2026年 2 月,上海期货交易所天然橡胶主力合约呈现震荡上行 走势。月初开盘在 16610元/吨, 最低 16515 元/吨, 最高 17370 元/ 吨,月末收盘 17155 元/吨,较上月收盘上涨 840 元/吨。月末持仓 174215 手，较上月末增仓 33980 手。 二、 当月现货市场情况 2月现货市场价格整体呈现上涨趋势。根据现货市场数据、中国 天然橡胶现货领先价格从２月２日的 2323.02 美元/吨上涨至２月 27 日的 2469.42 美元/吨,期间最高价达到 2495.63 美元/吨（2 月 26 日）。20 号胶现货价格也从2月2日的 1951.15 美元/吨上涨至２月 27 日的 2073.48 美元/吨。 成文日期：2026年2月27日 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) 天然橡胶期货月报 一、行情走势回顾 三、主要影响因素 供应端因素 季节性减产：2月中下旬,泰国、印尼等主产国逐步进入低产季, 叠加局部降雨影响出胶量,原料产出同比偏低。国内云南、海南产 区处于冬季停割期,国产胶供应断档,市场整体呈现供应偏紧格局。 出口量下降：20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish and volatile rating for the natural rubber industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Fundamentally, the supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension. Currently, inventory is high, and the bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao are starting to be depleted. The expected decrease in arrivals in the next few months will relieve inventory pressure. However, as the holiday approaches, the tire production capacity utilization rate is gradually declining, and the short - term natural rubber price will run with a bearish and volatile trend [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On February 4, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,175 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 0.86%. The market declined that day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream SCRWF 2024 source in the Shanghai market was 15,900 - 15,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the spot market followed suit. The downstream inquiry atmosphere was average and the market transactions were light. In the producing areas, the spot price decreased slightly while the trading volume was low [1] 2. Supply - Last week, the natural rubber supply showed a downward trend both at home and abroad. Yunnan and Hainan producing areas have fully suspended tapping. Overseas, the weather in Thailand and Vietnam is normal, with northern Thailand having suspended tapping, northeastern Thailand and Vietnam's producing areas approaching the end of the tapping season, and southern Thailand in the peak - production season. Global supply will gradually shift from the peak to the off - season, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken. However, there was still a concentrated arrival in late January in China, and the enthusiasm for rubber purchase by factories was limited after Hainan's suspension. With the supply pressure easing and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, the raw material price is expected to remain strong, and the cost - side support for rubber is relatively strong. According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production should gradually decline starting from January, and it is very likely to decline in the first quarter. Also, according to past rules, the rubber import volume in January and February is likely to decline [2] 3. Demand - On January 30, 2026, China's semi - steel tire production rate was 74.84%, higher than the historical average of the same period; the all - steel tire production rate was 62.44%, also higher than the historical average. Recently, due to the high prices of various raw materials, some sample enterprises began to arrange the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which led to a decline in the overall production capacity utilization rate. In the tire market, the terminal demand for all - steel tires remained weak. In the short term, inventory replenishment was still cautious. Considering the expected small peak of semi - steel tire shipments before the festival, the overall replenishment enthusiasm was still slightly better than that of all - steel tires. All - steel tire shipments were slow and the finished product inventory was high, so some enterprises might moderately reduce production [3] 4. Inventory - As of the end of January, the inventory of natural rubber in the sample warehouses in Qingdao was 591,200 tons, an increase of 71,800 tons or 13.82% from the end of December 2025, with an accelerating inventory accumulation speed. Among them, the inventory in the bonded area was 105,700 tons, an increase of 20,200 tons or 23.63%; the general trade inventory was 485,500 tons, an increase of 51,600 tons or 11.89%. Although the arrival volume of natural rubber decreased and the downstream operating load was reduced, supply exceeded demand, resulting in inventory accumulation in Qingdao [6] 5. Basis - As of February 4, compared with the rubber spot price with Yunnan as the benchmark, the basis was - 285 yuan/ton. In terms of absolute value, it was lower than the annual average basis, at a historical low and with room for expansion [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bearish and volatile" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short term, the price of natural rubber will fluctuate bearishly, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Performance - On February 4, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,385 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.64% [1] - The intended transaction price of the mainstream supply of 24-year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,050 - 16,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The intended transaction price of the mainstream supply of Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,550 - 16,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - In the spot market, the futures market fluctuated strongly, and the spot market followed the increase, but the downstream demand was weak and the trading was light [1] 2. Supply - Last week, the supply of natural rubber gradually declined both at home and abroad, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken [2] - The cost of rubber is strongly supported, and the raw material price is expected to remain firm [2] - According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production is expected to decline in the first quarter, and imports are likely to decline in January and February [2] 3. Demand - On January 30, 2026, the operating rates of semi-steel and all-steel tires in China were 74.84% and 62.44% respectively, both higher than the historical average [3] - Due to high raw material costs, some sample enterprises arranged for the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which will lead to a decline in production capacity utilization [3] - The terminal demand for all-steel tires is weak, and the replenishment enthusiasm for semi-steel tires is slightly better [3] 4. Inventory - As of the end of January, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 591,200 tons, an increase of 71,800 tons or 13.82% from the end of December 2025, and the inventory accumulation accelerated [4] - The inventory in the bonded area was 105,700 tons, an increase of 20,200 tons or 23.63% from the end of December 2025 [4] - The general trade inventory was 485,500 tons, an increase of 51,600 tons or 11.89% from the end of December 2025 [4] 5. Basis - As of February 3, the basis was -280 yuan/ton, lower than the annual average and at a historical low, with room for expansion [5]

Group 1: Market Trends - Since August 4, natural rubber futures 2601 contract have shown a fluctuating upward trend, reaching a peak of 16,020 yuan/ton on August 19, and closing at 15,905 yuan/ton on August 25 [1] - The global natural rubber market is expected to enter a production increase season from September to November, with a projected slight increase of 0.5% in global production to 14.892 million tons by 2025, primarily driven by major producing countries like Thailand and China [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Three main factors are influencing the supply side of natural rubber prices: 1. Expected production increase in major producing regions due to improved weather conditions, although geopolitical factors and uncertain weather in Q4 may disrupt production [1] 2. Policy disruptions such as state reserve purchases and tariff adjustments affecting the supply landscape, with China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increasing by 3.4% year-on-year in July 2025 [1] 3. Rising domestic inventory levels, with Qingdao's general trade inventory of natural rubber reaching 397,400 tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous year [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand for rubber has shown resilience despite being weaker than last year, supported by ongoing investments in new energy and infrastructure [2] - In July 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 83,000 units, a 42% increase year-on-year, although down 15% from June [2] - The export of tires has slowed due to U.S. tariff policies and EU anti-dumping investigations, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in rubber tire exports from January to July, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the previous year's growth [2] Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term outlook for natural rubber prices suggests a continued strong fluctuation, with caution advised regarding upward potential due to a lack of core bullish factors on the supply side and steady but weak demand [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that the natural rubber futures 2601 contract may continue to show a strong oscillating trend, with support levels at 15,200 to 15,000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 16,000 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term natural rubber is in a dilemma with no strong unilateral driver to break the trading range. It may still trade at low levels, and there is unlikely to be a smooth unilateral market. [2][17] - In the medium - to - long - term, there are increasing uncertainties affecting the market, including the supply data after June, the implementation of the EUDR Act, the macro - environment, weather conditions, and the result of the EU anti - dumping investigation. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading approach. [17] 3) Summary by Directory Upstream raw material prices are firm, and subsequent supply will gradually increase - Global natural rubber main producing areas have ended the dry season and entered the transition period, with raw material supply gradually recovering but not surging. Thailand postponed the rubber tapping season to June. [3] - As of May 22, Thai raw material prices are at a relatively high level in the past five years, and domestic prices are also on the high side. [3] Slow rubber inventory reduction and poor tire product sales - As of May 18, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons (0.96%). Qingdao's inventory also decreased, but the overall inventory reduction is slow. [5] - China's auto production and sales in the first four months reached record highs, but it did not significantly improve tire product sales. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises showed a mixed trend, and tire product inventory is slightly increasing. [9] Monitor the increase in zero - tariff imported rubber - In April 2025, China's natural rubber exports increased, and imports decreased compared with the previous month but increased year - on - year. [12] - Since December 1, 2024, China has implemented a zero - tariff policy for natural rubber imported from Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The import volume in the first quarter increased significantly, slowing down the inventory reduction in Yunnan. [14] Summary and outlook - After a sharp decline in early April, natural rubber prices have been consolidating for over a month. Although some positive factors have pushed up the price center, high inventory and weak demand prevent effective breakthroughs. [15][17]