投研服务中心 2026.1 @2019 Maike Futures 豆粕 国内供应仍显宽松 国内供应仍显宽松，等待报告 指引 www.mkqh.com 国内供应仍显宽松 - 国际方面： 目前中方对美豆仍保持13%进口关税，商业性采购仍难以展开。中方对美豆采购进度不如预期，出口 乐观情绪逐渐降温。1月USDA报告看点在于美豆出口量是否会相应下调，进而令库消比回升。CBOT 大豆盘面震荡回落。巴西大豆播种工作进入尾声，部分地区已开启收割，盘面暂无天气升水，丰产预 期维持。 - 国内供需： 国内大豆库存高位，油厂豆粕现货供应仍较为充足。下游饲料企业库存较高需求有限，提货一般。油 厂豆粕继续累库，库存仍在高位。一季度国内进口大豆远期供应缺口部分修复，需观察美豆采购计划。 海关收紧到港政策的预期引发阶段性供应担忧，但在大豆、豆粕库存高位的情况下，盘面情绪易有回 落风险。 - 结论及观点： 南美大豆即将上市，CBOT大豆盘面承压震荡回落。盘面交易重心仍在国际大豆贸易流向，关注美豆 出口进度能否支撑CBOT大豆。国内大豆库存高位，油厂豆粕现货供应仍较为充足，但一季度进口大 豆存在结构性紧缺预期。蛋白粕市场震荡运行，豆粕05 ...

从船运机构的数据来看，12月份预计中国到港大豆总量为800万吨，但其中大部分仍来自巴西。 与此同时，在今年11月份首批澳大利亚菜籽对华出口成功之后，近日又有中国买家订购了10船澳洲菜 籽。一般情况下，菜籽和大豆作为油料作物，具备极高的替代性。 （来源：每日粮油） 来源：每日粮油 关注每日粮油，了解全球市场最新动态。 来自美国农业部的最新数据显示，在上周美国完成了本年度对华大豆的首次装运，据悉这批大豆数量为 12万吨，从密西西比港口出发运往中国。 这也是美国新季大豆首次对华装运。而根据此前美国农业部各项出口销售数据显示，自10月底以来中国 买家累计采购的美国新季大豆已经达到了285万吨，但是距离美国官方提及的1200万吨采购目标仍有巨 大差距。 作为对比，正常年度下美国对华大豆出口规模在2000-3000万吨之间，且集中在次年3月份之前。 从中国国内市场来看，本周中储粮还将于12月11日拍卖51.25万吨进口大豆，满足市场需求，受上述消 息影响，本周大连油粕价格出现大幅下挫行情。 除了对华大豆出口贸易不及预期外，美国和加拿大、印度之间的农产品贸易问题仍未能得到妥善解决。 近日美国总统唐纳德·特朗普暗示，他可能会 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the signing of a new agricultural trade agreement between the United States and Israel, which is expected to enhance bilateral trade relations in the agricultural sector [1] Group 2 - The agreement aims to facilitate the exchange of agricultural products, potentially increasing the volume of trade between the two countries [1] - This new trade deal may lead to improved market access for U.S. agricultural exports to Israel, which could benefit American farmers and agribusinesses [1] - The collaboration is anticipated to strengthen food security and promote innovation in agricultural practices between the two nations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S.-China soybean trade is proceeding as planned, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1][3] - Mnuchin highlighted the impact of inflation and tariffs on American farmers, indicating that the soybean trade is a critical issue for the Trump administration [3] - Recent reports indicate that two cargo ships are set to transport the first batch of U.S. soybeans to China since May, after a prolonged period of no orders from China, resulting in significant losses for U.S. farmers [3][4] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Commerce has urged the U.S. to take positive actions to remove unreasonable tariffs to facilitate bilateral trade and enhance global economic stability [4] - U.S. and China reached a consensus on expanding agricultural trade during economic consultations held in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26 [4] - China remains committed to maintaining an open and cooperative approach in global agricultural trade, emphasizing the importance of mutual benefits and a stable trade environment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Corn**: This week, the corn futures and spot prices increased in tandem. Affected by the rising port quotations, the corn futures price continued to rise. The main 2601 contract of corn increased with a reduction in positions, and due to favorable policy expectations, the corn futures and spot prices rebounded jointly. It is recommended to continue participating in short - term long positions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans reached a 17 - month high. Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean harvest forecast. The domestic soybean meal continued its oscillating and strengthening trend due to cost support. The strategy is to hold futures long positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose. The domestic rapeseed oil continued to rise, while palm oil showed weak growth. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, egg futures prices continued to correct. The spot egg prices continued to oscillate. Before February next year, the new supply will continue to decline. If the production capacity is eliminated at an accelerated pace, consider going long at low prices; otherwise, treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the near - and far - month contracts of live pigs rebounded jointly. The spot pig prices continued to be weak. The far - month 2609 contract of live pigs is expected to continue to oscillate and strengthen, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The CONAB monthly report predicts that the soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.6016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6%. The sown area is expected to reach 49.0634 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6%. The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.62 tons per hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 kg per hectare or 0.1% [2]. - **Winter Wheat Sowing**: As of November 12, the sowing of winter wheat across the country has reached 75%. