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南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西收获加速,阿根廷进入收获期
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 01:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the soybean harvest situation and weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina. In Brazil, the national soybean harvest progress is 59.2%, approaching the end. However, different states face various issues. In Argentina, recent rainfall has avoided potential yield losses, and the overall yield forecast remains at 48.5 million tons [1][18][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Brazil - **Harvest Progress**: The national soybean harvest progress is 59.2%, with Mato Grosso (MT) nearly completed and good product quality. But Rio Grande do Sul (RS) has lower - than - expected yields, and states like Parana (PR), Goias (GO), and Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) have slow harvest progress due to continuous or frequent rainfall, leading to problems such as grain germination, quality decline, and increased diseases [1][18] - **Future Weather Impact**: Mato Grosso (MT) and Goias (GO) are expected to have good rainfall, beneficial for maintaining soil moisture and second - season crops but having no significant impact on soybean harvest. Rainfall will mainly occur in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and the eastern part of Santa Catarina (SC). Low soil humidity and high temperatures may limit the growth of dry - land crops in these three states. In the next week, the rainfall pattern will show regional differences, with rainfall in the central - west and north benefiting second - season crops but increasing the harvest pressure in southern soybean - producing areas, while the drought in some northeastern regions is expected to continue [1][19] 3.2 Argentina - **Yield and Crop Condition**: The soybean - growing areas received much - needed rainfall last week, avoiding potential yield losses. The proportion of crops with "suitable/optimal" moisture content increased by 7 percentage points compared to the previous week, and the proportion of crops in "normal/excellent" condition is 78.5%. The national yield forecast remains at 48.5 million tons. Early - sown soybeans are approaching harvest, with expected good yields (about 35.9 quintals per hectare in the northern core area and about 37.9 quintals per hectare in the southern core area) [2][38] 3.3 International Soybean Annual Focus Points - Different months have different key concerns, including US soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, Chinese imports, US and Chinese sowing areas, and US soybean yield levels [56] 3.4 Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - The growth cycle includes the planting period, flowering period, growth period, and harvest period. Each period has specific temperature, moisture requirements, and disaster risks [64]
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西降雨不均收获放缓,阿根廷进入生长关键期
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 11:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the soybean weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, including the impact of rainfall on soybean harvest and growth, and the market's different expectations for soybean production in Brazil [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - **Harvest Progress**: The 2025/26 soybean harvest progress in Brazil is 32.3%, with 31.2% still in the filling stage. In Mato Grosso, the harvest progress is 78.34%, lower than 82.30% in the same period last year, mainly due to frequent rainfall [1][24] - **Regional Impact**: In Goiás, excessive rainfall affects grain quality; in Mato Grosso do Sul, rainfall suspends harvest in some cities but benefits filling soybeans; in Minas Gerais, excessive rainfall promotes fungal diseases; in Paraná, dry weather helps crop maturity but affects the production potential of filling plots; in Rio Grande do Sul, irregular and light rainfall is insufficient for crop needs [1][25] - **Production Expectations**: Market expectations for Brazilian soybean production vary. Safra&Mercado Consulting Company lowers the production by 1.5 million tons to 177.7 million tons, while Rabobank raises it by 2 million tons to 181 million tons. USDA's NDVI reading shows that the production potential has significantly declined [1][25] - **Future Forecast**: In the next 15 days, the rainfall distribution in Brazil is uneven, and the southern region still lacks rainfall [1][25] Argentina - **Crop Conditions**: The rainfall for soybean crops is good. The proportion of crops in good condition or above is 71%, a 4% week-on-week decrease but still higher than in previous years. The proportion of crops with suitable moisture or above is 73%, a 7% week-on-week increase [2][45] - **Key Growth Stage**: Currently, 58% of the country's soybeans are in the key stage of determining yield (filling and later). In the two core producing areas, more than half of the early-sown soybeans