交易商表示，根据新贸易协议，印尼恐难以兑现大幅增加美国农产品进口的承诺。其中，美国豆粕进口 量需要巨幅增长，这一重担将落在一家新接手饲料采购任务的国有机构身上。 "每年采购 350 万吨的承诺需要实事求是评估，以免超出国内需求、扰乱供需平衡。" 印尼上周敲定一项贸易协议，美国将对印尼商品的关税从 32% 降至 19%，棕榈油、可可、橡胶等关键 商品免征进口关税。 作为交换，印尼承诺： 一家向印尼供应小麦与饲料谷物的国际贸易商交易员称： "印尼面粉厂已经在增加采购美国小麦。"该国 2025 年美国小麦进口量已从 75 万吨增至110 万 吨。"2026 年最多也就买 125 万~130 万吨。" 大豆与豆粕 美国是主要农产品供应国，正寻求将农产品出口市场多元化，减少对头号买家中国的依赖 —— 后者因 与美方的贸易紧张正在缩减采购。 在大豆方面，印尼为满足豆腐、丹贝（传统发酵豆制品）需求上升，目前大部分大豆已从美国采购。而 其对美方的新承诺已超过该国全年大豆总进口量。 印尼大豆进口商协会 Akindo 数据显示，印尼每年大豆消费量为270 万~290 万吨，几乎全部依赖进口。 Akindo 主席 Hidayatu ...

孟加拉国将购买35亿美元的美国农产品。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful promotion of Guizhou agricultural products in Chengdu, highlighting the cultural significance and market potential of these products in the context of regional cooperation and consumer engagement [3][4][44]. Group 1: Event Overview - The promotional event titled "Taste Specialties and Seek New Year Flavor: Guizhou Products Enter Sichuan" was held successfully, serving as both a trade activity and a cultural dialogue [3][4]. - The event aimed to connect rural and urban areas, blending traditional and modern elements through the promotion of Guizhou's agricultural products [5][12]. Group 2: Market Potential - With over 1.4 billion people in China, there is a significant demand for agricultural products, indicating a large market potential [6]. - Chengdu, as a major consumption hub in Southwest China, offers a substantial agricultural market advantage for Guizhou products [7][8]. Group 3: Marketing Strategy - The marketing approach emphasized emotional and cultural resonance rather than just product quality, enhancing the appeal of Guizhou products [21][22]. - The event showcased Guizhou products in the context of traditional Chinese New Year celebrations, transforming them into carriers of cultural stories and emotional connections [12][20]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - The promotion was not just about individual brands but presented a unified image of Guizhou products, creating a strong brand aggregation effect [30][32]. - The event facilitated deep discussions with local distributors, restaurants, and e-commerce platforms, embedding Guizhou products into a broader distribution network [37][40]. Group 5: Future Implications - The event's significance extends beyond immediate sales, planting seeds for brand recognition, channel cooperation, and cultural exchange [36][39]. - It represents a model for regional cooperation and development, showcasing how agricultural products can thrive through strategic marketing and collaboration [44][45].

本文转自【光明网-时评频道】； 作者：谭智心 农业农村部农村经济研究中心研究员 2月3日，中共中央、国务院《关于锚定农业农村现代化、扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发布。2026年 中央一号文件再次将"三农"工作置于重中之重，开篇首条即聚焦"提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益"， 这一表述既延续了国家保障粮食安全、推动农业现代化的一贯战略要求，又立足新发展阶段注入了富有 时代特色的新内涵与新部署。 作为指导当前和今后一个时期"三农"工作的纲领性文件，今年相关表述的深化与拓展，精准回应了国内 外新形势与新挑战，为推进乡村全面振兴、加快建设农业强国指明了更加清晰的实践路径。与既往文件 相比，今年一号文件在延续稳产保供战略核心的基础上，其政策表述更显集成化、系统化和精准化，清 晰指明在新发展阶段筑牢国家粮食安全根基、引领农业提质增效的具体路径。这意味着中国农业正迎来 从"规模扩张"到"内涵发展"的深刻转型。从文件提法看，呈现出三个鲜明的战略转向。 第一，更加注重系统集成与全链条协同，推动农业生产从产能提升向体系化建设跃迁。文件开宗明义， 将粮食产量稳定在1.4万亿斤左右定为目标，并提出了"坚持产量产能、生产生态、增产增收一 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-6 合成橡胶盘面弹性较大，关注低位支撑 油脂：供应预期承压，油脂弱势回调 蛋⽩粕：现货涨跌互现，双粕盘⾯震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现震荡运⾏ ⽣猪：购销顺畅，猪价弱势 天然橡㬵：短期⽀撑仍有效 合成橡㬵：盘⾯弹性较⼤，关注低位⽀撑 棉花：震荡调整，节前缺乏单边趋势 ⽩糖：巴西⻝糖出⼝仍存潜⼒，中⻓期震荡偏弱预期不改 纸浆：针叶美⾦盘报平，基本⾯弱势更为明显 双㬵纸：商品转弱，双㬵回调 原⽊：冲⾼回落，原⽊区间运⾏ ⻛险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 【异动品种】 合成橡㬵观点：盘⾯弹性较⼤，关注低位⽀撑 逻辑：昨日BR盘面夜盘突然大幅下挫，而后日盘商品在贵金属继续大幅回 调的带动下走低，BR维持偏弱，但触及12500元/吨关口后获得支撑并小幅 反弹。从基本面来看并未出现明显变化，丁二烯成交也并不差，所以我们 认为盘面更多仅是调整需求。目前来说，中期核心逻辑暂时未变，即对于 丁二烯在2026上半年供应偏紧预期的交易。目前来说，在原料偏紧格局 下,商品情绪即使整体影响依旧较大，并造成盘面偶尔出 ...