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, it has exceeded 75%. By province, the sowing progress in Henan is nearly 70%, in Shandong it has exceeded 80%, in Anhui it is nearly 70%, in Jiangsu it is 55%, in Shaanxi it has exceeded 85%, and in Shanxi it is 85% [3]. - **Sino - US Agricultural Trade**: China will continue to maintain an open and cooperative attitude and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with global trading partners in agricultural product trade [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but specific data analysis is not provided [5][6][9][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but specific data analysis is not provided [14][17][18][23]. 3.3 Research Team Members - **Wang Na**: The director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years [27]. - **Hou Xueling**: A soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant selections for many years [27]. - **Kong Hailan**: A researcher in the egg and live pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many media interviews [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's commitment to maintaining an open and cooperative approach in global agricultural trade, highlighting its role as a significant participant in this sector [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced the outcomes of the recent China-US economic and trade consultations, which include agreements on agricultural product trade [1] - China is undertaking export control measures for rare earth elements in accordance with laws and regulations, balancing national security interests with international obligations [1]

美国谷物和生物制品协会主席Mark Wilson今天在上海举行的中国国际进口博览会上表示，首批美国高粱船货上周已发往中国。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):彭博：知情人士透露，在上周中美两国达成贸易休战协议后，中国正寻求购买美国小麦，为一年多以来首次。🗒️根据商务部公告，中美吉隆坡经贸磋商已就扩大农产品贸易等问题达成共识。 https://t.co/fuvH64Rphv ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in U.S. soybean prices driven by expectations of increased trade with China, following a consensus reached between the two countries to expand agricultural trade [1][2][4]. Group 1: Trade Developments - On November 5, the Chinese government announced adjustments to tariffs on U.S. imports, coinciding with a consensus on expanding agricultural trade, including a commitment from China to purchase at least 12 million tons of soybeans in the current period and a minimum of 25 million tons annually over the next three years [2][4]. - The U.S. soybean prices have reached a 15-month high, with main contracts surpassing 1100 cents per bushel, marking the most significant increase of the year [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the recent U.S.-China meetings, domestic soybean meal futures in China surged by 1.92%, nearing 3050 yuan per ton, the highest in a month and a half [5]. - The soybean meal ETF saw a net inflow of 42.71 million yuan, with the fund's year-to-date return reaching 8.59% [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that China typically imports 20 to 30 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually, and the recent agreement could significantly reduce U.S. soybean ending stocks, shifting the market from oversupply to a tighter balance [7]. - Brazil has become the largest supplier of soybeans to China, with expectations of increased production, but there may be a supply gap for China in late 2025 to early 2026 due to seasonal export limitations from Brazil [8]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The future of U.S. soybean purchases by China will depend on whether these are policy-driven or commercial purchases, as the tariff structure will influence the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans compared to Brazilian alternatives [8].

