Group 1: Market Overview - The overall performance of domestic rubber products has been flat, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the market's ability to replicate last September's strong rally remains to be observed [1] - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, leading to a decrease in Thai rubber prices to 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg a year ago, while Yunnan rubber prices slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - Cumulative imports of natural rubber from January to July reached 1.6534 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports totaled 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, indicating a total import growth of 21.92% [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - In July, there were signs of improvement in the market, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, representing an 8.87% month-on-month increase and an 11.48% year-on-year increase, while cumulative exports from January to July totaled 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires remains low, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating potential supply constraints [3] Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period typically sees significant restocking by channels and end stores [4] - Continuous rainfall has disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling significantly below expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The price trend of raw materials will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic rubber market is currently experiencing a lackluster performance, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the potential for a strong upward trend similar to September of last year depends on market momentum changes [1] Supply Side Analysis - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, with Thailand's rubber water price at 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg last year, while Yunnan's rubber water price slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - From January to July, China imported a total of 1.6534 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports reached 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, totaling 3.56 million tons with a 21.92% increase [2] - Monthly data shows a narrowing increase in natural rubber imports since June, turning negative in July, primarily due to frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia delaying rubber tapping operations, leading to tighter supply [2] Demand Side Analysis - In July, there were signs of improvement in demand, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, an increase of 8.87% month-on-month and 11.48% year-on-year, while total exports from January to July were 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires is at a low level, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating some specifications are even out of stock [3] Price Trends and Market Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period is crucial for channel replenishment [4] - Continuous rainfall has significantly disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling short of expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The raw material price trend will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]

期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13880元/吨，较前一日变动+75元/吨。NR主力合约12580元/吨，较前一日变动+335 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13850元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13950元/吨， 较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1760美元/吨，较前一日变动+30美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1700美元/吨，较前一日变动+30美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11400元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前4个月，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为101.4万吨， 同比增2%。其中，标胶合计出口58.2万吨，同比降6%；烟片胶出口14.4万吨，同比增21%；乳胶出口28.2万吨，同 比增16%。1-4月，出口到中国天然橡胶合计为45.1万吨，同比增31%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为27.5万吨，同 比增5%；烟片胶出口到中国合计为4.9万吨，同比增345%；乳胶出口到中国合计为12.5万吨，同比增7 ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-28 4月小客车轮胎出口下滑 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14495元/吨，较前一日变动+95元/吨。NR主力合约12915元/吨，较前一日变动+270 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14400元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14470元/吨， 较前一日变动+120元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1810美元/吨，较前一日变动+30美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1750美元/吨，较前一日变动+30美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12200元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11650元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前4个月，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为101.4万吨， 同比增2%。其中，标胶合计出口58.2万吨，同比降6%；烟片胶出口14.4万吨，同比增21%；乳胶出口28.2万吨，同 比增16%。1-4月，出口到中国天然橡胶合计为45.1万吨，同比增31%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为27.5万吨，同 比增5%；烟片胶出口到中国合 ...

Group 1: Rebar Market - Financial policies are supporting market expectations, leading to a stable night market for rebar [1] - Current steel mill profits are good, but rebar supply pressure is increasing, with weekly production exceeding last year's levels [1] - Market skepticism exists regarding external demand and domestic steel demand resilience, leading to a stalemate in price negotiations [1] - Rebar market inventory is low, providing some support for prices, but high production and seasonal demand decline are expected to keep prices fluctuating at low levels [1] Group 2: Gold Market - The pricing mechanism for gold is shifting from being based on real interest rates to central bank purchases, reflecting a decentralized and risk-averse demand [1] - The dollar's credit is under strain due to debt issues, highlighting gold's role in the de-dollarization process [1] - Geopolitical risks are easing, but trade tensions from tariffs are sustaining market demand for gold as a safe haven [1][2] - Recent U.S. labor market data shows strong non-farm employment, with unemployment stable at 4.2%, while inflation data indicates a slight decrease [2] - Expectations for a cautious interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve may influence gold prices, with reduced safe-haven buying anticipated [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - The supply side is favorable as major producing regions are entering the seasonal tapping period, with expected increases in supply in May [3] - Demand from semi-steel tire manufacturers is weak, leading to lower capacity utilization rates [3] - China's small passenger car tire exports increased to 287,500 tons in March, up 31.48% month-on-month, while truck tire exports also showed strong performance [3] - Overall inventory levels remain high, with a slow accumulation of natural rubber stocks, indicating a bearish trend for prices [3]