南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告 ———巴西降雨不均收获放缓，阿根廷进入生长关键期 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年03月02日 本周重要气象提示 1、巴西：2025/26年度大豆收割进度完成32.3%，仍有31.2%处于灌浆阶段。中西部地区来看，马托格罗索 州大豆收割进度已达已播种面积的78.34%，低于去年同期的82.30%，近期收获进度减慢主要由于降雨频繁， 但高作业能力继续推动收获，已收获区域单产良好；戈亚斯州该州的收获工作正在推进，但在一些地区，过 多的降雨已经开始影响谷物质量；南马托格罗索州本周的降雨导致一些城市的收获工作暂停，但有利于处于 灌浆期的大豆；米纳斯吉拉斯州旱作区的收获工作正在推进，但过多的降雨助长了真菌病害的发生。南部地 区来看，巴拉那州本周的干燥天气有利于作物成熟和推进收获，但影响了处于灌浆期地块的生产潜力；在南 里奥格兰德州，本周发生的降雨不规则且雨量小，不足以满足作物需求。整体来看，市场对巴西大豆产量预 期持不同观点，Safra&Mercado咨询公司，将大豆产量下调150万 ...

南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告 ——— 巴西收获进展加速，阿根廷关注降水 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月09日 本周重要气象提示 1、巴西：2025/26年度大豆收割进度完成16.55%，高于去年同期的9.84%。中西部地区来看，马托格罗索州 大豆收割进度已达已播种面积的39.61%，单周收割进度推进14.64%，远高于去年同期的28.58%，干燥天气 有利于中北部，北部和西部地区收割加速推进，已收获单产超过初期预估；戈亚斯州西南部旱作区的收获正 在加速，但由于降雨过多，收获单产表现不一，部分地区出现籽粒较轻，质量下降的现象；南马托格罗索州 南部部分地区的大豆缺水导致生产潜力下降，其他地区长势仍保持优秀，整体来看97.7%的大豆评级在良好 以上；米纳斯吉拉斯州大豆继续维持良好生长，但近期降雨过多延误了灌溉区的收获。南部地区来看，巴拉 那州西部地区的收获工作正在进行，而高温少雨影响了大豆单产潜力，并加速了大豆成熟；在南里奥格兰德 州，种植期已经延长，在头茬玉米收割后的区域播种作业仍在继续。整体来看已 ...

南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告 ———巴西产区逐渐收获，阿根廷土墒继续下行 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年01月26日 本周重要气象提示 1、巴西：大豆收割进度已达2.3%，其余作物出苗期 2.3%，营养生长18.3%，开花期17.3%，鼓粒期 53.6%，成熟期 8.1%，整体来看，当前正值主要生长季关键期，尽管近期天气相对偏干，但核心产区中西部 以及南部地区土壤墒情整体良好，保证了创纪录的单产预期。中西部马托格罗索州，收割率已经达到种植面 积的13.88%，较上周增加7.19%。收割率也高于2025年同期的4.38%，以及五年均值的5.61%。降雨减少与 晴朗天气交替出现，有利于全州范围内收割工作的推进，初期收获的单产预期良好；戈亚斯州目前收割主要 在灌溉区开始，尽管频繁降雨有利于作物生长，但受此影响下生长末期自然成熟与收获进度减缓；南马托格 罗索州收割在低洼地区进行，整体优良率85.7%；米纳斯吉拉斯州首批灌溉区开始收割，已收获部分取得了 良好的单产，而其他大部分处于灌浆期的区域作物状况良好。在南 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the meteorological conditions in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, and points out the current growth status, sowing progress, and potential impacts of weather on yields in these regions, also lists the annual key points of international soybeans [1][2][53] Summary According to Related Contents 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas - **Overall Situation**: Brazil's soybeans are generally in the middle growth stage, with some areas entering the final stage. The national emergence rate is 6.2%, the vegetative growth period is 24.6%, the flowering period is 48.7%, the pod - filling period is 19.6%, and the harvesting progress is 1.39%, higher than the same period last year and the historical average [1][14] - **Regional Conditions** - **Mato Grosso**: The harvesting progress is close to 5%, and it is expected to accelerate by the end of January, affected by rainfall and crop maturity [1][14] - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Soil moisture is good, the pest and disease incidence is low, and over 85.7% of the soybean fields are rated as "good" [1][14] - **Goias**: Some irrigated areas have entered the maturity stage, and the rest benefit from regular rainfall [1][14] - **Minas Gerais**: The crop condition is good, and harvesting will start in the last ten days of January [1][15] - **Parana**: Decreased rainfall and high - temperature weather have accelerated the maturity of plots nearing the end of the cycle, and sporadic harvesting has begun in the western part [1][15] - **Rio Grande do Sul**: State - wide rainfall is beneficial to crop growth, and the first - sown crops have entered the pod - filling stage [1][15] 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas - **Sowing Progress**: The sowing progress increased by 5.6% week - on - week to 93.9%, about 5% behind the previous year [2][35] - **Crop Conditions**: 96% of the sown crops are in good condition or above (a 4% decline from the previous period), and 73% of the water conditions are suitable or above (a 12% decline from the previous period) [2][35] - **Potential Risks**: The northeastern region and the north - central part of Santa Fe are affected by excessive water, delaying sowing. In Buenos Aires, the soil surface is showing water deficiency. If there is no effective rainfall in the next 2 - 3 weeks, the potential yield per unit may be reduced [2][35] 3. International Soybean Annual Key Points - **January**: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [53] - **February**: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [53] - **March**: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [53] - **April**: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [53] - **May**: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [53] - **June**: U.S. yield per unit and Brazilian exports [53] - **July - September**: U.S. yield per unit [53] - **October**: U.S. yield per unit, production, and South American planting area [53] - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [53] - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [53] 4. