1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral strategy for the oil and fat industry [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The weather in the US soybean production areas is favorable, with a decreasing drought rate and good growth. As the weather window gradually closes, there are strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which puts pressure on the oil and fat market, leading to an oscillatory adjustment [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.22% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8,406 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9,496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan or 0.69% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + -10 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.23%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 104 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or 0.62%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 114 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - **US Drought**: As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [2] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares (118.9 million acres), a 1.43% increase from the previous year, the smallest increase since the 2006/07 season. The estimated production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons. Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, compared to 7.98 million tons last year [2] - **US Soybean Exports**: The net sales of US soybean exports in the 2024/2025 season were 468,000 tons, up from 349,000 tons the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 545,000 tons, up from 429,000 tons the previous week [2] - **Brazilian Exports**: Brazilian soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, compared to 7.98 million tons last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.74 million tons, compared to 2.1 million tons last year; corn exports are expected to be 7.58 million tons, compared to 6.42 million tons last year [2] - **Import Prices**: Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price is $561/ton, down $7/ton; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price is $551/ton, down $7/ton. Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) C&F price is $1,141/ton, down $12/ton; Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price is $1,120/ton, down $21/ton [2]