at a high level after a rebound, and the basis changed little. **Spread Structure**: Contract 11 was weak, while contract 01 was strong, and the overall spread change was insignificant [17][19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the price of 39 - protein clean grains oscillated at 2 yuan per catty, and the planting profit increased significantly compared to the previous year. Mid - stream trading enterprises' willingness to store grains increased, but the profit of building warehouses and storing grains was uncertain. Down - stream demand was active, high - protein soybeans were in short supply, and prices were firm. The crushing profit changed slightly, and oil mills' acquisition was at a moderate level [29]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply of high - protein soybeans in the new season will decrease due to the increase in high - oil soybean area in the Northeast and the reduced production in the South. It will take about 10 months until the next effective supply, and the supply of high - protein soybeans will gradually tighten. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans will increase. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the change in oil mills' acquisition intensity caused by soybean meal price fluctuations [33][34]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - In the last week of October, the edible consumption market of domestic soybeans turned from off - season to peak season, with demand mainly for high - protein soybeans. Near the end of the year, downstream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the prices of high - quality soybeans. The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the performance of soybean meal and soybean oil prices. Pay attention to the arrival quantity in December and soybean meal prices to see if the crushing demand can have a phased increase similar to last year [34].

Core Insights - The domestic soybean prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, while international soybean prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations [1][2]. Domestic Market Analysis - After the National Day holiday, the new season soybeans have been concentrated in the market, leading to an increase in supply [1][2]. - The high cost of imported soybeans has facilitated smooth transactions for domestic soybeans, resulting in stable prices [1][2]. International Market Analysis - The uncertainty surrounding the China-U.S. trade negotiations is impacting the international market [1][2]. - There is an expectation of abundant soybean production in the U.S., which reinforces the outlook for low-level fluctuations in international soybean prices [1][2].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【农业农村部：短期内国产大豆价格稳，国际大豆价低位震荡】10月24日，农业农村部发布农产品供需 形势分析月报。短期内，国产大豆价格以稳为主，国际大豆价格低位震荡。国内市场，国庆节后新季大 豆集中上市，市场供应增加。受进口大豆成本较高带动，国产大豆购销顺畅，价格基本稳定。国际市 场，中美贸易谈判前景不确定，美豆丰产预期强化。预计国际大豆价格将维持低位震荡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The southern soybean market is currently clearing old stocks while awaiting the new crop, leading to a stable yet weakening price trend. The upcoming supply increase from the new harvest is expected to exert pressure on prices, but recent rainfall may impact the timing and quality of the new beans, which requires close monitoring [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of September 29, soybean prices in the Huai Bei region of Anhui were stable at 2.65-2.75 yuan per jin, with trade activity subdued as merchants have largely stopped purchasing old stocks [1]. - The demand side remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchases, with little pre-holiday stocking observed as most players await the new crop [1][3]. Group 2: New Crop Insights - New soybeans have started to enter the market in small batches since late September, particularly in regions like Su Bei and Nan Tong, but the overall supply remains insufficient to meet market demand [3]. - Recent concentrated rainfall has delayed the listing of new beans in areas like Henan, with approximately 20% of the new crop reported to have quality issues, such as black spots on the beans [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The overall expectation is for soybean prices in the southern region to remain stable or slightly decline in early October due to the pressure from the new crop supply, although recent rainfall may provide some support to price levels by creating uncertainty around the new crop's quality and timing [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural Rural Ministry's September supply - demand report predicts China's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 21.09 million tons. With the new - season harvest, the supply is abundant, pressuring the spot and futures prices. Although the futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, the future price pressure remains significant [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and potential acquisition policies, showing a high potential for a bottom - out and rebound. The mid - and downstream acquisition entities can gradually build forward inventories during the price bottoming and grinding process in the fourth quarter [5]. - The resumption of auctions has a diminishing impact on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the auction results on the 29th [2][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The new - season harvest has led to an abundant supply, weakening the spot and futures prices. The futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, but the 11 - contract's rebound may be difficult to sustain. The price in the Heilongjiang main production area has declined, and further pressure is expected [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and acquisition policies. The uncertainty of US soybean imports may have a neutral - to - positive impact on domestic soybean pressing demand [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay. New orders can consider short - selling on rebounds. The 2511 selling hedging strategy for planting entities can be held until the spot grain is sold. The previously sold call option with the underlying a2511 - C - 4050 can also be held [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: During the new - season listing period, there is no recommended basis strategy. The near - month contracts are expected to be more affected by the concentrated listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policies and improved