太阳能革命
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白银表现暗藏玄机:涨幅力压黄金,太阳能革命引爆“沉默黑马”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-11-28 00:25
Core Viewpoint - Silver is gaining attention as a strong investment opportunity due to structural supply shortages and increasing demand from renewable energy technologies, particularly solar panels [2][5]. Group 1: Silver Price Performance - Since October 3, 2023, spot silver has surged 163% from a low of $20.67 per ounce to a historical high of $54.38 per ounce on November 13, 2023, followed by a correction of approximately 5.6% [2]. - In comparison, spot gold rose 142% from $1,813.90 per ounce on October 3, 2023, to a record of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, 2023, also experiencing a correction of about 5.0% [2]. - Although silver has not significantly outperformed gold, its stronger percentage increase occurred with less media attention compared to gold [2]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to increase from 644 million ounces in 2023 to 689.1 million ounces in 2024, with silver used in solar panels rising from 191.8 million ounces to 243.7 million ounces, marking a 158% increase from 94.4 million ounces in 2020 [6]. - The global solar capacity is expected to add approximately 600 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, reaching nearly 1,000 GW by 2030 [7]. - The International Energy Agency anticipates an addition of 4,000 GW of solar power capacity from 2024 to 2030 [8]. Group 3: Market Supply Shortages - By 2030, the demand from the solar sector alone could increase silver demand by nearly 150 million ounces annually, representing a 13% increase on top of the projected physical demand of 1.169 billion ounces in 2024 [9]. - The silver market is expected to face a significant supply gap of 501.4 million ounces in 2024, a substantial increase from 19.4 million ounces in 2023 [10]. - Most silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, meaning supply growth is largely dependent on the economic conditions of those metals rather than silver's fundamentals [10]. - Predictions indicate that global silver production may decline from an expected 944 million ounces in 2023 to 901 million ounces by 2030, due to some mines anticipated to close before 2030 [11].