天气因素对农产品影响

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国投期货农产品日报-20250730
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 11:29
Reported Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides investment ratings and operation suggestions. It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to weather and policy guidance, as well as market supply and demand changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans stopped falling and rebounded, with reduced positions in the futures market. The third round of economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States reached a consensus to continue to suspend the addition of tariffs and extend the period for 90 days. The short - term precipitation in Northeast China is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the risk of waterlogging. The weather in the Midwest of the United States is favorable for soybean production, and preparations should be made for a potential bumper harvest [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The third - round Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached an agreement to suspend the addition of tariffs and extend for 90 days. In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas in the United States is slightly higher than normal, and the soil humidity is better than last year. As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The high good - to - excellent rate puts pressure on US soybeans. The market should continue to observe the weather in the producing areas and treat the market as volatile for now [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The technical form of US soybean oil is in a sideways shock. The high ratio of US soybean oil to tank and the strengthening of the international crude oil market may boost the domestic vegetable oil market. The short - term weather is favorable for US soybean production. Overseas vegetable oil prices are stronger than those in China, increasing the probability of trading opportunities. Due to the long - term development trend of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the upcoming palm oil production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the short - term phenomenon of strong oil and weak meal. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures prices generally rebounded. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills increased by 0.7 million tons to 1.9 million tons, the port inventory decreased by nearly 3 million tons, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal in East China has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks. The Sino - US consensus on continuing to extend the suspension of tariffs for 90 days, but uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian agricultural product trade still exist, which may intensify concerns about rapeseed import bottlenecks. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, and demand growth is limited due to the high price difference compared with competing products. The domestic import of Canadian rapeseed is cautious, the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed - related futures prices may fluctuate in a high - level range [6]. Corn - Corn futures continued to fluctuate. CGS will hold two auctions of imported corn tomorrow, including 186,200 tons of US corn and 8,600 tons of Ukrainian corn. The spot price in Shandong remained stable. As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 73%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The current domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and attention should be paid to the phased supply in the circulation link. Against the background of the decline in US corn prices, Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures fluctuated and declined during the day, continuing the recent correction. Only the July contract strengthened slightly. The spot price was slightly adjusted and basically stable. Considering the sufficient medium - term supply of live pigs and the rapid cooling of the policy - driven market this week, live pig futures may have reached their peak, and the probability of subsequent decline and fluctuation has increased. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies. Attention should be paid to the industry's slaughter rhythm, slaughter weight, and production capacity changes [8]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were stable in most areas and slightly declined in some local areas. The August contract is approaching delivery, and the futures price continued to fall. The off - season contracts continued to be weak, and the October and November contracts fluctuated and fell back to near the previous lows. The overall capital increased positions. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price can continue the seasonal peak - season upward trend. In the long - term, egg prices have not reached the cyclical bottom [9].
国投期货农产品日报-20250717
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 13:53
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - **Soybean Oil**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Palm Oil**: Three red stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Soybean Meal**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: One red star, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Corn**: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, recommending to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Eggs**: One red star, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of agricultural products show different trends, affected by factors such as weather, policies, trade, and supply - demand relationships. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance, and long - term thinking for vegetable oils is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans maintain a rebound trend. There is a risk of short - term waterlogging in some areas in the future week. Policy - related bidding procurement had zero transactions today. There is a risk of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the southern US soybean - producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in North China rose by 40 yuan per ton today. The oil mill's operating rate remains high, and soybean meal inventory continues to increase. The demand - side提货量 is also at a high level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. Pay attention to possible Sino - US trade news tonight and the August 1st tariff node. The price trend of soybean meal mainly depends on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both domestic oil and meal prices are rising, with meal stronger than oil. There is a risk of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the southern US soybean - producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days. The palm oil main contract continues to strengthen. In the long - term, the development of biodiesel can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying vegetable oils on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather guidance [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal had a significant increase today due to changes in economic and trade expectations. Canada's plan to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel products has raised concerns about Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Although there is growth potential in Sino - Australian rapeseed trade, there are uncertainties in direct rapeseed imports. It is expected that the trend of rapeseed product inventory reduction will continue, and short - term prices may rise [6] Corn - Dalian corn oscillated sideways today. The increased auction sales by CGS have affected market expectations. There will be a US - imported corn auction tomorrow, with a quantity of about 300,000 tons. US corn is growing well, and Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig 19 contract strengthened after hitting a new low during the day and closed slightly higher. The spot price continued to decline, and the supply is accelerating. In the first half of the year, pork production increased by 1.3%. At the end of the second quarter, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In the first half of the year, the number of live pigs slaughtered was 366.19 million, an increase of 0.6%. The industry supply is abundant in the later period, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term. The industry can participate in short - selling hedging at high prices and pay attention to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on prices [8] Eggs - Egg futures decreased with increasing positions, mainly in off - season contracts such as October and November. Due to high production capacity and insufficient culling, off - season contracts are under pressure, while the peak - season contract 09 is still relatively supported. The spot price rose today, and the seasonal demand peak is approaching. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]