2014/2015至2017/2018产季，美国一直是中国高粱的最大供应国。美国对华挑起第一轮贸易摩擦 后，加上禽流感出现，导致美国高粱对华出口大幅下滑。中方开启采购来源的多元化布局，阿根廷和澳 大利亚高粱的市场份额开始提升。中国未来数年有望持续大量采购高粱，这为阿根廷带来新的机遇。 对部分阿根廷农户而言，高粱销售过去存在诸多不确定性，但如今局面已改变。高粱不再仅是饲料 原料，还被纳入多国饮食体系。中国国民白酒的酿造就是以高粱为核心原料。如今，阿根廷高粱成为全 球最大买家中国的刚需品。 全球高粱生产高度集中在10个国家，美国位居全球高粱产量榜首，阿根廷位列第九。在需求方面， 主要进口国是中国、墨西哥、欧盟和日本。中国已成为全球最大的高粱进口国。中国的高粱进口主要依 赖阿根廷、美国和澳大利亚。 阿根廷《国家报》2月2日文章，原题：中国白酒需求使中国成为阿根廷高粱出口最大的买家 【中国白酒网】近期的一份报告显示，截至去年11月中旬，阿根廷的高粱价格一度跌至22万比索/ 吨（约合1056元人民币/吨），此后开始持续上涨。高粱价格的回升，核心原因是中国的大量采购。上 一产季，阿根廷对华高粱出口量达140万吨，超过美国 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, Yunnan's import and export trade volume of agricultural products with ASEAN reached 36.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - The import value of durian, longan, and mangosteen ranked first in the country [2] - The export value of dried and fresh fruits, nuts, vegetables, and edible fungi ranked third in the country [2] Group 2 - In 2025, the import value of ASEAN fruits at the Tianbao Port reached 4.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 90 times [2] - Tianbao Port has become the third-largest land port for durian imports in the country [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by international trade policies and supply - demand dynamics. The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure, and the domestic soybean and bean -粕 markets are in a state of high inventory and structural shortage expectations. The protein -粕 market will oscillate, with the bean -粕 05 contract ranging from 2700 - 2870 [6]. - The rapeseed -粕 market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is greatly disturbed by news related to imported rapeseed supply. Rapeseed -粕 mainly follows the protein -粕 market trend, with potential for a stronger performance but also risks of mood reversal. The 05 contract is expected to be in the range of 2300 - 2450 [45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean and Bean -粕 Market 3.1.1 International Situation - China maintains a 13% import tariff on US soybeans, and commercial purchases are still difficult. The progress of China's soybean purchases from the US is slower than expected, and the optimistic sentiment for exports is cooling. The focus of the January USDA report is whether US soybean exports will be adjusted downward, which could lead to an increase in the stock - to - consumption ratio. The CBOT soybean futures are oscillating downward [6]. - Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, and harvesting has begun in some areas. There is no weather premium on the futures, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, and the spot supply of bean -粕 from oil mills is still relatively abundant. Downstream feed enterprises have high inventories and limited demand, with average pick - up. Oil mill bean -粕 inventories continue to accumulate and remain at a high level [6]. - In the first quarter, the forward supply gap of imported soybeans in China has been partially repaired, but the soybean purchase plan from the US needs to be observed. The expectation of tightened customs policies for arriving ships has caused temporary supply concerns, but given the high inventories of soybeans and bean -粕, there is a risk of a reversal in market sentiment [6]. 3.1.3 Price and Cost - The USDA's December report predicts that in the 2025/26 season, global soybean production will be 422.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.4 million tons compared to the previous year; the demand for soybean crushing will be 365.24 million tons, an increase of 7.04 million tons; and the export volume will be 187 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons. The final inventory will be 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons. The supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly [8]. - The price of imported soybeans is affected by the futures price, premium, and shipping costs. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the inverse relationship between the futures price and the premium [17]. 3.1.4 Purchase and Inventory - As of December 30, the purchase progress for the December 2025 shipment was 100%, 99.33% for January 2026, 82.82% for February 2026, and 77.47% for March 2026 [27]. - As of December 26, the oil mill bean -粕 inventory was 116.75 million tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous month and a 47.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The physical inventory of bean -粕 in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, a 13.54% increase from the end of the previous month and an 11.97% increase compared to the same period last year [34]. 3.1.5 Oil Mill Operations - In December 2025, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 9.0675 million tons, a 0.55% increase from the previous month and a 9.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The annual soybean crushing volume in 2025 was 101.728 million tons, a 6.35% increase compared to the previous year [31]. 