从进口数据来看，7月国内天胶进口同比由正转负，混合胶进口同比增幅也明显收窄。海关总署公布的 数据显示，1—7月，全国天胶累计进口165.34万吨，同比增长35.01%；混合橡胶累计进口190.67万吨， 同比增长12.47%。天胶与混合胶合计进口356万吨，同比增长21.92%。 基本面与宏观面共振 近期，国内橡胶系品种行情整体表现平淡，RU2601合约受前高压力位制约，暂未形成有效突破。展望 后市，随着仓单压力逐渐减轻，天胶期货能否复制去年9月的强势上涨行情，需进一步观察市场动能变 化。 供应上量节奏不及预期 供应端，海内外主产区受天气因素影响较为显著。截至8月末，泰国合艾胶水报价为54.2泰铢/公斤，较 去年同期的64.4泰铢/公斤下降15%；云南胶水报价为14500元/吨，较去年同期的14400元/吨微涨0.7%。 需求端，7月市场出现好转迹象：全钢胎产能利用率环比、同比均显著提升，重卡销量同比也明显走 强。此外，轮胎出口继续保持良好态势，7月国内轮胎出口环比、同比均再创新高。海关总署公布的数 据显示，当月中国轮胎出口量达81.26万吨，环比增长8.87%，同比增长11.48%；1—7月累计出口493. ...

供应端，海内外主产区受天气因素影响较为显著。截至8月末，泰国合艾胶水报价为54.2泰铢／公斤， 较去年同期的64.4泰铢／公斤下降15%；云南胶水报价为14500元／吨，较去年同期的14400元／吨微涨 0.7%。 供应上量节奏不及预期 从进口数据来看，7月国内天胶进口同比由正转负，混合胶进口同比增幅也明显收窄。海关总署公布的 数据显示，1—7月，全国天胶累计进口165.34万吨，同比增长35.01%；混合橡胶累计进口190.67万吨， 同比增长12.47%。天胶与混合胶合计进口356万吨，同比增长21.92%。 从单月数据来看，6月天胶进口同比增量开始收窄，7月进一步转为同比负增长，混合胶进口同比增幅也 出现收敛。这主要是因为，6月以来以泰国为代表的东南亚产胶国受频繁降雨影响，割胶作业延迟，供 应逐步趋紧。因此，预计三季度末海外主产区供应增幅仍可能不及预期，整体上量节奏将继续放缓。 全钢胎成下游新亮点 需求端，7月市场出现好转迹象：全钢胎产能利用率环比、同比均显著提升，重卡销量同比也明显走 强。此外，轮胎出口继续保持良好态势，7月国内轮胎出口环比、同比均再创新高。海关总署公布的数 据显示，当月中国轮胎出口量 ...

Group 1: Rebar Market - Financial policies are supporting market expectations, leading to a stable night market for rebar [1] - Current steel mill profits are good, but rebar supply pressure is increasing, with weekly production exceeding last year's levels [1] - Market skepticism exists regarding external demand and domestic steel demand resilience, leading to a stalemate in price negotiations [1] - Rebar market inventory is low, providing some support for prices, but high production and seasonal demand decline are expected to keep prices fluctuating at low levels [1] Group 2: Gold Market - The pricing mechanism for gold is shifting from being based on real interest rates to central bank purchases, reflecting a decentralized and risk-averse demand [1] - The dollar's credit is under strain due to debt issues, highlighting gold's role in the de-dollarization process [1] - Geopolitical risks are easing, but trade tensions from tariffs are sustaining market demand for gold as a safe haven [1][2] - Recent U.S. labor market data shows strong non-farm employment, with unemployment stable at 4.2%, while inflation data indicates a slight decrease [2] - Expectations for a cautious interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve may influence gold prices, with reduced safe-haven buying anticipated [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - The supply side is favorable as major producing regions are entering the seasonal tapping period, with expected increases in supply in May [3] - Demand from semi-steel tire manufacturers is weak, leading to lower capacity utilization rates [3] - China's small passenger car tire exports increased to 287,500 tons in March, up 31.48% month-on-month, while truck tire exports also showed strong performance [3] - Overall inventory levels remain high, with a slow accumulation of natural rubber stocks, indicating a bearish trend for prices [3]