天然橡胶供需关系

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天胶或有望延续强势
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-25 23:40
Group 1: Market Trends - Since August 4, natural rubber futures 2601 contract have shown a fluctuating upward trend, reaching a peak of 16,020 yuan/ton on August 19, and closing at 15,905 yuan/ton on August 25 [1] - The global natural rubber market is expected to enter a production increase season from September to November, with a projected slight increase of 0.5% in global production to 14.892 million tons by 2025, primarily driven by major producing countries like Thailand and China [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Three main factors are influencing the supply side of natural rubber prices: 1. Expected production increase in major producing regions due to improved weather conditions, although geopolitical factors and uncertain weather in Q4 may disrupt production [1] 2. Policy disruptions such as state reserve purchases and tariff adjustments affecting the supply landscape, with China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increasing by 3.4% year-on-year in July 2025 [1] 3. Rising domestic inventory levels, with Qingdao's general trade inventory of natural rubber reaching 397,400 tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous year [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand for rubber has shown resilience despite being weaker than last year, supported by ongoing investments in new energy and infrastructure [2] - In July 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 83,000 units, a 42% increase year-on-year, although down 15% from June [2] - The export of tires has slowed due to U.S. tariff policies and EU anti-dumping investigations, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in rubber tire exports from January to July, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the previous year's growth [2] Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term outlook for natural rubber prices suggests a continued strong fluctuation, with caution advised regarding upward potential due to a lack of core bullish factors on the supply side and steady but weak demand [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that the natural rubber futures 2601 contract may continue to show a strong oscillating trend, with support levels at 15,200 to 15,000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 16,000 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3]
天然橡胶压力仍存低位震荡等待驱动
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 05:21
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term natural rubber is in a dilemma with no strong unilateral driver to break the trading range. It may still trade at low levels, and there is unlikely to be a smooth unilateral market. [2][17] - In the medium - to - long - term, there are increasing uncertainties affecting the market, including the supply data after June, the implementation of the EUDR Act, the macro - environment, weather conditions, and the result of the EU anti - dumping investigation. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading approach. [17] 3) Summary by Directory Upstream raw material prices are firm, and subsequent supply will gradually increase - Global natural rubber main producing areas have ended the dry season and entered the transition period, with raw material supply gradually recovering but not surging. Thailand postponed the rubber tapping season to June. [3] - As of May 22, Thai raw material prices are at a relatively high level in the past five years, and domestic prices are also on the high side. [3] Slow rubber inventory reduction and poor tire product sales - As of May 18, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons (0.96%). Qingdao's inventory also decreased, but the overall inventory reduction is slow. [5] - China's auto production and sales in the first four months reached record highs, but it did not significantly improve tire product sales. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises showed a mixed trend, and tire product inventory is slightly increasing. [9] Monitor the increase in zero - tariff imported rubber - In April 2025, China's natural rubber exports increased, and imports decreased compared with the previous month but increased year - on - year. [12] - Since December 1, 2024, China has implemented a zero - tariff policy for natural rubber imported from Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The import volume in the first quarter increased significantly, slowing down the inventory reduction in Yunnan. [14] Summary and outlook - After a sharp decline in early April, natural rubber prices have been consolidating for over a month. Although some positive factors have pushed up the price center, high inventory and weak demand prevent effective breakthroughs. [15][17]