3.2 Rapeseed -粕 Market 3.2.1 International Situation - Last week, ICE rapeseed futures oscillated at a low level. Trading was light before the New Year's Day holiday. The futures declined slightly due to the pressure of a bumper rapeseed harvest during the week and were supported by the rise in the vegetable oil market on the weekend. The settlement price of the main rapeseed futures contract on the weekend was 603.9 Canadian dollars, a 7.6 - Canadian - dollar decrease from the previous week, a 1.2% decline, and a 20.1 - Canadian - dollar decrease compared to the previous year, a 3.2% decline [45]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Canada's insistence on imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has led to no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. There are basically no new purchase orders for Canadian rapeseed, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed -粕 in oil mills are at a low level. Rapeseed crushing plants are mostly shut down. As the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed -粕 in feed decreases, and market trading volume is limited, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [45]. - China is actively seeking alternative imports of rapeseed -粕 from multiple sources, and relevant news will have a significant impact on the futures [45]. 3.2.3 Policy Impact - The preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed maintains a 75.8% deposit for exporters, closing the window for importing Canadian rapeseed. This will significantly increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed, reducing import willingness, tightening the domestic rapeseed industry supply chain, and changing the current pattern of weak supply and demand in the rapeseed -粕 market [46]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - As of the first week, the rapeseed crushing plant operating rate was 0%, and the rapeseed -粕 production was 0 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed -粕 in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and there was no trading in the rapeseed -粕 market [61][64]. - As of the first week, the oil mill rapeseed -粕 inventory was 0 tons, the granular rapeseed -粕 inventory was 16.7 million tons, and the consumption was 0.8 million tons [69]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The bean -粕 05 contract basis was 296 yuan/ton, compared to 311 yuan/ton the previous week. The bean -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 101 yuan/ton, compared to - 106 yuan/ton the previous week [39]. - The rapeseed -粕 05 contract basis was 119 yuan/ton, compared to 93 yuan/ton the previous week. The rapeseed -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 47 yuan/ton, compared to - 59 yuan/ton the previous week [75]. - The soybean oil - to - bean -粕 ratio was 2.85, compared to 2.82 the previous week. The spread between the main contracts of bean -粕 and rapeseed -粕 was 393 yuan/ton, compared to 399 yuan/ton the previous week [82].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent shipment of 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China, marking the first shipment of the new season, while total purchases by Chinese buyers since late October have reached 2.85 million tons, significantly below the target of 12 million tons set by the U.S. [1] - The normal annual export scale of U.S. soybeans to China ranges between 20 to 30 million tons, typically concentrated before March of the following year [1]. - In December, the expected total soybean arrivals in China are projected to be 8 million tons, with most still sourced from Brazil [2]. Group 2 - Following the successful first shipment of Australian canola to China in November, Chinese buyers have recently ordered 10 ships of Australian canola, indicating high substitutability between canola and soybeans [2]. - The China National Grain Reserves Corporation plans to auction 512,500 tons of imported soybeans on December 11 to meet market demand, which has led to a significant drop in soybean meal prices in Dalian [2]. - U.S. corn export inspections reached 1.45 million tons as of December 4, showing a year-on-year increase of 36%, driven by strong demand from Asian buyers, particularly South Korea [2]. Group 3 - In the domestic market, the core wheat-producing areas in Huanghuai are expected to experience cooling and snowfall, prompting agricultural departments to prioritize the management of late-sown wheat and rapeseed before winter [3]. - The major pig farming company, Henan Muyuan, is offering high salaries for positions such as pig engineers and slaughter technicians, with monthly salaries reaching 12,000 yuan and 7,000 yuan respectively [3]. - Henan Muyuan plans to supply 7.16 million tons of live pigs to the market in 2024, with a slaughter capacity of 2.9 million tons, and currently employs 120,000 staff, including 12,000 technical personnel [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the signing of a new agricultural trade agreement between the United States and Israel, which is expected to enhance bilateral trade relations in the agricultural sector [1] Group 2 - The agreement aims to facilitate the exchange of agricultural products, potentially increasing the volume of trade between the two countries [1] - This new trade deal may lead to improved market access for U.S. agricultural exports to Israel, which could benefit American farmers and agribusinesses [1] - The collaboration is anticipated to strengthen food security and promote innovation in agricultural practices between the two nations [1]