have entered the filling stage with less water restriction [2][45] - **Production Forecast**: The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture maintains the forecast of this season's soybean production at 48.5 million tons. USDA's overall NDVI reading for Argentina has slowly increased in the past few weeks and is currently above the average [2][45] - **Future Forecast**: Argentina will have dry weather in the next 5 days, and precipitation will occur in the next 6 - 10 days, but the southern region will still be dry [2][45] International Soybean Annual Focus - Different months have different focuses, including US soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, Chinese imports, US and Chinese sowing areas, and US yield levels [63] Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - The growth cycle includes the planting period, flowering period, growth period, and harvest period, each with specific temperature, moisture, and weather requirements, as well as corresponding disaster risks [71]
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西收获进展加速,阿根廷关注降水
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is accelerating, with the harvest progress reaching 16.55%, higher than 9.84% in the same period last year, and market institutions are continuously increasing their production forecasts. Although Argentina faces a risk of production reduction, the overall abundant harvest pattern in South America is set [1][14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Brazil's Soybean Situation - **Mid - western Region** - In Mato Grosso, the soybean harvest progress has reached 39.61% of the sown area, with a single - week progress of 14.64%, much higher than 28.58% in the same period last year. Dry weather has accelerated the harvest in the central - northern, northern, and western regions, and the harvested yield has exceeded the initial forecast [1][14]. - In the southwestern dry - farming area of Goiás, the harvest is accelerating, but due to excessive rainfall, the harvest yield varies, and in some areas, the grains are lighter and the quality has declined [1][14]. - In the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul, water shortage in some areas has reduced the production potential, but other areas are still growing well, with 97.7% of the soybeans rated as good or above [1][14][15]. - In Minas Gerais, soybeans continue to grow well, but recent excessive rainfall has delayed the harvest in the irrigated areas [1][15]. - **Southern Region** - In the western part of Paraná, the harvest is underway. High - temperature and low - rainfall conditions have affected the soybean yield potential and accelerated the maturity of soybeans [1][15]. - In Rio Grande do Sul, the planting period has been extended, and sowing operations are still ongoing in the areas after the first - crop corn harvest [1][15]. 3.2 Argentina's Soybean Situation - The national soybean sowing work has ended. The proportion of crops in good condition or above has decreased by 9% week - on - week to 75%, but increased by 4% year - on - year. The proportion of suitable or better moisture conditions has decreased by 6% week - on - week to 59%, and decreased by 7% year - on - year [2][34]. - More than 40% of the first - season soybeans in the central Pampas Plain are in the critical yield - forming period. The moisture conditions in the central - eastern Entre Ríos and southern Córdoba are poor, while in the northern La Pampa and western Buenos Aires, the moisture conditions for crop growth are suitable [2][34]. - 16% of the second - season soybeans have entered the reproductive growth stage, but they also face water deficits, with some experiencing flower shedding and even plant death in extreme cases. The uniformity of rainfall in the next two weeks will have a significant impact on the final yield [2][34]. 3.3 International Soybean Annual Focus - Different months have different focus points, including US soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, Chinese imports, US and Chinese sowing areas, and US yield levels [52]. 3.4 Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Growth Cycle** - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - centimeter soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the moisture should be maintained at 60% - 70% [60]. - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature for flowering is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80% [60]. - **Growth Period**: The suitable growth temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be maintained at about 70% [60]. - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the relative air humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be maintained at 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity [60]. - **Disaster Risks** - Planting period: Floods and extreme droughts [60]. - Flowering period: Floods (continuous rain), droughts [60]. - Growth period: Heatwaves, droughts, and pests [60]. - Harvest period: Continuous rain and storms [60].
