Group 1: Market Overview - The overall performance of domestic rubber products has been flat, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the market's ability to replicate last September's strong rally remains to be observed [1] - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, leading to a decrease in Thai rubber prices to 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg a year ago, while Yunnan rubber prices slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - Cumulative imports of natural rubber from January to July reached 1.6534 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports totaled 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, indicating a total import growth of 21.92% [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - In July, there were signs of improvement in the market, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, representing an 8.87% month-on-month increase and an 11.48% year-on-year increase, while cumulative exports from January to July totaled 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires remains low, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating potential supply constraints [3] Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period typically sees significant restocking by channels and end stores [4] - Continuous rainfall has disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling significantly below expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The price trend of raw materials will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic rubber market is currently experiencing a lackluster performance, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the potential for a strong upward trend similar to September of last year depends on market momentum changes [1] Supply Side Analysis - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, with Thailand's rubber water price at 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg last year, while Yunnan's rubber water price slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - From January to July, China imported a total of 1.6534 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports reached 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, totaling 3.56 million tons with a 21.92% increase [2] - Monthly data shows a narrowing increase in natural rubber imports since June, turning negative in July, primarily due to frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia delaying rubber tapping operations, leading to tighter supply [2] Demand Side Analysis - In July, there were signs of improvement in demand, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, an increase of 8.87% month-on-month and 11.48% year-on-year, while total exports from January to July were 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires is at a low level, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating some specifications are even out of stock [3] Price Trends and Market Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period is crucial for channel replenishment [4] - Continuous rainfall has significantly disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling short of expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The raw material price trend will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated cautiously bearish [5] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, as market sentiment eases, rubber prices stopped falling. With the full opening of the main producing areas, the supply of natural rubber is expected to increase. Although there is still rainfall in the producing areas, raw material prices remain firm. China's imports in April increased year-on-year, and the storage rate at Qingdao Port has increased. Downstream tire demand lacks highlights, but there may still be support from pre - export rush after the Sino - US trade easing. At the current low price level, attention should be paid to the intensity of demand recovery [5] - For BR, the rebound of crude oil prices led to a stop - fall rebound of BR. After a significant decline, the production loss of BR has increased. The weak price of natural rubber has led to a continuous decline in the price difference between natural rubber and BR, weakening the support for downstream replacement demand. With Yanshan Petrochemical's maintenance this week and low private device loads due to upstream losses, the overall supply pressure is small and the output may continue to decline this week. Downstream semi - steel tire factories reported weak orders, and the supply - demand pattern shows a double - weak situation [5] Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - On the futures side, on May 29, 2025, the closing price of the RU main contract was 13,880 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,580 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton. On the spot side, the price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,700 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Export and Production Data - From January to April 2025, Thailand exported 1.014 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a year - on - year increase of 2%. Exports to China totaled 451,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31% [2] - From January to April 2025, Vietnam exported 168,000 tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [2] - The ANRPC's April 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in April would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, a 3.9% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 1.3% to 1.248 million tons, a 10.4% decrease from the previous month [2] - In April 2025, China's passenger car tire exports were 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.94%. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 1.0461 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.04% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On May 29, 2025, the RU basis was - 30 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was - 70 yuan/ton (- 75), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 7,005 yuan/ton (+178.50), the NR basis was 76.00 yuan/ton (- 117.00); the price of whole latex was 13,850 yuan/ton (+100), the price of mixed rubber was 13,950 yuan/ton (+150), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+100); the STR20 was quoted at 1,760 US dollars/ton (+30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 1,400 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,050 yuan/ton (+150) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 67.93 baht/kg (- 0.62), the price of Thai latex was 62.25 baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.95 baht/kg (- 1.65), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 12.30 baht/kg (+1.15) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.80% (- 1.29%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.51% (- 1.23%) [4] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,308,358 tons (- 34,097.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 614,584 tons (+395), the RU futures inventory was 199,540 tons (- 730), and the NR futures inventory was 43,544 tons (- 26,713) [4] BR - **Spot and Spreads**: On May 29, 2025, the BR basis was 5 yuan/ton (- 145), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,400 yuan/ton (+50), the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 2,105 yuan/ton (- 2) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 73.54% (- 2.02%) [4] - **Inventory**: The inventory of BR traders was 6,360 tons (+560), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 28,100 tons (+1,100) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral [5] - BR is rated cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the rubber price is predicted to continue the oscillating trend due to the entanglement of long and short factors [5] - The contradiction of butadiene rubber lies in the upstream butadiene raw materials, and its price is more likely to fluctuate following the price of butadiene [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,495 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,915 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan-produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; Thai 20 standard rubber was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the ex-factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Transfar BR9000 was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Recent Market Information - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first four months of 2025 totaled 1.014 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Exports to China totaled 451,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 31% [2] - The ANRPC predicted that the global natural rubber production in April 2025 would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and the consumption would decrease by 1.3% to 1.248 million tons [2] - In April 2025, China's passenger car tire exports were 257,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.39% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.94%. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 1.0461 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.04% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On May 27, 2025, the RU basis was -95 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 25 yuan/ton (-25), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -6,495 yuan/ton (+5.29), and the NR basis was 95 yuan/ton (-46) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 68.90 Thai baht/kg (+0.61), Thai latex was 62.75 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (-0.70), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 10.65 Thai baht/kg (+0.70) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 62.09% (+2.21%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 73.74% (+2.53%) [3] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,342,455 tons (-13,072), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 614,584 tons (+395), the RU futures inventory was 199,540 tons (-730), and the NR futures inventory was 43,544 tons (-26,713) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On May 27, 2025, the BR basis was -45 yuan/ton (-100), the ex-factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 10,000 yuan/ton (-200), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Transfar BR9000 was 11,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -1,829 yuan/ton (-27) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high-cis butadiene rubber was 75.57% (-3.63%) [3] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,800 tons (+330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,000 tons (+350) [3] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance, as the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand lacks highlights, but there may be support from export rush orders [5] - For BR, maintain a cautiously bearish stance, as the price is more likely to fluctuate following the price of butadiene, and the supply and demand contradiction is not prominent [6]

Group 1: Rebar Market - Financial policies are supporting market expectations, leading to a stable night market for rebar [1] - Current steel mill profits are good, but rebar supply pressure is increasing, with weekly production exceeding last year's levels [1] - Market skepticism exists regarding external demand and domestic steel demand resilience, leading to a stalemate in price negotiations [1] - Rebar market inventory is low, providing some support for prices, but high production and seasonal demand decline are expected to keep prices fluctuating at low levels [1] Group 2: Gold Market - The pricing mechanism for gold is shifting from being based on real interest rates to central bank purchases, reflecting a decentralized and risk-averse demand [1] - The dollar's credit is under strain due to debt issues, highlighting gold's role in the de-dollarization process [1] - Geopolitical risks are easing, but trade tensions from tariffs are sustaining market demand for gold as a safe haven [1][2] - Recent U.S. labor market data shows strong non-farm employment, with unemployment stable at 4.2%, while inflation data indicates a slight decrease [2] - Expectations for a cautious interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve may influence gold prices, with reduced safe-haven buying anticipated [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - The supply side is favorable as major producing regions are entering the seasonal tapping period, with expected increases in supply in May [3] - Demand from semi-steel tire manufacturers is weak, leading to lower capacity utilization rates [3] - China's small passenger car tire exports increased to 287,500 tons in March, up 31.48% month-on-month, while truck tire exports also showed strong performance [3] - Overall inventory levels remain high, with a slow accumulation of natural rubber stocks, indicating a bearish trend for prices [3]