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - centimeter soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Risks include floods and extreme drought [61] - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Risks include floods, droughts, and continuous rain [61] - **Growth Period**: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [61] - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Risks include continuous rainfall and storms [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a detailed analysis of the soybean weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, including sowing progress, growth stages, and potential impacts of rainfall on yields [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - Overall sowing progress reached 98.2%, with most crops in the reproductive growth stage, 32.8% in the flowering stage, 41.3% in the filling stage, 23.1% mature, and 0.53% in the harvest stage, leading last year by 0.05% [1][16] - In Mato Grosso state, the harvest has begun with a progress of 1.98%, faster than last year's 0.7% and the five - year average of 1.09%, but less rainfall may affect unharvested yields [1][16] - In Mato Grosso do Sul state, crop physiological development is normal, but effective rainfall is needed in the east and southwest. 85.7% of the farmland is in "good" condition [1][16] - In Goias state, sowing is completed, climate conditions are favorable, and areas sown at the beginning of the sowing window have entered the maturity stage, with harvesting即将开始 [1][16] - In Minas Gerais state, regular rainfall and temperature differences are beneficial for oilseed crop growth, but hail in the northwest damaged some crops [1][17] - In Rio Grande do Sul state, rainfall maintains good soil moisture, but crops sown in low - lying areas show signs of rust, partially affecting yields [1][17] - In Parana state, the western part has started harvesting, and rainfall is beneficial for crop growth [1][17] Argentina - Soybean sowing progress increased 6.3% week - on - week to 88.3%, about 10% behind the previous year [2][37] - Nearly 100% of the crops in the current production area are in excellent or good condition, and 99% have suitable moisture conditions [2][37] - 10% of the first - sown soybean area has entered the flowering stage, and 40% are gradually entering the key reproductive water - demanding period. The second - season soybean sowing area is 84% complete, mostly in the vegetative growth stage [2][37] - Less rainfall in the next two weeks may affect soil moisture in some areas [2] International Soybean Annual Focus Points - Different months have different focus points, such as US soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [56] Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Different growth stages (planting, flowering, growing, harvesting) have different temperature, moisture requirements, and disaster risks [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazil's soybean is in a critical water - demand period, with 22.6% in the flowering stage, 38.5% in the vegetative growth stage, and 37.3% in the grain - filling stage, and some early - sown soybeans are in the mature harvest stage [1][20]. - Argentina's soybean planting area has increased by 6.5% week - on - week to 82%, with 97% of the sown area having suitable or better water conditions, and 17.3% of the first - season soybeans in the reproductive growth stage. The sowing of late - sown soybeans is 71.9% complete [1][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Brazil's Regional Conditions - **Mato Grosso**: The field growth is good, having overcome the negative impact of uneven rainfall in November. The replanting area is within the historical average range, and the harvest is about to start [1][20]. - **Goias**: Sowing is nearing completion. Rainfall has become regular, and the phenomena of missing seedlings and uneven growth in the fields have significantly reduced [1][20]. - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Continuous rainfall continues to benefit the crops, with most plots in the reproductive growth stage and high - yield potential [1][20]. - **Minas Gerais**: Sowing has been completed, and the recent decrease in rainfall is conducive to pesticide spraying [1][20]. - **Bahia**: Alternating sunny and rainy weather is conducive to crop growth and the last - stage sowing operations [1][20]. - **Parana**: The harvest has started, about 1/3 of the area is in the grain - filling stage, and most crops are developing well [1][21]. - **Rio Grande do Sul**: Recent rainfall has restored the previously drought - hindered vegetative growth, provided germination conditions for the plots sown in early December, and promoted the smooth continuation of sowing work [1][21]. Argentina's Regional Conditions - **Buenos Aires**: The soybean growth in the two core production areas and the western part of Buenos Aires is more rapid, and the area is expected to receive rainfall to meet the critical water - demand period of the crops. The sowing of late - sown soybeans is 71.9% complete, and the overall emergence is good [41]. International Soybean Annual Focus Points - **January**: U.S. soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [59]. - **February**: U.S. export volume, Chinese import volume, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [59]. - **March**: Brazilian export volume, South American production, and U.S. sowing area [59]. - **April**: South American production, U.S. sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **May**: U.S. sowing area, Chinese sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **June**: U.S. yield level and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **July - September**: U.S. yield level [59]. - **October**: U.S. yield level, production, and South American planting area [59]. - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [59]. - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. export volume [59]. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [67]. - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods (continuous rain), drought [67]. - **Growth Period**: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, drought, and pests [67]. - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the relative air humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50%. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall soybean planting in Brazil and Argentina is progressing well, but attention should be paid to the rainfall in Argentina in the next two weeks [1][2][15][39] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Brazil's Meteorological Situation - Brazil's national soybean sowing progress has reached 97.6%, and the crops are generally in good growth, gradually recovering from the negative impact of uneven rainfall in December [1][15] - In the central region, it has entered the vegetative growth stage, and the replanted areas in the east and south are at the historical average level [1][15] - In Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, continuous rainfall is conducive to most areas entering the reproductive growth stage and showing good yield potential [1][15] - In Goiás, the planting work is nearing completion, the rainfall has returned to normal, and the problems of soil moisture shortage and uneven growth have been alleviated [1][15] - In Minas Gerais, sowing is basically completed, but excessive rainfall in some areas has delayed the fertilization progress [1][16] - In Paraná, about one - third of the area has entered the grain - filling stage, and most crops are growing well [1][16] - In Rio Grande do Sul, effective precipitation has alleviated the previous soil moisture shortage and created favorable conditions for the germination of areas sown in early December [1][16] 3.2 Argentina's Meteorological Situation - Argentina's sowing progress has increased by 8.2% week - on - week to 75.5%, with a good rate of 99% and a water sufficiency rate of 96% [2][39] - The first - sown soybeans have entered the late growth stage, and the planting in the northern Pampas agricultural area continues. Recent significant rainfall in the northeast is beneficial for soil moisture recovery [2][39] - About 10% of the planted area has entered the vegetative growth stage, mainly in the central and southern regions, with sufficient soil moisture [2][39] - The second - season soybean planting has completed 57.9%, and the central and southern regions are progressing well. However, there may be a decrease in rainfall in the next two weeks, so rainfall needs to be continuously monitored [2][39] 3.3 International Soybean Annual Focus Points - January: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [57] - February: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [57] - March: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [57] - April: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [57] - May: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [57] - June: U.S. yield per unit area and Brazilian exports [57] - July - September: U.S. yield per unit area [57] - October: U.S. yield per unit area, production, and South American planting area [57] - November - December: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [57] 3.4 Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Planting period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the beginning of sowing should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the moisture should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [65] - Blooming period: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods, droughts, etc. [65] - Growth period: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [65] - Harvest period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil moisture should be about 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [65]