demand. Attention should be paid to the calendar spread performance [10][11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for the 11 - contract of soybeans in the current month is 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting on autumn grain acquisition, emphasizing the importance of maintaining market stability. Short - covering led to a continuous rebound in the market [13]. - **Negative Information**: The new - season supply pressure, the decline in new - grain quotes, and the continuation of auction activities are negative factors for the price [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - During the National Day holiday, pay attention to the price trends in the soybean - producing areas as the harvest progresses. Also, focus on the auction results on the 29th [13]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - This week, the soybean futures market showed a significant rebound after hitting a new low. The main 11 - contract rose 31 yuan/ton or 0.79% this week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest decreased substantially. The registered warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 7578 lots. The short - term upward trend is limited, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [13]. - The basis has returned, but its reference value is limited at this stage. The near - month contracts performed slightly stronger than the far - month contracts this week [18][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The new - season soybean price has started low and continued to decline. Considering the reduced planting cost and high - yield expectations, the price is expected to remain under pressure during the peak listing period. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the profit situation is acceptable [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In October, the supply of domestic soybeans will reach a peak. The resumption of auctions increases the supply pressure. The supply pressure may be alleviated by acquisition policies, but the potential short - selling sentiment in the grassroots may delay the price decline [30]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of high - oil soybean planting and the matching between the upstream and downstream industries. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - In October, the edible consumption market may turn from weak to strong. The pressing demand may increase when the raw material price drops. Policy support may be provided to activate domestic soybean pressing demand, but this has high uncertainty [30]. - The lack of US soybean supply provides sales opportunities for domestic soybeans. The edible market is the basic demand, while the pressing market is the major variable in demand [31].

Group 1 - The price of soybean is weak due to increased market supply pressure from policy-driven auction sales and poor demand performance [1] - The price difference between soybean and soybean meal is currently low, indicating a consolidation phase [1] - Import soybeans are performing strongly, supported by U.S. biodiesel policies that boost the soybean and soybean oil markets [1] Group 2 - China's soybean procurement schedule for November is low, with expectations of tighter supply in Q1 next year, necessitating attention to U.S. soybean exports to China [1] - Domestic soybeans need to be monitored for weather, policy changes, and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [1] - Global oilseed strength driven by biodiesel policies is leading to increased soybean crushing, indicating a shift towards oil extraction [1] Group 3 - In Q4 and Q1 next year, the U.S. tariff policy is affecting Brazilian soybean sales, which are over 80%, despite high premiums [1] - The expected soybean arrival volume from August to October is 10 million tons, indicating sufficient supply for Q4, but potential shortages in Q1 next year [1] - Weather conditions in major U.S. soybean-producing areas are expected to be slightly cooler with less rainfall, posing challenges for new crop growth [1] Group 4 - Uncertainties in China-U.S. trade may lead to a continued divergence between strong external oil prices and weak meal prices, reducing the correlation between domestic soybean meal and U.S. soybeans [1] - If no trade agreement is reached by year-end, the soybean shortfall in Q4 and Q1 next year could strengthen soybean meal prices, leading to a cautious bullish outlook for soybean meal in the medium to long term [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Soybeans - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean futures rebounded but was blocked, with prices fluctuating weakly. The opening price was 4,146 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,160 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,119 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day. The trading volume was 102,711 lots, the open interest was 122,210 lots, and the daily increase in positions was -6,447 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Increase in Positions (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,131 | -21 | -0.51% | 102,711 | 122,210 | -6,447 | 0.99% | | A2511 | 4,118 | -20 | -0.48% | 39,504 | 120,352 | 678 | 0.84% | | A2601 | 4,106 | -19 | -0.46% | 15,463 | 34,013 | 227 | 0.87% | | A2603 | 4,096 | -20 | -0.49% | 4,469 | 23,402 | -202 | 0.83% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today's soybean basis was -111 yuan/ton, and the basis has strengthened recently. Today's total registered soybean warehouse receipts were 13,557 lots, a decrease of 4 lots from the previous trading day [4]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average domestic soybean price was 4,027 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.60%. In recent days, the domestic soybean spot price has been stable with a slight increase. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.8393 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.07%. Currently, the inventory accumulation rate of port soybeans has slowed down [6][9]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's near-month landed duty-paid prices of imported soybeans showed a weak trend. Today, the near-month landed duty-paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,770.72 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,896.47 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,725.15 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a narrow - range fluctuating trend [10].

