Core Viewpoint - The domestic rubber market is currently experiencing a lackluster performance, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the potential for a strong upward trend similar to September of last year depends on market momentum changes [1] Supply Side Analysis - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, with Thailand's rubber water price at 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg last year, while Yunnan's rubber water price slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - From January to July, China imported a total of 1.6534 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports reached 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, totaling 3.56 million tons with a 21.92% increase [2] - Monthly data shows a narrowing increase in natural rubber imports since June, turning negative in July, primarily due to frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia delaying rubber tapping operations, leading to tighter supply [2] Demand Side Analysis - In July, there were signs of improvement in demand, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, an increase of 8.87% month-on-month and 11.48% year-on-year, while total exports from January to July were 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires is at a low level, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating some specifications are even out of stock [3] Price Trends and Market Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period is crucial for channel replenishment [4] - Continuous rainfall has significantly disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling short of expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The raw material price trend will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [4] - The basis is - 975 with a spot price of 14,650, showing a bearish signal [4] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4] - The price is running below the 20 - day line which is flat, showing a bearish signal [4] - The main positions are net short and the short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [4] 2. Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (not for delivery) declined on August 22 [8] Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14] - The Qingdao region inventory has changed slightly recently [17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period but declined month - on - month [29] - The tire industry's exports have rebounded [32] 3. Multi - empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high [6] - Spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - Domestic anti - involution [6] Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [6] - Domestic economic indicators are bearish [6] 4. Basis - The basis weakened on August 21 [35]

Report Information - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rubber market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental analysis shows that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4] - Based on the basis, the spot price is 14,500 with a basis of - 1,050, indicating a bearish signal [4] - In terms of inventory, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased year - on - year but decreased week - on - week, showing a neutral situation [4] - The disk shows that the 20 - day moving average is upward, but the price is running below it, which is neutral [4] - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4] 2. Fundamental Data (1) Supply and Demand - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and the lack of seasonal destocking in Qingdao [6] (2) Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 8 [8] (3) Inventory - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14] - The inventory in Qingdao has changed slightly recently [17] (4) Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] (5) Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [29] - Tire industry exports are falling [32] (6) Basis - The basis strengthened on August 8 [35]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年6月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 多空因素及主要风险点 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货13750，基差100 偏多 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 • 利多 • 1、国内经济逐步复苏 • 2、下游消费高位 • 3、原料价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、市场库存增加 • 3、外部环境偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济 ...