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西产区逐渐收获,阿根廷土墒继续下行
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 11:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress has reached 2.3%, with the rest of the crops in various growth stages. The soil moisture in the central - western and southern core producing areas is generally good, ensuring a record - high yield expectation. In contrast, the Argentine soybean sowing is in its final stage, with the sowing progress advancing 2.3% to 96.2% but still 2 - 3% lower than last year. Rainfall restricts operations in the northern agricultural areas, and the soil moisture and crop conditions are deteriorating [1][2] Summary of Each Section 1. Brazil's Current Situation - **Overall Progress**: The soybean harvest progress is 2.3%, with 2.3% in the seedling stage, 18.3% in the vegetative growth stage, 17.3% in the flowering stage, 53.6% in the pod - filling stage, and 8.1% in the maturity stage [1] - **Regional Conditions** - **Mato Grosso**: The harvest rate is 13.88%, an increase of 7.19% from last week, higher than the same period in 2025 (4.38%) and the five - year average (5.61%). The alternating dry and sunny weather is conducive to the harvest, and the initial harvest yield is expected to be good [1] - **Goias**: Harvest mainly starts in the irrigated areas. Frequent rainfall benefits crop growth but slows down the natural maturity and harvest progress in the late growth stage [1] - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Harvest is carried out in low - lying areas, with an overall excellent and good rate of 85.7% [1] - **Minas Gerais**: The first batch of irrigated areas starts the harvest, and the harvested part has a good yield. Most other areas in the pod - filling stage have good crop conditions [1] - **Parana**: Rainfall benefits crop growth but delays the harvest and maturity progress in some areas [1] - **Rio Grande do Sul**: The rainfall is not abundant but frequent, which helps crop growth. The subsequent rainfall may continue until February [1] 2. Argentina's Current Situation - **Sowing Progress**: The sowing progress has advanced 2.3% to 96.2%, entering the final stage, but it is 2 - 3% lower than last year. Rainfall restricts operations in the northern agricultural areas [2] - **Crop and Soil Conditions**: Due to water shortages in southern Cordoba and western Buenos Aires, the proportion of good - quality crops has decreased by 9% to 87% month - on - month, and the proportion of good - quality soil moisture has decreased by 6% to 68% month - on - month. About 15% of the first - season soybeans in the two core producing areas have entered the critical growth stage and are in urgent need of water. There are also pest problems and difficulties in ridge - closing in some fields [2] - **Future Situation**: Most corn and soybean producing areas will continue to be dry [2] 3. International Soybean Annual Focus Points - **January**: U.S. soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [57] - **February**: U.S. export volume, Chinese import volume, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [57] - **March**: Brazilian export volume, South American production, and U.S. sowing area [57] - **April**: South American production, U.S. sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [57] - **May**: U.S. sowing area, Chinese sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [57] - **June**: U.S. yield per unit area and Brazilian export volume [57] - **July - September**: U.S. yield per unit area [57] - **October**: U.S. yield per unit area, production, and South American planting area [57] - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [57] - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. export volume [57] 4. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Growth Cycle**: Includes the planting period (sowing - germination and emergence), flowering period, growth period (pod - setting, pod - filling and grain - filling), and harvest period [65] - **Weather Requirements** - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer should reach 10 - 12°C at the initial sowing stage. The suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70% [65] - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80% [65] - **Growth Period**: The suitable growth temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be maintained at about 70% [65] - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the relative air humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be maintained at 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity [65] - **Disaster Risks**: Include floods, extreme droughts, continuous rainfall, storms, heatwaves, and pests at different growth stages [65]
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西产区降雨均匀,阿根廷土墒减弱
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 13:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the meteorological conditions in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, and points out the current growth status, sowing progress, and potential impacts of weather on yields in these regions, also lists the annual key points of international soybeans [1][2][53] Summary According to Related Contents 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas - **Overall Situation**: Brazil's soybeans are generally in the middle growth stage, with some areas entering the final stage. The national emergence rate is 6.2%, the vegetative growth period is 24.6%, the flowering period is 48.7%, the pod - filling period is 19.6%, and the harvesting progress is 1.39%, higher than the same period last year and the historical average [1][14] - **Regional Conditions** - **Mato Grosso**: The harvesting progress is close to 5%, and it is expected to accelerate by the end of January, affected by rainfall and crop maturity [1][14] - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Soil moisture is good, the pest and disease incidence is low, and over 85.7% of the soybean fields are rated as "good" [1][14] - **Goias**: Some irrigated areas have entered the maturity stage, and the rest