Core Viewpoint - The domestic rubber market is currently experiencing a lackluster performance, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the potential for a strong upward trend similar to September of last year depends on market momentum changes [1] Supply Side Analysis - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, with Thailand's rubber water price at 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg last year, while Yunnan's rubber water price slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - From January to July, China imported a total of 1.6534 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports reached 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, totaling 3.56 million tons with a 21.92% increase [2] - Monthly data shows a narrowing increase in natural rubber imports since June, turning negative in July, primarily due to frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia delaying rubber tapping operations, leading to tighter supply [2] Demand Side Analysis - In July, there were signs of improvement in demand, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, an increase of 8.87% month-on-month and 11.48% year-on-year, while total exports from January to July were 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires is at a low level, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating some specifications are even out of stock [3] Price Trends and Market Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period is crucial for channel replenishment [4] - Continuous rainfall has significantly disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling short of expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The raw material price trend will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [4] - The basis is - 975 with a spot price of 14,650, showing a bearish signal [4] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4] - The price is running below the 20 - day line which is flat, showing a bearish signal [4] - The main positions are net short and the short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [4] 2. Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (not for delivery) declined on August 22 [8] Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14] - The Qingdao region inventory has changed slightly recently [17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period but declined month - on - month [29] - The tire industry's exports have rebounded [32] 3. Multi - empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high [6] - Spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - Domestic anti - involution [6] Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [6] - Domestic economic indicators are bearish [6] 4. Basis - The basis weakened on August 21 [35]

Report Information - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rubber market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental analysis shows that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4] - Based on the basis, the spot price is 14,500 with a basis of - 1,050, indicating a bearish signal [4] - In terms of inventory, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased year - on - year but decreased week - on - week, showing a neutral situation [4] - The disk shows that the 20 - day moving average is upward, but the price is running below it, which is neutral [4] - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4] 2. Fundamental Data (1) Supply and Demand - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and the lack of seasonal destocking in Qingdao [6] (2) Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 8 [8] (3) Inventory - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14] - The inventory in Qingdao has changed slightly recently [17] (4) Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] (5) Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [29] - Tire industry exports are falling [32] (6) Basis - The basis strengthened on August 8 [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with market sentiment dominating and short - term trading recommended. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. Factors such as domestic economic recovery, high downstream consumption, and strong raw material prices are positive, while supply increase, rising market inventory, and a negative external environment are negative [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The overall situation is neutral. The basis is positive with the spot price at 13750 and the basis at 100. The inventory situation is mixed, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory increasing. The market is bearish in terms of the 20 - day line and the main position, and short - term trading is recommended due to market sentiment [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Likely Factors**: Domestic economic recovery, high downstream consumption, and strong raw material prices [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Supply increase, rising market inventory, and a negative external environment [8]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot price of the 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 5 [10]. 3.4 Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [16][19]. 3.5 Import - The import quantity shows a seasonal decline [21]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are declining [23][27][29]. 3.7 Basis - The basis changed to a spot premium on June 5 [31].