Core Insights - The USDA drought report indicates a continued decrease in the area affected by drought for U.S. soybeans, currently at historically low levels, which may impact soybean prices [1] Group 1 - The area of U.S. soybeans affected by drought is decreasing [1] - Current drought-affected areas are at historically low levels for this time of year [1] - Potential implications for soybean prices due to these drought conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean No. 1, in the context of a weak supply - demand pattern, it is expected to trade in a range, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [6]. - For soybean No. 2, due to the seasonal supply glut in South America, it is under pressure to move, with a multi - and short - factors intertwined situation and an expected volatile movement [7]. - For soybean meal, given the ample supply, it is expected to trade weakly in a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [8]. - For soybean oil, it is likely to maintain a weakly volatile trend, and the short - term strategy is to stay on the sidelines [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract fell 1.32% to close at 4117 yuan/ton. In the future, domestic soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to a weak supply - demand balance [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract declined 0.34% to 3559 yuan/ton. The market focuses on US soybean planting weather, and South American supply is seasonally abundant, putting pressure on prices [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2968 yuan/ton. With increasing soybean arrivals and rising inventory, it is expected to trade weakly [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract dropped 1.75% to 7638 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing, and it is expected to trade weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 prices fell, soybean meal prices rose, and soybean oil prices declined this week [11][18][24]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal widened, while that of soybean oil narrowed [30][33]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 futures increased, and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean meal, both the net position and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean oil, both the net position and warehouse receipts increased [42][49][56]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis increased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis narrowed; the spot price of soybean oil decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [62][70][76]. - **Imported Bean Premium and Cost Changes**: The FOB premiums of US, Argentine, and Brazilian soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans decreased [80][86]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Supply - Side Changes**: The expected production of US soybeans in the new year decreased, and inventory decreased; the expected production of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased; the expected production of Argentine soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased [101][106][111]. - **Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean planting progress was fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress exceeded 80% [115]. - **Export - Related Changes**: US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and export sales volume increased; Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase [121][126]. 3.3.2 Domestic Industry - **Inventory Changes**: The soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, soybean meal inventory increased, and soybean oil inventory increased month - on - month [130][134][138]. - **Oil Mill Operation**: The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [142]. - **Import and Arrival Volume**: The month - on - month import volume of soybeans in April increased, and the expected arrival volume of soybeans in May increased month - on - month [148][152]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of domestic soybeans decreased, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market increased [156]. 3.3.3 Substitute Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil rose; the price of rapeseed meal rose, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread decreased; the oil - meal ratio decreased [162][170][175]. - **Spread Changes**: The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, and the rapeseed - soybean spread widened [166]. 3.3.4 Transaction Volume - The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil increased [181]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Price and Profit Changes**: The price of live pigs rose, and the price of piglets fell; the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry decreased [186][192]. - **Demand - Side Changes**: The monthly output of feed decreased month - on - month; the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs increased month - on - month; the domestic consumption of Chinese soybeans and soybean oil increased in the 2024/25 year [196][201][205]. 3.5 Options Market Based on the trend of soybean meal, which is expected to trade weakly in a range, one can consider buying at - the - money put options [213].

Group 1 - Argentina's soybean production forecast has been significantly raised, indicating a potential increase in market supply [1] - The soybean harvesting progress has exceeded expectations, which may further influence market dynamics [1] - The changes in supply and demand dynamics could impact soybean price trends moving forward [1]