1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. In the short term, after a continuous adjustment, the index rebounded and entered an oscillation phase. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the domestic policy environment provides support for the index and overseas pressure factors have marginally eased, the pre - holiday market risk appetite has decreased, sector rotation has accelerated, and the daily trading volume of A - shares has fallen to the range of 2 - 2.3 trillion yuan, which means it is more difficult for the pre - holiday index to make a strong upward attack, and it is more likely to accumulate momentum for subsequent upward movement through oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price of DR001 was 1.37 with a 0.49bp increase, DR007 was 1.54 with a 1.87bp decrease, GC001 was 1.52 with a 10.00bp decrease, GC007 was 1.65 with a 3.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M was 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond was 1.31 with no change, 5 - year treasury bond was 1.47 with a 0.75bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond was 1.79 with a 0.75bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond was 4.16 with a 6.00bp decrease [5] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, the net daily injection was 4035 billion yuan. This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The closing price of IF当月 decreased by 0.3% to 4716, IH当月 remained unchanged at 3092, IC当月 increased by 0.4% to 8342, and IM当月 increased by 0.1% to 8260. The trading volume of IF decreased by 4.4% to 62400, IH increased by 4.6% to 30833, IC increased by 7.5% to 101790, and IM increased by 0.3% to 133571. The open interest of IF decreased by 0.2% to 281980, IH increased by 0.3% to 101315, IC decreased by 0.6% to 294295, and IM increased by 0.4% to 380005 [7] - **Stock Market**: The closing price of CSI 300 decreased by 0.22% to 4713.8, SSE 50 increased by 0.03% to 3088.5, CSI 500 increased by 0.23% to 8325.8, and CSI 1000 decreased by 0.13% to 8239.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets was 20012 billion yuan, a decrease of 1237 billion yuan from the previous day. Glass fiber, energy metals, small metals, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries led the gains, while cultural media, education, tourism hotels, and aerospace industries led the losses [8] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF were - 2.05% for the current - month contract, - 0.21% for the next - month contract, 2.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.11% for the next - quarter contract; IH were - 4.13%, - 0.94%, 0.04%, and 1.89% respectively; IC were - 8.08%, - 1.25%, 3.10%, and 4.17% respectively; IM were - 10.18%, - 0.18%, 5.29%, and 6.48% respectively [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed lower the previous day. Overall, the increasing uncertainty in global trade adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - The monthly China CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; the monthly China PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a rate of +0.79%. M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, down 0.40% from the previous value with a rate of - 4.55%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% from the previous value with a rate of - 1.61% [10]. - The dollar index was 99.70, down 0.46 with a rate of - 0.46%. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1272, down 0.004 with a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, with no change in value and a rate of - 0.14%. DR007 was 1.43, down 0.01 with a rate of - 0.86%. R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 with a rate of +1.49%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, up 0.00 with a rate of +0.18%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, down 0.01 with a rate of +0.18% [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple graphs including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 traders in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 traders in various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [14][16][17][20]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation The report shows graphs about the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the issuance of local government bonds, the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T) [24][25][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report presents graphs of the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][34][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows graphs of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [36][39][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes graphs of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][53]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows graphs of the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents graphs of the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][65][69]. Strategy - For single - side trading, with the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuating price of treasury bond futures, the outlook for the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract [4]. - For hedging, as there is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, short - position traders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].