Report Information - Report Title: "Bean Meal Weekly Report" [1][27][32] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT US soybean January contract rose 54.5 to close at 1115 cents per bushel, a 5.14% increase; the bean meal 01 contract rose 88 to close at 3021 yuan per ton, a 3.00% increase; the South China bean meal spot price rose 40 to close at 2980 yuan per ton, a 1.36% increase; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 63 to close at 2388 yuan per ton, a 2.71% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 40 to close at 2510 yuan per ton, a 1.62% increase [5][8] - Positive signals from the China-US high-level meeting in South Korea led to the resumption of US soybean purchases by China, with optimistic export demand prospects boosting US soybean prices. The peak pressure on domestic supply has passed, and soybean and bean meal inventories have started to decline. With the strong performance of the external market, the support of import costs has increased, leading to a weekly fluctuating rise in Dalian bean meal futures [5][8] - After the China-US high-level meeting, the resumption of US soybean purchases boosted the external market. The US government shutdown continued, and relevant data such as production were still not released. Precipitation in the Brazilian producing areas was favorable for crop growth, and sowing in the Argentine producing areas began. The domestic supply peak has passed, and the inventory reduction cycle has started, with increased support from import costs. It is expected that Dalian bean meal futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean futures price rose from 1060.50 to 1115.00 cents per bushel, a 5.14% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose from 487.00 to 493.00 dollars per ton, a 1.23% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans rose from 470.00 to 493.00 dollars per ton, a 4.89% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from -204.80 to -206.51 yuan per ton [6] - The DCE bean meal futures price rose from 2933.00 to 3021.00 yuan per ton, a 3.00% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal futures price rose from 2325.00 to 2388.00 yuan per ton, a 2.71% increase; the bean meal - rapeseed meal price difference increased from 608.00 to 633.00 yuan per ton [6] - The spot price of bean meal in East China and South China rose from 2940.00 to 2980.00 yuan per ton, a 1.36% increase; the spot - futures price difference in South China decreased from 7.00 to -41.00 yuan per ton [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of October 26, 2025, the estimated US soybean harvest rate was 84%, with an estimated range of 80% - 88%. As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [9] - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.38 dollars per bushel the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein bean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 299.18 dollars per short ton, up from 288.57 dollars per short ton the previous week [9] - As of the week of October 25, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 34.4%, up from 21.7% the previous week. The Dutch Cooperative Bank predicted that the Brazilian soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season would reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year, with an expected output of 177 million tons, a 3% increase [10] - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the inventory of major oil mills' soybeans was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons from the previous week; the bean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 4.2125 million tons, a decrease of 794,500 tons from the previous week [11] - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average daily trading volume of bean meal nationwide was 111,780 tons, with spot trading volume of 76,220 tons and forward trading volume of 35,560 tons. The average daily delivery volume of bean meal was 196,360 tons, and the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2534 million tons [12] 3. Industry News - In September, the soybean processing volume in Argentina reached 4.13 million tons, the highest in the past 11 months, and exports of soybean products to China increased significantly. The soybean export volume also increased by 42% year - on - year [13] - From October 20 - 24, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, was 467.42 reais per ton, up from 457.72 reais per ton the previous week [13] - As of October 26, the EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, bean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season decreased compared with the same period last year [13] - In the period from October 21 - 27, soybean sowing in Parana state, Brazil, advanced rapidly, and the estimated output in the 2025/26 season was 21.96 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast [14] - The Argentine oilseed workers' union may resume strikes next week [14] - Paraguay's preliminary estimated soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 10.8 million tons, a 5.8% increase from the previous year [14] - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil output, and rapeseed meal output all increased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [15] 4. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, the net position of managed funds in CBOT, the trend of bean meal main contracts, etc. [16][17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent China-U.S. trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have led to a consensus on expanding agricultural product trade, which has relieved American soybean farmers who are hopeful for renewed purchases from Chinese companies [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - Specific measures for the expansion of agricultural trade between China and the U.S. have not yet been disclosed by the Chinese side [3]. - It remains unclear whether the agricultural trade will require renegotiation or if China will resume large-scale imports of other U.S. agricultural products [3]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Farmers - Leaders from the American Soybean Association and the American Soybean Export Council noted that while the trade agreement has not been signed and important details are still undisclosed, the news is still positive for farmers [5]. - In 2024, the total value of U.S. soybean exports is projected to be approximately $24.5 billion, with orders from China exceeding $12.5 billion [7].