benefit from regular rainfall [1][14] - **Minas Gerais**: The crop condition is good, and harvesting will start in the last ten days of January [1][15] - **Parana**: Decreased rainfall and high - temperature weather have accelerated the maturity of plots nearing the end of the cycle, and sporadic harvesting has begun in the western part [1][15] - **Rio Grande do Sul**: State - wide rainfall is beneficial to crop growth, and the first - sown crops have entered the pod - filling stage [1][15] 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas - **Sowing Progress**: The sowing progress increased by 5.6% week - on - week to 93.9%, about 5% behind the previous year [2][35] - **Crop Conditions**: 96% of the sown crops are in good condition or above (a 4% decline from the previous period), and 73% of the water conditions are suitable or above (a 12% decline from the previous period) [2][35] - **Potential Risks**: The northeastern region and the north - central part of Santa Fe are affected by excessive water, delaying sowing. In Buenos Aires, the soil surface is showing water deficiency. If there is no effective rainfall in the next 2 - 3 weeks, the potential yield per unit may be reduced [2][35] 3. International Soybean Annual Key Points - **January**: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [53] - **February**: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [53] - **March**: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [53] - **April**: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [53] - **May**: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [53] - **June**: U.S. yield per unit and Brazilian exports [53] - **July - September**: U.S. yield per unit [53] - **October**: U.S. yield per unit, production, and South American planting area [53] - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [53] - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [53] 4. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - centimeter soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Risks include floods and extreme drought [61] - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Risks include floods, droughts, and continuous rain [61] - **Growth Period**: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [61] - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Risks include continuous rainfall and storms [61]
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西产区部分收获,阿根廷降雨偏少
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 15:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a detailed analysis of the soybean weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, including sowing progress, growth stages, and potential impacts of rainfall on yields [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - Overall sowing progress reached 98.2%, with most crops in the reproductive growth stage, 32.8% in the flowering stage, 41.3% in the filling stage, 23.1% mature, and 0.53% in the harvest stage, leading last year by 0.05% [1][16] - In Mato Grosso state, the harvest has begun with a progress of 1.98%, faster than last year's 0.7% and the five - year average of 1.09%, but less rainfall may affect unharvested yields [1][16] - In Mato Grosso do Sul state, crop physiological development is normal, but effective rainfall is needed in the east and southwest. 85.7% of the farmland is in "good" condition [1][16] - In Goias state, sowing is completed, climate conditions are favorable, and areas sown at the beginning of the sowing window have entered the maturity stage, with harvesting即将开始 [1][16] - In Minas Gerais state, regular rainfall and temperature differences are beneficial for oilseed crop growth, but hail in the northwest damaged some crops [1][17] - In Rio Grande do Sul state, rainfall maintains good soil moisture, but crops sown in low - lying areas show signs of rust, partially affecting yields [1][17] - In Parana state, the western part has started harvesting, and rainfall is beneficial for crop growth [1][17] Argentina - Soybean sowing progress increased 6.3% week - on - week to 88.3%, about 10% behind the previous year [2][37] - Nearly 100% of the crops in the current production area are in excellent or good condition, and 99% have suitable moisture conditions [2][37] - 10% of the first - sown soybean area has entered the flowering stage, and 40% are gradually entering the key reproductive water - demanding period. The second - season soybean sowing area is 84% complete, mostly in the vegetative growth stage [2][37] - Less rainfall in the next two weeks may affect soil moisture in some areas [2] International Soybean Annual Focus Points - Different months have different focus points, such as US soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [56] Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Different growth stages (planting, flowering, growing, harvesting) have different temperature, moisture requirements, and disaster risks [64]
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西产区开启籽粒灌浆,阿根廷进入需求关键期
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 12:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazil's soybean is in a critical water - demand period, with 22.6% in the flowering stage, 38.5% in the vegetative growth stage, and 37.3% in the grain - filling stage, and some early - sown soybeans are in the mature harvest stage [1][20]. - Argentina's soybean planting area has increased by 6.5% week - on - week to 82%, with 97% of the sown area having suitable or better water conditions, and 17.3% of the first - season soybeans in the reproductive growth stage. The sowing of late - sown soybeans is 71.9% complete [1][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Brazil's Regional Conditions - **Mato Grosso**: The field growth is good, having overcome the negative impact of uneven rainfall in November. The replanting area is within the historical average range, and the harvest is about to start [1][20]. - **Goias**: Sowing is nearing completion. Rainfall has become regular, and the phenomena of missing seedlings and uneven growth in the fields have significantly reduced [1][20]. - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Continuous rainfall continues to benefit the crops, with most plots in the reproductive growth stage and high - yield potential [1][20]. - **Minas Gerais**: Sowing has been completed, and the recent decrease in rainfall is conducive to pesticide spraying [1][20]. - **Bahia**: Alternating sunny and rainy weather is conducive to crop growth and the last - stage sowing operations [1][20]. - **Parana**: The harvest has started, about 1/3 of the area is in the grain - filling stage, and most crops are developing well [1][21]. - **Rio Grande do Sul**: Recent rainfall has restored the previously drought - hindered vegetative growth, provided germination conditions for the plots sown in early December, and promoted the smooth continuation of sowing work [1][21]. Argentina's Regional Conditions - **Buenos Aires**: The soybean growth in the two core production areas and the western part of Buenos Aires is more rapid, and the area is expected to receive rainfall to meet the critical water - demand period of the crops. The sowing of late - sown soybeans is 71.9% complete, and the overall emergence is good [41]. International Soybean Annual Focus Points - **January**: U.S. soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [59]. - **February**: U.S. export volume, Chinese import volume, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [59]. - **March**: Brazilian export volume, South American production, and U.S. sowing area [59]. - **April**: South American production, U.S. sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **May**: U.S. sowing area, Chinese sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **June**: U.S. yield level and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **July - September**: U.S. yield level [59]. - **October**: U.S. yield level, production, and South American planting area [59]. - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [59]. - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. export volume [59]. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [67]. - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods (continuous rain), drought [67]. - **Growth Period**: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, drought, and pests [67]. - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the relative air humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50%. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [67].
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西产区进入营养生长阶段,阿根廷关注降雨情况
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 13:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall soybean planting in Brazil and Argentina is progressing well, but attention should be paid to the rainfall in Argentina in the next two weeks [1][2][15][39] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Brazil's Meteorological Situation - Brazil's national soybean sowing progress has reached 97.6%, and the crops are generally in good growth, gradually recovering from the negative impact of uneven rainfall in December [1][15] - In the central region, it has entered the vegetative growth stage, and the replanted areas in the east and south are at the historical average level [1][15] - In Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, continuous rainfall is conducive to most areas entering the reproductive growth stage and showing good yield potential [1][15] - In Goiás, the planting work is nearing completion, the rainfall has returned to normal, and the problems of soil moisture shortage and uneven growth have been alleviated [1][15] - In Minas Gerais, sowing is basically completed, but excessive rainfall in some areas has delayed the fertilization progress [1][16] - In Paraná, about one - third of the area has entered the grain - filling stage, and most crops are growing well [1][16] - In Rio Grande do Sul, effective precipitation has alleviated the previous soil moisture shortage and created favorable conditions for the germination of areas sown in early December [1][16] 3.2 Argentina's Meteorological Situation - Argentina's sowing progress has increased by 8.2% week - on - week to 75.5%, with a good rate of 99% and a water sufficiency rate of 96% [2][39] - The first - sown soybeans have entered the late growth stage, and the planting in the northern Pampas agricultural area continues. Recent significant rainfall in the northeast is beneficial for soil moisture recovery [2][39] - About 10% of the planted area has entered the vegetative growth stage, mainly in the central and southern regions, with sufficient soil moisture [2][39] - The second - season soybean planting has completed 57.9%, and the central and southern regions are progressing well. However, there may be a decrease in rainfall in the next two weeks, so rainfall needs to be continuously monitored [2][39] 3.3 International Soybean Annual Focus Points - January: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [57] - February: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [57] - March: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [57] - April: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [57] - May: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [57] - June: U.S. yield per unit area and Brazilian exports [57] - July - September: U.S. yield per unit area [57] - October: U.S. yield per unit area, production, and South American planting area [57] - November - December: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [57] 3.4 Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Planting period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the beginning of sowing should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the moisture should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [65] - Blooming period: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods, droughts, etc. [65] - Growth period: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [65] - Harvest period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil moisture should be about 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [65]